One hit last Saturday, with Bright Future in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, one foul ball, with Skinner in the Pacific Classic, and one big whiff, with Churchtown in the Mint Millions. The major miss came at quirky Kentucky Downs, but we’re going right back to south central Kentucky for this Weekend GamePlan. Kentucky Turf Cup The Kentucky Downs morning line has United Nations winner Therapist as the 7-2 favorite in this rich 1 1/2-mile contest. I’m not buying it. I think his stablemate Red Knight, who finished third in the U.N., is favored. He won the race in 2022 and was second in 2020 and has a much longer track record at this level and distance than Therapist. He’s a less handy horse than Therapist, and many will figure he turns the tables going from 11 furlongs at Monmouth Park to 12 furlongs over a course he clearly handles. This race came up with a modest field for $1.7 million, but such is the current state of the American turf division. The paucity of true Grade 1 horses in turf races from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 miles leaves the door open for a Red Knight or a Therapist to step through. Who, beyond these Mike Maker stablemates, could you really trust in the Turf Cup? Not Santin, a two-time Grade 1 winner over nine furlongs who stretches all the way out to 1 1/2 miles on a course he’s never tried. He’ll get first run on pacesetting Get Smokin, but neither is likely to have the final word. :: Download a free copy of Daily Racing Form's 2023 Kentucky Downs Player's Guide Verstappen is a better bet than his Brendan Walsh-trained stablemate, Santin, but it’s really only the Elkhorn at Keeneland that stamps him as plausible. At age 4, he has far more upside than the dinosaurs in here. Don’t sleep on Another Mystery at a big price, and Spooky Channel has an outside chance. But, going back to Maker, my first thought was that Red Knight would, indeed, reverse the form of the United Nations Stakes. On second thought, Therapist is the play. It’s a decent guess Therapist is in better form now than when he won the Pan American over 1 1/2 miles this past spring, and the gelding might actually suit this testing 1 1/2 miles just as well as he did the 1 3/8 miles at short-stretch Monmouth. Therapist’s work pattern since the U.N. is eye-catching; looking back at all the works through his long career, he’s never strung together fast breezes like this. And any gallop-out afficionado would be dazzled by Therapist’s in the U.N., where he went out around the clubhouse turn like a horse absolutely ready for more distance. Debutante I wanted to get behind Julias Dream here, whose 88 debut Beyer Speed Figure will be generally discounted since it came on turf. The filly seems to move just fine in her dirt works, but the rail draw is a killer. She’s going to wind up a pace casualty, as will several others in this speed-packed field. I have to side with Tamara. Tamara’s career started with a stumbling start from post 1 in a 10-runner dirt sprint. Typically, that would ruin the chances of an unraced 2-year-old, but Tamara took everything in stride and won very nicely, her ears pricked, from off the pace. There’s only one public workout video of her training since her debut, her three-furlong blowout for the Debutante, and once again, she skipped along comfortably, ears pricked. Not only do I feel like you’re getting the filly with the most raw talent in this deep race, Tamara appears to have the right attitude and running style to get a good trip from post 9 and stalk her way into a Grade 1 victory. :: Visit the Del Mar Handicapping Store for Past Performances, Clocker Reports, Picks, Betting Strategies, and more. Smoke Glacken When a first-time starter with fast works for a capable debut outfit shows up in a stakes race, it’s a horse that merits a long look, and Sea Streak is such a horse. Sea Streak might be a New Jersey-bred, but his sire, Sea Wizard, gets precocious, fast horses like Great Navigator, a New Jersey-bred who won his Monmouth debut last summer before finishing second in the Grade 2 Sanford at Saratoga. Sea Streak has been working with 3-year-old Great Navigator as well as 4-year-old Speaking, who won the 2021 Smoke Glacken. Trainer Eddie Owens is high on this colt, and so am I. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.