$1,000,000 Rebel Stakes, Feb. 25, 2023 (50 qualifying points for first, 20 for second, 15 for third, 10 for fourth, and 5 for fifth)  Winner: Confidence Game, by Candy Ride Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: James Graham Owner: Don’t Tell My Wife Stable Distance / time: 1 1/16 miles / 1:44.21 (sloppy, sealed) Win margin: 1 length Beyer: 94  Horses trained at Fair Grounds were favorite and second choice for the $1 million Rebel. Brad Cox had won Derby preps the last two weeks in New York (Hit Show in the Withers) and New Orleans (Angel of Empire in the Risen Star). The Cox-trained GIANT MISCHIEF was favored for most of the Rebel betting, but it was Cox-trained VERIFYING, as expected, who went post-ward the 3-2 chalk over 2-1 Giant Mischief.   Instead of Cox, though, it was Desormeaux. Trainer Keith Desormeaux doesn’t buy yearlings on a big budget, yet more years than not he comes up with a horse that at least sniffs the edge of the Kentucky Derby trail if not setting out on it entirely. CONFIDENCE GAME also had been doing his training in New Orleans after racing there Jan. 18 in the Lecomte, where he was a well-beaten third, albeit with excuses. Racing three wide with no cover and close to a taxing pace, Confidence Game “was the one horse in the Lecomte who clearly outperformed his finishing position,” as we wrote in the Lecomte analysis.  Before pressing the Lecomte pace, Confidence Game had led in a Churchill Downs first-level route allowance victory, but here, he settled comfortably into a stalking position, going professionally. Since this race was run over a sloppy, sealed surface, the usual wet-track caveats apply. The race shape was fast early and middle, and slow late – like most American dirt races. The strong quarter and half, 22.75 and 46.17, did take their toll on the front-runners while assisting runner-up RED ROUTE ONE and third-place REINCARNATE. Confidence Game gets extra credit, as he was the only one anywhere near the first flight of runners to finish with decent energy.   :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Confidence Game under James Graham broke just okay, Graham throwing the reins at him a couple times asking for some speed, but the colt simply was outrun a bit into the turn. Sixth between horses starting to take the bend, Confidence Game briefly thought about getting rank before quickly settling. He was and fifth, behind four horses going in two pairs, as the field went onto the backstretch.  Four deep to the half-mile pole, as everyone stayed at least one full path off the rail, with GUN PILOT on his inside and BOURBON BASH trying to push between them, Confidence Game held his position into the far turn. With Bourbon Bash threatening to force him out, Graham asked Confidence Game for more run at the three-furlong pole and got it. Confidence Game, going widest, leapt into the fray at the five-sixteenths pole and was five wide and less than a length from the lead at the quarter pole. Pushed even farther out into the track, he took the measure of Giant Mischief, who had inherited the lead, while straightening for the wire. After brushing with Giant Mischief, Confidence Game went clear, drifted in slightly, then back out all the way to about the No. 8 path. He failed to ever change leads, but comfortably held clear late-running Red Route One at the finish. Red Route One never got past on the gallop-out and Confidence Game still was going pretty good way back over near the six-furlong marker at the head of the backstretch.  Stamina looks to be no issue for this colt, whose dam is a sister to the great Zenyatta. The wet track might have helped; maybe it made no difference. Confidence Game, at 119 pounds, got three pounds from third-place Reincarnate while giving two to Red Route One, begging the question of why one would run a Kentucky Derby qualifying race at anything other than level weights. This just looks like a colt made for route racing who is getting good at the right time.   Red Route One broke well enough but, as in the Southwest Stakes, quickly dropped to last – a long way last. Halfway through, Red Route One in 11th was still eight lengths behind the 10th-place horse. His third quarter-mile, a robust 23.36 seconds, was fastest in the field by more than a second. That caught Red Route One up to the pack, and coming very wide into the stretch, he still had momentum. Before the eighth pole, Bourbon Bash came out into Reincarnate, who then bumped Red Route One’s hindquarters, briefly slowing his move. Clear of that scrum, Red Route One, who’d changed leads perfectly in upper stretch, switched back to the “wrong lead” and still finished willingly to be second by 1 1/2 lengths. This colt, whose lone win came on turf, did get the right race flow here, but now has run three good ones in a row and should have no problem with longer trips. His complete lack of positional pace is a detriment.   Reincarnate ran as encouraging a race as anyone. A pace player in his two SoCal routes, the most recent a maiden win, Reincarnate shipped, caught his first wet track, was forced into a completely foreign race position, found trouble, and still ran a good third. Reincarnate broke all right but couldn’t make the front and after being squeezed slightly went into the turn ahead of only two foes. There he stayed, going comfortably enough with no one to his inside, down the backstretch and into the turn. Still inside and eighth at the five-sixteenths marker, Reincarnate was guided outside after turning for home and had run inside Red Route One at the three-sixteenths pole. Then, Bourbon Bash came right into his path, forcing jockey John Velazquez to check and costing Reincarnate dearly at a key moment. The colt athletically recovered in a couple strides, picked up where he’d left off and came to the wire finishing faster than the two who beat him. Bob Baffert, who trained the colt until a few days before the Rebel, giving way to Tim Yakteen, rarely lets his young horses gallop out much, and Reincarnate shut it down shortly after the wire. He looks like he could be something.  Don’t hold Verifying’s fourth-place finish against him, either. Away cleanly from post 1, he was taken lightly in hand to stalk the speed from the inside, racing inside stablemate Giant Mischief down the backstretch while pulling a little harder than ideal. Florent Geroux tapped his mount on the shoulder at the five-sixteenths, hoping to split tiring leaders POWERFUL and FROSTED DEPARTURE, but that gap never came. As Geroux steered right to go outside Frosted Departure, Bourbon Bash rushed into that spot. Geroux tried to get outside Bourbon Bash but had to abandon that plan when Bourbon Bash bore out, eventually diving back down to the inside for room. Once clear, Verifying didn’t have the late burst Reincarnate showed, but keep in mind Verifying had been only a couple lengths off the strong pace. This was a sneakily solid performance.  Bourbon Bash, a 77-1 shot, broke well from post 10, had a touch of pace, and was just about to be angled in to save at least a touch of ground into the turn when TALLADEGA blew the bend and bumped him off stride. Bourbon Bash came inside Talladega onto the backstretch and continued progressing on the straightaway, getting between Confidence Game and Gun Pilot into the turn. Briefly stuck behind horses at the five-sixteenths, Bourbon Bash started to make a move inside Giant Mischief but had to go outside when that horse drifted in. The rider let her mount drift into Reincarnate’s path and might have been disqualified had Bourbon Bash finished in front of Reincarnate, but Bourbon Bash was pretty well gassed and went evenly to the line.  Giant Mischief was taken off stride into the first turn as Frosted Departure crossed in front of him without adequate clearance. He got back into better position, pinned his ears a bit down the backstretch, barely assenting to rating tactics while stalking in the second flight. Other than being close to the fast pace, he got a good trip sitting third or fourth outside Verifying, getting first run on the speed and hitting the front with a wide move at the quarter pole. He failed to match strides with the winner and went evenly at best from the three-sixteenths home, but while Giant Mischief probably winds up best as a one-turn horse, he did have a right to get tired considering the pace and the fact he hadn’t raced since Dec. 16.  Gun Pilot stalked from mid-pack, crept into closer position at the half-mile pole, but played no real part thereafter. Accounting for the way riders avoided the fence, he might have spent too much time along the worst part of the surface, but that alone can’t entirely excuse his sound defeat.   Frosted Departure rushed up from post 11 to contest the pace, hung in there to the quarter pole, then beat a steady retreat.  Powerful was sent up to lead, raced inside Frosted Departure, and gave way in the homestretch. EVENT DETAIL went along near the back of the pack from the start and never improved. Talladega’s only impact was causing problems for Bourbon Bash on the first turn.  :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.