LOUISVILLE, Ky. – As always, there is so much on the line in this year’s Breeders’ Cup: bragging rights, year-end championships, the front end of outsized purses, and residual boosts in breeding value that can make the front end of some of those outsized purses look like chump change. Those are just some of the things at stake in this Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs. Oh yes, the fight for the soul of the history of Thoroughbred racing in the United States is also at stake. Wait, what? I know that statement may sound inflammatory and hyperbolic. I understand. But I’m sorry. There is a part of me that genuinely believes that. It has all to do with the big horse who is not at this Breeders’ Cup, a highly accomplished horse who is there, and their candidacies for Horse of the Year. I am talking, of course, about Justify and Accelerate. Justify, for those who aren’t old enough to remember since he was officially retired all the way back on July 25, became just our 13th Triple Crown winner this year. Moreover, his sweep of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes (which concluded an undefeated career) included a degree of difficulty that did not apply to the 12 Triple Crown winners before him. Specifically, Justify did not race as a 2-year-old. So, when he won the Derby, he became the first horse in a mere 136 years to do so without having raced at 2. That also means Justify became the first to sweep the Triple Crown without having raced at 2. As for Accelerate, by any measure, he has had an outstanding campaign this year. He won the Grade 2 San Pasqual in February, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March, the Grade 1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita in May, the Grade 1 Pacific Classic in August, and the Grade 1 Awesome Again in September. Some folks have said that if Accelerate wins the Breeders’ Cup Classic, he is their Horse of the Year. And some folks appeared to be itching to cast their Horse of the Year vote for Accelerate well before the Classic was even drawn. How can I say that? Because for the last 2 1/2 months, Accelerate has ranked No. 1 in the NTRA’s weekly top 10 poll, comfortably ahead of Justify. And most, if not all, of the people who participate in that poll also have Eclipse Award votes. :: Visit our Breeders' Cup one-stop shop for PPs, Clocker Reports, and more (As an aside, some might counter that NTRA poll voters got off Justify because he retired. Well, Justify in retirement still garnered enough votes to rank second in the poll. So, I’m not sold on how much of an impact Justify’s retirement really had in the minds of poll voters.) Look, reasonable, intelligent people can disagree, and especially so in our game, where if you don’t have a strong opinion, you don’t have anything. But I must admit, and maybe it’s my failing, I can’t believe what’s going on here. Even though he never ran after the Belmont Stakes, Justify should still be an absolute mortal lock for Horse of the Year, no matter what happens in this Breeders’ Cup. Honestly, and with due respect to Accelerate, whose bad luck it is to be having the year he’s having this year, I’m shocked there is even a hint of doubt. My belief goes beyond the fact that all nine Triple Crown winners after the Horse of the Year award was officially formalized in 1936 were honored as Horse of the Year the year they registered their Triple Crown sweeps. My belief goes straight to the fact that, as impactful as the Breeders’ Cup is, the Triple Crown remains the Holy Grail of American racing. The Triple Crown – winning three races in three different states on three different tracks at three different distances in a narrow five-week span – is quite possibly the most difficult task to complete in all of sport, not just ours. Moreover, the same horse can run in the Breeders’ Cup Classic several times, but a horse has only one chance at the Triple Crown. It is what everyone in the game wants most to win. That’s why two to three times as many people attend the Kentucky Derby than will show up at Churchill Downs on Saturday. Perhaps one reason why this debate is even taking place is because Justify’s Triple Crown sweep came three short years after American Pharoah won the Triple Crown. The optics suggest some folks might feel the Triple Crown has suddenly become less difficult to sweep and have no qualms penalizing Justify for that, all while seemingly forgetting that there was a 37-year gap between Triple Crown sweeps until American Pharoah came along. And it was during that long drought that many people (maybe some of these same people) lamented that we would never see another Triple Crown winner because the series had become too difficult for today’s game. The merits of these horses? Okay, it is true that Justify beat Bravazo in the Preakness and Gronkowski in the Belmont. But Accelerate beat Mubtaahij in the Big Cap and Dr. Dorr in the Gold Cup. So, please, let’s not go there. Even if Accelerate completes a fantastic season with a win in the Classic, voting against Justify for Horse of the Year could dangerously devalue the Triple Crown, certainly in a present sense, and quite likely in a past sense, too. If Justify were not Horse of the Year, would prior Triple Crown winners be viewed with the same reverence? I mean, no offense to the Breeders’ Cup, which is tremendous in many ways. But the Triple Crown is the best thing American racing has, and seeing it diminished in any fashion frankly scares the heck out of me. Of course, much here depends on Accelerate winning the Classic, which is by no means a given. While he is definitely the horse to beat, Accelerate does not have to win. His Awesome Again was his weakest victory this year, both visually and in terms of speed figures. Sure, it was only a prep for the Classic, and we all know he can do much better. But Accelerate seems vulnerable off that outing, as though maybe his form has slipped a bit, and that’s not what you want to see in a favorite for the Classic, or a favorite in any race, for that matter. My Classic play is Catholic Boy. Catholic Boy went turf to dirt with aplomb in the Travers Stakes, winning off by four lengths, and his performance was flattered when Travers runner-up Mendelssohn came back to be an excellent third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup after taking part in an insane early pace battle. Moreover, as one who is also highly proficient on turf, Catholic Boy should love the main track at Churchill, which has a history of being kind to turf lovers. If Catholic Boy wins the Classic, it will be his third straight Grade 1 victory. He won the Belmont Derby on turf before the Travers, and the Classic would be a major score over older opponents. I’ll venture a guess that if Catholic Boy does win, his unique blend of accomplishment and versatility would spark a movement to make him the choice over Justify for champion 3-year-old male. Please. Don’t get me started.