$1 million Louisiana Derby, March. 25, 2023 [100 qualifying points for first, 40 for second, 30 for third, 20 for fourth, and 10 for fifth] Winner: Kingsbarns, by Uncle Mo Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Flavien Prat Owner: Spendthrift Farm Distance / time: 1 3/16 miles / 1:57.33 Win margin: 3 1/2 Beyer: 95  CAGLIOSTRO broke through the gate before the start and JACE’S ROAD popped the gate open without breaking – this is less than ideal in a major Kentucky Derby prep race. Anecdotally, horses that break through the starting gate often fail to run to form. Also anecdotally, through the years, the Fair Grounds starting gate has had a very sensitive trigger.   What followed, when the whole field broke from the gate, was an utterly paceless race, KINGSBARNS and Flavien Prat taking the initiative to dictate terms and make the most of their tactical advantage. Watch the race from a wide angle between the quarter pole and the finish, and what you see is a blob of horses tracking the loose leader with very little change of position. DISARM made some solid progress to get into second and SUN THUNDER finished all right, but no one mid-pack or farther behind had any shot to win this race.   The Beyer feels aggressive. Randy Moss, who makes the figures at Fair Grounds said the variant was split on the day, the determination being made the track slowed through the last five dirt races. This is the only race all meet run over 1 3/16 miles, so it’s not like one can draw on a vast sample of par times. But Wells Bayou in 2020, the first year the race was run at this distance, went 1:56.47, Hot Rod Charlie went 1:55.46 in 2021, and Epicenter clocked 1:54.38 last year. Obviously, we’re talking raw times a year apart – apples to oranges – but that’s at least a rough context.  :: Take your handicapping to the next level and play with FREE DRF Past Performances - Formulator or Classic.  The only two horses ridden with real intent for the lead were Kingsbarns, who broke from post 6, and Jace’s Road, who started from post 11. Kingsbarns initially went clear before Jace’s Road caught and briefly overtook him going into the turn, but Kingsbarns, despite not going very fast, was able to scoot clear around the turn. Florent Geroux, the jockey on Jace’s Road, said he asked his mount to keep up and Jace’s Road was unable to produce the necessary pace – which seems like a real negative considering how slow they were going: 49.60 for the first half-mile.   Holding a lead going around the far turn, Flavien Prat aboard Kingsbarns nudged his horse along, hands moving into the base of Kingsbarns’s neck, while at the three-eighths pole, Geroux, who knew what was happening, really started riding Jace’s Road. Jace’s Road did close the gap from the five-sixteenths to the quarter pole, at which point Prat got more serious with Kingsbarns, twice throwing the right rein at him, as Kingsbarns responded and dashed away. Prat went a couple times to a right-handed crop, but this race was all but over at the eighth pole, Kingsbarns going his final 1 1/2 furlongs in 18.20, which was faster than any other portion of the race.   Final takeaway regarding the winner? Kingsbarns comes out of this clearly looking more capable than he came into it. He did have to deal with a somewhat demanding trip first time out, beat a soft field with an easy trip at Tampa, and now had his race gifted to him. He’s not exactly well seasoned.  Disarm, making his stakes debut, his third start, and just his second since Saratoga, broke all right from post 5, brushed with Sun Thunder to his left, went on a loose rein for a half-furlong as he drifted down toward the rail, wanted to rush into a gap along the fence, at which point jockey Joel Rosario took a hold as Disarm wound up seventh into the turn.   Sixth down the backstretch, third horse back along the rail, Disarm was stuck behind his stablemate SHOPPER’S REVENGE, steadying ever so slightly at the seven-sixteenths pole and losing perhaps a length and a half. Disarm was revving up at the five-sixteenths but had nowhere to run until Shoppers Revenge came off the fence at the quarter pole, where he came through willingly, put his head down, and finished fastest while no match for the perfect-trip winner. This was a good, meaningful step forward for Disarm, who gained valuable experience and is very much one to watch coming out of the race.   Jace’s Road got all the benefit of the slow pace but lacked Kingsbarns's finishing kick, his final seven-sixteenths-mile time only eighth fastest among 12 runners. Racing for the first time in front bandages, Jace’s Road at least confirmed he’s exponentially better on a fast track than a wet one, but even with his third-place finish, a vast improvement over his Southwest Stakes performance, it’s hard to come away with the notion he’s near the head of his class.  Shopper’s Revenge broke just so-so from the rail, but might’ve had a chance to shoot through before the turn and lead. Instead, the rider took a big hold as his mount’s head popped up into the air, Shopper’s Revenge settling around the turn and going along in the pocket behind Kingsbarns. Shopper’s Revenge found himself a little stuck before the five-sixteenths pole but got out at the quarter pole, had clear sailing in the stretch, and was lucky to hold fourth.   :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Sun Thunder, a big lanky colt who’s not great out of the gate, had four behind him after a half-furlong, tried to sneak between horses while two wide going into the turn, but failed to get through the hole as the rider had to take a hold and race from eighth. Sun Thunder was eighth down the backstretch, one path outside and about one length behind Disarm. When his stablemate DENINGTON made a half-mile move to come wide around TAPIT’S CONQUEST, who’d been racing outside and just behind Sun Thunder, things got tricky. Denington was going better than Tapit’s Conquest into the turn and as Tapit’s Conquest tried to push forward and keep up, it shuffled back Sun Thunder, who now had a rallying INSTANT COFFEE immediately to his outside. Sun Thunder’s ears were pricked at the five-sixteenths pole, the colt ready to do some running, but he had a wall of horses in front of him and only two behind him. Things finally opened up along the inside at the quarter pole, where Sun Thunder leapt into action and looked like he meant business. But after going well enough to the sixteenth pole, he seemed to flatten a bit the final half-furlong and couldn’t even run down Shopper’s Revenge to get fourth. His was among the tougher trips in the Louisiana Derby, but I’d have liked to see him finish off his run with a little more oomph.  Instant Coffee, the 3-2 favorite, wasn’t in a terrible spot after a sixteenth of a mile, but by the first turn he had only CURLY JACK and BASELINE BEATER behind him, and all pretty much was already lost. The rider was after him at the half-mile pole, and while Instant Coffee did deliver a decent wide run around the bend to the quarter pole, he soon flattened out and was fortunate to hold sixth over Tapit’s Conquest. Instant Coffee frankly looked small and overmatched in the homestretch, and one wonders if his Lecomte Stakes win in January will mark the high point of his winter and spring.   Tapit’s Conquest hardly was incredible, but he was better than his finishing position. He had a touch of early speed, just enough to get stuck three to four paths wide around the first turn, and was three wide when Denington cruised up outside him at about the three-furlong marker. That stuck Tapit’s Conquest behind horses into the homestretch, and when no hole opened between rivals, the rider was forced to take a right turn off heels and get to the far outside. While Tapit’s Conquest was going sideways many of his rivals were going forward, and at the furlong grounds, finally clear, he had only two beat. He turned in one of the better final eighth-miles but all for naught at that point.  Poor Cagliostro broke all the way through the gate before the start and had to be led back around and reloaded. What a way to make a stakes debut. He stalked the pace and went evenly late, but I can’t hold it against him given the false start.  Baseline Beater broke slightly outward from post 12 and had zero early speed. Racing from last of 12, he was under a ride past the three-furlong marker but didn’t get out of last until the final furlong. He finished decently but looked overmatched coming in and can’t win even a minor stakes race where the pace doesn’t fall apart unless he develops some tactical speed.  Denington made that move from the half-mile pole around the turn and was going decently at the quarter pole, then lost all momentum, checking in 10th. Curly Jack used to have some pace but doesn’t now. He went along at the back of the pack and never came close to contending. SINGLE RULER traveled in the bridle while racing near the vanguard, briefly was stuck behind foes coming into the homestretch, but had no zip while finishing slowest.  :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.