You know what? The top-echelon 3-year-olds that have descended upon Churchill Downs are pretty good! Would it shock you next Saturday evening if, listed in qualifying-points order, Burnham Square, Sandman, Rodriguez, Tiztastic, Tappan Street, East Avenue, Grande, Luxor Cafe, or Baeza emerged from the 20-horse Kentucky Derby scrum draped in roses? And that doesn’t even get to the goliaths, Journalism and Sovereignty. More immediately comes the last Saturday in April, breadsticks before the salad course before the appetizer before May 3’s entree. Dig in. Royal Heroine Few recent California stakes have looked as appetizing as the Royal Heroine, which drew a full field and several contenders. Uncorked won this race a year ago – and has not won since. She ran to that winning form finishing second behind Raqiya and in front of Sacred Wish in the Goldikova, but definitely did not in two March starts following a winter break. The mare is a 6-year-old. She is what she is at this point. The morning line puts Uncorked second choice behind Tirupati. Where did Tirupati’s last two races come from? These connections lost the filly for $25,000 in October, and though they quickly reclaimed her for twice the price, this sudden form peak probably won’t last. Tirupati hit that peak showing speed, and in Sneaker and Hamwood Flier she runs into two serious front-runners: Even if Tirupati sits third, she’ll be going fast. :: Get DRF Kentucky Oaks & Derby Betting Strategies by Marcus Hersh and David Aragona. Full analysis and wager recommendations! I’ll confidently side with Raw Ability while hoping for something higher than the 9-2 morning line. Raw Ability has started her career with three wins over three quite different courses while deploying divergent tactics each race. A 40-1 shot facing 13 foes at Gowran Park in her debut, Raw Ability put herself right into the race, sat professionally in the pocket going around right-handed bends, and kicked home strongly enough over a decent field for the level to win by daylight. That showing got her sold, and Raw Ability likes California, too. Last into the short Del Mar homestretch making her North American debut, she looked like she was shot out of a cannon when jockey Hector Berrios came off cover and got to the far outside with a furlong remaining. At Santa Anita, in a paceless second-level allowance, Raw Ability sat second and produced exactly the same final quarter-mile time as at Del Mar, a flashy 22.41 seconds. Favored Sareeha gained ground the final half-furlong but never would have caught Raw Ability, who idled on the lead before taking off again in a strong gallop-out. Her subsequent work pattern has no holes, and regarding forecast rain, her sire, Belardo, made his mark on soft turf. Woodhaven April turf racing in New York. The course still coming in, not yet summer sun baked, hard and fast – sounds like suitable conditions for a horse who ran well on soft ground in France. And Revolutionnaire doesn’t even require particular conditions to win the Woodhaven. Revolutionnaire improved steadily through his 2-year-old campaign, capped by a competitive, staying-on third in the Prix la Rochette. The two who finished in front of him came home sixth and eighth next out in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, but that’s the best 2-year-old race in France, and it’s not like the Woodhaven is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Revolutionnaire, in fact, was entered in and scratched from the Lagardere, instead showing up in March at Tampa Bay Downs. Revolutionnaire not only raced from last in the Columbia Stakes, he was hard held several lengths behind the next-to-last horse down the backstretch, and while no match for the top two, his final quarter-mile came in at a field-best 23.61. The two that beat him have turned in the best 3-year-old grass races so far this year, and while Reagan’s Wit bounced at Keeneland, fourth-place Early Adopter sharply won an allowance there April 23. Throw in an encouraging post-race work pattern and – viva la Revolutionnaire. :: DRF Kentucky Derby Package: Save on PPs, Clocker Reports, Betting Strategies, and more. Roxelana While I suspect Harbor Springs gets bet below her 3-1 morning line, I don’t expect her to get bet below what I’d consider a fair-value threshold. That’s because I think the mare is a standout. Some might view her last two races as outliers, but they’re really just the culmination of steady development, and the Foley barn, Churchill stalwarts, has Harbor Springs sitting on tilt to win the opening-night feature. Mink’s Palace looms the main danger but probably reaches top form later this spring. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.