The annual post-Breeders’ Cup lull has descended over the North American racing landscape. Yet the winners still pay the same as we await more important stakes racing over the next couple off weeks in Kentucky and New York. Native Diver Who ranks as the best older dirt horse with considerable racing experience still eligible for a first-level allowance? Skinner comes to mind. Eleven races into his career and Skinner has visited the winner’s circle once, that way back in February 2023. Beyond his failure to land a knockout blow, Skinner will appear to many as a sucker play, a closer who never quite gets there, and perhaps a horse who has declined from his peak as an early-season 3-year-old. He appears to me as a leading candidate to win his second race in the Native Diver on Saturday at Del Mar. :: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets. It seems fair suggesting Skinner’s close third in the 2023 Santa Anita Derby, where he earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure as an April 3-year-old, stamps him as the highest-level talent in the Native Diver. Ultra Power, the likely favorite, got a higher figure, 104, in his win two back at Del Mar, but that came on Aug. 31 of his 3-year-old season, and I’m not buying it as representative. Ultra Power drummed a soft bunch of first-level allowance foes, and while he clearly returned from a long layoff a far faster horse than before it, I thought his most recent race, a second-level allowance, exposed his limitations. There, Ultra Power got a great setup stalking a fast, contested pace, yet could reach neither of the two horses stopping in front of him. With stablemate Mirahmadi ensuring Tarantino – winner of Ultra Power’s last start – doesn’t make an easy lead, Ultra Power can get another good trip, but as an underlay. Mixto figures to attract support, too, based on his upset victory in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. Go ahead and use that one performance as a measure: I’ll give more weight to Mixto’s other 14, none of which came close to that level. Mixto at least ought to force tempo at some point, another data point in favor of our guy, Skinner. Go back and watch Skinner’s races following his return to action after being scratched from the Kentucky Derby – one abysmal trip after another. The Native Diver was especially egregious, but Skinner generally has suffered from poorly timed runs and lousy early position. He can stay closer to the leaders than a distant last – as evidenced by his one start last year under Saturday’s jockey, Hector Berrios. No sprinter, Skinner made an eye-catching run from the back of a 6 1/2-furlong allowance race, an encouraging comeback showing that should have Skinner sharp enough to notch that elusive second win. Chilukki I expect Two Sharp to offer win odds much lower than her 2-1 morning line but do not expect her to win the Chilukki Stakes. Maybe Two Sharp does lack the focus that connections hope the blinkers will improve. But I’m not sure she’s quite as good as her flashy figures, and even less certain she wants to run this far. Two Sharp went off lower than 2-5 last out because that Keeneland allowance race came up soft – far softer than the one-mile Chilukki – and Brightwork, who beat her at Saratoga, hardly rates as a star. Positano Sunset won’t be 10-1, her morning-line odds, but she’ll still come up fair value. Positano Sunset has faced far stronger competition than has Two Sharp – think Vahva, Society, Scylla, and Zeitlos – and while seven furlongs might best suit her, a one-turn mile works. The Keeneland route, a two-turn experiment, serves as no more than a means to this end. Thunder Rumble Doc Sullivan figures favored here but probably not as strongly as should be the case if, like me, you view him as a standout. Doc Sullivan showed several times, most notably in the Mike Lee, that he possesses both speed and a sharp mid-race move, even going short. I can’t understand why he continually has been held up behind the pace, taking away his greatest asset. I thought he should’ve beaten Pandagate in a pair of stakes last summer, and his Pennsylvania Derby trip was utterly absurd. Even there, racing from a distant last, Doc Sullivan turned in the second-fastest final furlong, and if he’s allowed to express his talent Saturday, he’ll dominate this heavily restricted race. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.