Canada has been sending smoke to the continental U.S. for a good part of this summer. Woodbine has the first major race card of its 2023 season. Might the Canadians be kind enough to send us a couple of winners? Highlander One Timer not only is a pretty nice turf sprinter but is a lightly raced 4-year-old who comes to the Highlander in his second start after a winter break with some upside. Well and good, but 5-2 in a 10-horse field? That’s not appealing. One Timer does benefit from drawing outside the other speed, of which there appears to be plenty, but he still is likely to be caught up in a taxing pace. Moreover, his only real standout performance of 2022 came at quirky Kentucky Downs, and form from that place often doesn’t travel. Second choice on the morning line is Outlaw Kid. Do you want to take 3-1 or thereabouts on a horse who just was 4-1 winning a second-level allowance? Yes, Outlaw Kid got a 100 Beyer for that showing, but he also got a perfect trip and has a grand total of zero other performances to validate it. At twice the price you could bet that Outlaw Kid truly is going to be the horse that last-race figure suggests, but not at his likely number. Mark Casse trains one potential pace factor, Cadamosto, and it would be convenient if he could help push the tempo and take the starch out of One Timer while Casse’s main hope, Masseto, lies in the weeds. Masseto in any case looks like all the value at something like his 5-1 morning-line odds, though one could see that price winding up meaningfully lower. :: Get ready for summer racing with a DRF Formulator Quarterly PP plan Masseto was a proper 2-year-old of 2021 when he was based in Ireland with Donnacha O’Brien. The close fourth of 17 in the Coventry at Royal Ascot and his third behind precocious, talented Go Bears Go in the Railway provide an encouraging marker of his baseline talent. His career since being imported to North America – not so hot. One start, then a long layoff. One start, then an even longer layoff. But Masseto showed in his latest comeback that he was not merely a 2-year-old. He crushed good Woodbine allowance horses, eased up in the final strides, while racing at a distance short of his best and pulling too hard in the early stages, likely keyed up after the extended vacation. If one had to speculate, one might guess Casse had this race in mind all along, and Masseto’s the one for me. Selene Pro-Casse in the Highlander, one might well be anti-Casse in the Selene, where heavy favorite Wonder Wheel looks worth trying to beat. Wonder Wheel has demonstrably not progressed from age 2 to age 3 and makes her first start over a synthetic surface. No, thank you. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has three entrants and the longest price on the morning line. Be My Sunshine, is the one with the greatest appeal. Be My Sunshine only has one win from three starts and makes her stakes debut but has been in bulky fields all three of her races and has been forced to close into a very slow pace her last two. The Keeneland course favored speed when she was second there to a front-running winner who got an easy lead, and to these eyes the filly looked stronger and more solid than in her first two runs. She’ll need some pace help. :: Bet the races on DRF Bets! Sign up with code WINNING to get a $250 Deposit Match, $10 Free Bet, and FREE DRF Formulator.  Stephen Foster Having thought early in 2022 that Smile Happy was going to win the Derby that spring, it was gratifying to finally see the horse express his latent talent last month in the Alysheba, where he ran faster on the Beyer scale than any two-turn dirt horse so far this year. Why does Brian Hernandez Jr. wind up on trainer Ken McPeek’s second entrant, Rattle N Roll? Hard to say, but the feeling still is that Smile Happy more likely than not will at least come close to reproducing his Alysheba. That said, Stilleto Boy at something close to his 6-1 morning line odds would be hard to pass. Chronically undervalued, Stilleto Boy has gotten a nice freshening since he nearly overcame a demanding trip in the Oaklawn Handicap. He is going straight to the front in the Foster over a track surface that often has carried speed. This is a talented, brave, and underrated horse. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.