$400,000 Lecomte Stakes, Fair Grounds, Feb. 18, 2023 (50 qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 15 for third, 10 for fourth, and 5 for fifth)  Winner: Angel of Empire, by Classic Empire Trainer: Brad Cox Jockey: Luis Saez Owner: Albaugh Family Stable Distance / time: 1 1/8 miles / 1:51.47 Win margin: Three-quarters Beyer: 89  On a day when the Fair Grounds main track produced winners from all positions and seemed about average in terms of speed, the Risen Star Stakes, the first 100-point qualifier on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, turned into a fall-apart race. No one anywhere near the early pace played a final part, and four of the first five home were 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th after a quarter mile had been run. On the face of things, splits of 23.34 and 47.50 look fast for this surface but not breakaway, yet they broke the speed into bits.   A fast pace makes possible a fast race – we did not see that here. The final Risen Star time was the slowest among five modern-day renewals at 1 1/8 miles and slower by a wide margin than any of the 10 modern editions of the Louisiana Derby run at the trip. Granted, the Louisiana Derby comes more than a month later and is supposed to draw a better field, and the number of Risen Stars at the distance makes for a small sample. But put everything together, and this just doesn’t come up an especially fast race. The original Beyer, 87 before an adjustment, might more accurately reflect how fast the winner ran.   That winner, ANGEL OF EMPIRE, had been consigned to the Indiana wing of the Brad Cox operation over the summer and into the fall, winning a maiden route race in his debut and a first-level route allowance third time out after a modest turf performance at Kentucky Downs. Both starts required racing in traffic and sustaining a run – and in hindsight, they likely were underrated by the betting public, since Angel of Empire won at 13-1. The key to his stakes debut, the Smarty Jones, came after the finish wire, where the jockey clearly was under instructions to ride Angel of Empire out like the race ended midway around the turn. Trainer Brad Cox clearly had a longer contest in mind – this one.  :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Angel of Empire, Luis Saez riding for the first time, broke out, staggered slightly a couple strides into the race, then was taken to the two path and finally over the rail to save ground into the turn. Saez, though, didn’t want to get buried along the fence; he went back to the No. 2 path at the end of the far turn and kept his options open racing from there and slightly wider down the backstretch, eight rivals in front of him, five behind.   From the 9/16 pole to the half-mile marker, Saez started getting serious, moving his hands a bit to make sure Angel of Empire held position, stoking him up for a run. Going through traffic around the turn to the three-furlong marker, Angel of Empire, experienced in racing among other horses, had no issue navigating tricky territory. Pushed out from three paths off the rail at the five-sixteenths pole until he was nearly six wide at the quarter pole, Angel of Empire kept coming, running along between horses, changing leads somewhat late at the three-sixteenths, gaining the lead at the sixteenth pole, and pushing out to a hard-earned victory followed by a solid gallop-out. Cox felt certain Angel of Empire would handle 1 1/8 miles and was correct.  SUN THUNDER, a well-beaten fourth over a sloppy track in the Southwest, his stakes debut, bobbled at the start, lacked early speed, and was ridden into the first turn by jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. to keep from falling completely out of touch with the pack. Twelfth onto the backstretch, Sun Thunder stuck toward the inside at the back of the lead main body of runners, and when the turn loomed and a wall of horses blocked his path, Hernandez had little choice but to stay inside. He managed to find room for his mount to improve at the three-eighths pole, had to wait just a couple beats at the five-sixteenths for a spot to open between horses, passed a tiring foe along his inside in upper stretch to get over to the fence, and outfinished all save the winner. Sun Thunder improved but was fortunate to find space to operate when he needed it and traveled the shortest distance among the top finishers after saving so much ground.  TWO PHIL’S ran a race remarkably similar to his Lecomte last month, where he surged to the lead and was run down by Instant Coffee, finishing second. Two Phil’s was bumped at the start when CURLY JACK broke out, and from post 10, jockey Jareth Loveberry did well to get his mount into the No. 2 path by the turn. Between horses while sixth down the backstretch, sitting right behind pace-pressing HARLOCAP, Two Phil’s launched a sharp bid at the three-eighths that carried him to the lead as he passed Harlocap at the quarter pole. Just as in the Lecomte, Two Phil’s tried to fight back, but Angel of Empire and Sun Thunder were going slightly better, Two Phil’s grimly holding third over TAPIT’S CONQUEST. Mark him down for extra credit given his somewhat early move and position closer to the taxing pace than any of the three around him.  Tapit’s Conquest was asked for some speed out of the gate but has none and went into the first turn near the back of the field’s main body, ridden along a bit to maintain position. He gained no ground down the backstretch run, went into the bend several paths off the rail, and wound up with the widest far-turn trip, stuck some six paths off the rail when passing PRIVATE CREED at the three-eights. Tapit’s Conquest raced outside Angel of Empire from about the quarter pole to the eighth pole, looking like he might win, before wilting slightly the dying strides. Combining the fact he’s lightly raced with this ground-losing journey, he turned in a fine effort.  SINGLE RULER, coming off a maiden route win, had no speed from post 2 and by the time he got to the backstretch had only Sun Thunder behind him (besides two distant trailers). Approaching the half-mile pole, Single Ruler looked like he was going to make a run up the rail, but instead went flat as Sun Thunder took his spot and he lost several lengths at the start of the far turn. Taken off the rail and finding his way to the far outside, Single Ruler reengaged and passed several horses, going his final furlong in 12.72, second-best in the race. A sneaky decent performance.  Harlocap entered after a third-out California maiden route win and made his first start for trainer Steve Asmussen, who got the horse from the Bob Baffert barn earlier in the week. Harlocap pressed pacesetting Determinedly much of the trip, put that foe away passing the five-sixteenths marker, tried to dig in when confronted by Two Phil’s, but was spent after getting too much of the pace.   CRUPI, as he has done in every start, broke poorly; trainer Todd Pletcher was hoping Crupi could at least stay in touch with the field, but that didn’t work out. Battling for a distant last with 228-1 shot QUIET AS MIDNIGHT down the backstretch, never looking comfortable. Crupi belatedly found stride after turning for home, but it was much too late to come anywhere near the winner despite a final furlong in a field-best 12.61. The colt still has a lot to learn.  Curly Jack broke out and was bumped at the start, raced sixth and seventh while along the fence down the backstretch, remained in the bridle into the far turn and was hard-ridden at the three-furlong marker. Still in contention, Curly Jack split horses before the five-sixteenths and continued on decently for another quarter-mile before beating a steady retreat to the wire like a tired horse who needed the race.  VICTORY FORMATION, the 9-5 favorite, didn’t have a perfect beginning from post 13, but despite looking just about as fast as anyone in the race he failed to make the lead, unlike in his sharp one-mile Smarty Jones win at Oaklawn. Flavien Prat kept his mount a few lengths off the lead and in the clear down the backstretch and into the far turn, but Victory Formation never responded and ran flat to the finish.  :: Take your handicapping to the next level and play with FREE DRF Past Performances - Formulator or Classic.  SHAQ DIESEL, a 184-1 shot in from Florida, pressed the leaders to the half-mile pole before beginning a steady fade.   SILVER HEIST lacked speed from an outside draw, raced from eighth while outside down the backstretch, and never came close to getting involved.   Private Creed, making his dirt debut, was wide and spinning his wheels at the half-mile pole, beaten nearly 40 lengths in the end.  Quiet As Midnight looked on paper like he had no business in the Risen Star and ran the same way. Determinedly proved quicker than I realized, setting the pace while inside; he was intended for a turn back to sprints rather than starting in the Risen Star, and surely that will be the case after this drubbing.  :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.