LEXINGTON, Ky. – A spike in the rate of 2-year-old fatalities in 2020 that has since receded was most likely attributable to a change in training patterns caused by the disruptions affecting the industry during the first six months of the coronavirus pandemic, officials said on Wednesday at the Welfare and Safety of the Racehorse Summit held at the Keeneland sales pavilion. The spike drew the attention of epidemiologists and veterinary specialists because of the dramatic percentage jump in the rate of fatalities for 2-year-olds, a category that has perennially been the lowest of all age groups in the U.S. racing population. In 2020, the rate jumped 43 percent compared to the prior year, from 1.18 fatalities per 1,000 starts to 1.69, the highest rate of any age group that year, at a time when fatality rates have generally been declining for all racing groups across the board (It’s important to note that while there was an increase of only six fatalities in 2020 when compared to 2019, from 29 to 35, the large increase in the rate was due to a dramatic drop in the number of races held in 2020 due to track closures related to the pandemic.) :: Get ready for Saratoga and Del Mar with a Quarterly subscription to DRF Past Performances Dr. Tim Parkin, an epidemiologist at the University of Bristol in the U.K. who has examined the data on fatalities since the launch of the Equine Injury Database in 2008, said that the 2020 spike caught him and others by surprise. “It did throw us a little bit when we saw the figures,” Parkin said, during an annual presentation at the summit analyzing the numbers from the data base. “That was not something we were expecting at all.” The fatality rate for 2-year-old racehorses is a subject of intense focus for the racing industry because animal-rights groups frequently focus on deaths of 2-years-olds to claim that racing relies on a cruel and inhumane practice. However, research conducted around the world has consistently shown that horses that train and race as 2-year-olds overwhelmingly have better health and performance outcomes than horses that do not. In addition, the data itself is strongly supported by well-established scientific principles underlying the physiology, anatomy, and development of young horses. In response to the spike, Parkin said that he examined workout data for 2-year-olds for the past 10 years in search of any abnormalities in the 2020 data. The analysis found that 2-year-olds had fewer workouts during the spring and summer of 2020 than in any other year analyzed, almost certainly as a result of the uncertainty surrounding the racing industry in the wake of widespread track closures throughout the spring and summer. “Number of workouts per horse was clearly impacted by what was going on with those horses in the spring of that year,” Parkin said. Dr. Larry Bramlage, the renowned equine orthopedic surgeon at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital, said in a separate panel at the summit that the reduction in full-speed workouts in 2020 could have caused fatality rates to spike during races later in the year because of the disruption in the typical bone-remodeling processes that young horses undergo while training. Specifically, he said that in talks with trainers, he found that many young horses were galloped more frequently in the spring and summer of 2020 but had fewer full-speed workouts than normal. :: Bet the races on DRF Bets! Sign up with code WINNING to get a $250 Deposit Match, $10 Free Bet, and FREE DRF Formulator. “So what we’ve now done is wound up the engine to a much higher level than what we’ve wound up the undercarriage,” Dr. Bramlage said, stressing that the theory was based on his professional opinion. “And if you are just maintaining the same speed, you are not going to build bone. … So they could go faster, but the skeleton was not as prepared.” In 2021, the fatality rate for 2-year-olds declined to its lowest level yet, 0.98 per 1,000 starts. Since the database was established, the fatality rate for 2-year-olds has dropped 30 percent, from 1.4 per 1,000 starts to the 2021 figure, and Parkin said that the sharp decline back to normality in 2021 was a relief. “It was gratifying to see in the most recent data that the risk of fatality for 2-year-olds has come back to what we see as the normal trend,” Parkin said.