A rainy Saturday looks possible from New York to New Jersey and much farther west to Ohio, and if the weather forecasters are correct, we’re looking at turf rain-offs and the chance of a sloppy track for the biggest race of the day, which comes in North Randall, Ohio. Let’s hope the meteorologists are mistaken while the predictions here prove prescient. Ohio Derby A few people (raises hand) have Two Phil’s rated the top 3-year-old in North America. Maybe it’s a bit of a stretch, since his signature win came in the Jeff Ruby at Turfway Park, but Two Phil’s clearly ran the best race finishing second in the Kentucky Derby, and with Derby winner Mage, who has no other stakes wins, regressing in the Preakness and Arcangelo jumping onto the Triple Crown trail to win the Belmont, the division has plenty of room for interpretation at the top. Two Phil’s simply wound up too close to a Derby pace that crushed every other horse as near to it as he, and Two Phil’s, through circumstances more than poor tactics, was forced into a premature move. Even after contesting the pace, he still might have held clear Mage had jockey Jareth Loveberry been able to wait a bit longer making the lead. :: Get ready for summer racing with a DRF Formulator Quarterly PP plan That was seven weeks ago. Two Phil’s has been chilling at Hawthorne Racecourse freshening for what his connections hope will be a powerhouse summer campaign that could include both the Haskell and the Travers. All this, and he’s worth trying to beat Saturday. While Two Phil’s had his major form jump in late spring, Bishops Bay, with only three races behind him, his debut having come in February, still could have that kind of improvement in front of him. He should be twice the price of Two Phil’s here and has a better chance than that of beating the favorite. Bishops Bay took a step back in his second start, making one wonder after that two-turn debut if he were more sprinter than route horse. That does not appear to be the case following the Peter Pan, contested around one turn but over this 1 1/8-mile trip. Arcangelo probably improved from the Peter Pan to the Belmont, but a very good Belmont winner was he, racing relatively close to a pace strong by historical standards, and finishing well after making the lead. Arcangelo is as good as any 3-year-old seen in 2023 – and Bishops Bay nearly beat him in the Peter Pan. Arcangelo had all the outside momentum in that race and looked like he’d sail right past Bishops Bay, who had disputed the lead. Instead, Bishops Bay battled back and lost a head bob, suggesting he was idling in the homestretch. No surprise – this colt still is learning. The raw talent? Elite. It’s not just his form through Arcangelo that impresses; he beat stablemate First Mission in their common debut, and many (raises hand again) are convinced First Mission would’ve won the Preakness had he not been scratched. Might Two Phil’s just assert his superiority? He might. But Bishops Bay is the right guess at a minor upset. Wild Applause This is one of the East Coast grass races susceptible to a rain-off, and trainer Chad Brown, who runs Liguria and Tax Implications on turf, has the right main-track-only horse, Shidabhuti, for dirt. Breath Away’s the likely chalk. Nice filly. Might have moved too early last out. Won’t mind the cutback to a one-turn mile. Not especially appealing as a horse who looks like she won’t be improving on the day. :: Bet the races on DRF Bets! Sign up with code WINNING to get a $250 Deposit Match, $10 Free Bet, and FREE DRF Formulator.  Of Brown’s pair, the comeback runner Tax Implications holds more appeal, but Cecile is the play if the Wild Applause stays on turf. Cecile exits an eye-opening maiden win, her turf debut. A terrible start placed her last behind a modest pace, and she still was last of 12 at the quarter pole. Her strong run was interrupted when she changed to her incorrect lead at the eighth pole, lugging in, but Cecile got back on the right lead to whizz past the leader, getting her final quarter-mile in 22.85 seconds. She doesn’t have to fall as far behind as she did last time and clearly possesses a powerful finish. Ballade No thanks to likely odds-on favorite Artie’s Princess, a 6-year-old in decline, and yes, please, at 12-1 on the morning line on improving 4-year-old Souper Flashy. She’ll press the pace and make her presence felt in her second start of 2023. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.