$1 million Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, April 1, 2023 [100 qualifying points for first, 40 for second, 30 for third, 20 for fourth, and 10 for fifth] Winner: Forte, by Violence Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Irad Ortiz Owner: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable Distance/time: 1 1/8 miles, 1:49.37 (corrected timing from originally posted 1:48.51) Win margin: 1 length Beyer Speed Figure: 95 A fourth Grade 1 in April of his 3-year-old season, and six wins from seven starts, FORTE has put together one of the more impressive résumés of recent vintage for a horse at this stage of his career. But what of this particular race, especially vis-à-vis Forte’s progression through the winter and spring, and what it means for the Kentucky Derby. Reaction has been all over the place. Many believe Forte had a bad trip. I can’t get behind that. He did experience ground loss, nearly inevitable breaking from post 11, but Forte raced in the clear most of the way, never got stopped, and didn’t lose that much ground. The race was mistimed, crediting Forte for a far faster finish than he actually put forth, and with the adjusted clocking, Forte’s Beyer Speed Figure wound up dropping from a 98 in the Fountain of Youth to a 95. Speed figure systems that account for ground loss might see things differently. One could be of two minds here. Did you want Forte to break the clock and then be vulnerable to likely regression in the Derby? Better to take a more incremental pattern to Louisville, but some sort of forward movement would have gone farther to justifying the price that Forte, pending the Blue Grass and Santa Anita Derby, figures to be the first Saturday in May. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2023: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Fidgety in the gate and standing with his head cocked to the left, Forte still got away cleanly, but jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. didn’t use him much out of the gate. Instead, Ortiz laid back and tried to secure a spot as close to the fence as he could. But when Forte was 10th on the early part of the first turn, Ortiz asked him to get somewhat better position. Forte responded, going past NAUTICAL STAR and SHAQ DIESEL, though not by much. Then comes 16 lost seconds. The pan shot of the field is so tight that only half the runners are visible turning onto the backstretch. There’s no head-on replay available. Can’t say what happened during this period. Finally, the video switches to a drone shot and Forte is four paths off the fence, vying for seventh with IL MIRACOLO. Then we’re back to the pan shot going to the half-mile pole and Forte has returned to the screen. The fraction comes up a quick 46.71 seconds (all the fractional times in the race were correct – only the final was wrong) and Ortiz has gotten to work on Forte, who begins moving up wide. Forte goes past JUNGFRAU to get into sixth with three furlongs to run, then passes WEST COAST COWBOY, but he is not moving with real sharpness and is about three paths wide at the quarter pole when MAGE comes roaring up to his outside and flies right past. Horses generally don’t win when a rival goes by them this quickly with so little race left. This is a key point of analysis, this final quarter-mile, especially if you are going to believe in Forte. The announcer says, “Forte’s locked in!” but that’s not accurate. Ortiz never stopped riding and Forte never was put in a box. Mage’s passing seemed to shake Forte from his torpor. The colt’s ears went up and his stride lengthened as Ortiz steered out to follow Mage. Forte might have lost three-quarters of a length between the three-sixteenth pole and the eighth pole, but just there, he found something Mage and CYCLONE MISCHIEF, the other horse still ahead of him, don’t have in their arsenal. By the sixteenth pole, Forte was within a length of Mage, who had taken the lead, and in a couple more strides it was evident he'd win. Ortiz put his stick away, Forte passed with surprising ease, and right there at the wire his ears flicked straight up. :: Get Gulfstream Park Clocker Reports from Mike Welsch and the Clocker Team. Available every race day.  Forte’s final quarter-mile was clocked in 25.40. He went from a 12.84 furlong from the quarter pole to the eighth pole, to a 12.56 from the furlong grounds to the finish, so Forte really was accelerating at the end, extremely rare for an April 3-year-old in a 1 1/8-mile dirt race. And not just accelerating, but from his body language, doing it pretty easily. Between the immediate response after Mage passed, the speed of his final furlong, and the reserves Forte still appeared to have at the finish, I’d have to take away more positive signs than negative from Forte’s Florida Derby. He has shown quicker acceleration and more pace than this in the past, two things that will serve him well in Louisville. Mage looks like quite a good colt himself. Racing after a mere maiden sprint win, Mage had the worst trip in the Fountain of Youth and came into this tough nine-furlong test with but two races behind him. Mage hit the gate at the Fountain of Youth start, but here he made his own trouble, breaking second last, then failing to properly gather himself, winding up last of 12 five strides into the race. New rider Luis Saez thought about splitting Nautical Star and Shaq Diesel going to the turn, but instead pulled outside to race 12th, about three off the rail, around the bend. You can see on the drone shot that Mage went past DUBYUHNELL at the five-furlong pole, but switching back to the pan, he’s off the screen again until the leader is approaching the five-sixteenths. By then, Mage had gathered a real head of steam and was seventh, coming three wide, then four wide at the quarter pole, where he had nearly reached the leaders. Mage briefly matched strides with Cyclone Mischief as he changed leads, edged clear of that rival, but had no answer to Forte’s final surge. Mage ran six furlongs from the mile marker to the quarter pole in 1:11.32, nearly a full second faster than Forte’s 1:12.27. He lost more ground on the far turn than Forte and, given the dynamic, had a right to flatten a bit late, with Forte running the steadier race. This was an excellent performance from a horse who ought to have plenty of upside. We’ll have to see what kind of toll an effort like this might take on a colt with little foundation. :: Take your handicapping to the next level and play with FREE DRF Past Performances - Formulator or Classic.  Cyclone Mischief showed his Holy Bull performance, where he was a distant seventh, to be the outlier in his string of starts, as he got a 91 Beyer here, right in line with his 89 in the Fountain of Youth and his 90 from a Jan. 8 first-level allowance romp. That said, he’s not obviously improving and right now isn’t fast enough to be more than a minor Derby player. The first part of his Florida Derby wasn’t ideal with Cyclone Mischief caught about five wide into the turn after breaking from post 9. The jockey let him move sharply around the second part of the clubhouse turn, going four wide to get into fourth outside MR. RIPPLE. About five lengths off the lead hitting the far turn, Cyclone Mischief was asked for more run and responded, making good progress past the five-sixteenths pole. While Mage got nearly a length on Cyclone Mischief before straightening for the wire, Cyclone Mischief came right back at him. But no sooner had he got back on even terms than Mage started pulling away again, and Cyclone Mischief looked fairly well gassed at the wire. Since his maiden win last fall at Keeneland, the colt has lost ground from the last call to the finish in all his two-turn races. Mr. Ripple, who entered with a career-best 80 Beyer and had been second last out in a moderate first-level allowance, held for fourth, beaten five lengths by Forte. Should that make us question the overall quality of the field? Mr. Ripple was asked for speed out of the gate and got into the second flight while three wide around the first turn. He made his run on the far turn in front of Cyclone Mischief and was caught between fading FORT BRAGG and oncoming Cyclone Mischief and Mage past the quarter pole. Mr. Ripple appeared to be retreating at the three-sixteenths marker but hung around surprisingly well to miss Cyclone Mischief by only two lengths. Fourth to fifth was a point of delineation with fifth-place Fort Bragg more than four lengths behind Mr. Ripple. Fort Bragg broke last, rushed up between horses into the first turn, and somehow managed to secure the lead early on the turn. That was an impressive display of speed, and after setting a strong half-mile split, Fort Bragg, while no threat, hung around pretty gamely. A race like the Pat Day Mile could suit him. Il Miracolo, racing with blinkers added, got into a tight spot going around the first turn and came out of it racing a little rank. He was caught behind horses going into the far turn and by the time he got into the clear, the top finishers were long gone. He did show some spark at the top of the stretch while turning in a career best. :: Get Daily Racing Form Past Performances – the exclusive home of Beyer Speed Figures West Coast Cowboy led early, wound up stalking from an inside position, and at best ran an even race while overmatched. Jungfrau lacked gate speed and resented the kickback into the first turn, pinning his ears and racing keenly. He became even harder to handle stuck in the middle of a five-horse pack coming onto the backstretch, the jockey finally able to drop his hands between the six- and five-furlong markers. But Jungfrau came under a ride to go nowhere past the half-mile pole and finished a distant eighth. Nautical Star got pinched back after the start and raced in tight quarters around the first turn, but he failed to make any progress through the final five furlongs. MR. PEEKS, a two-start maiden making his route debut, had speed to stalk the leader from second but came off the bridle before the three-furlong mark, falling back sharply. Dubyuhnell, the Remsen winner, had been a no-show in the Sam Davis, his 3-year-old debut, and beat one home here. From post 12, he was very, very wide around the first turn, used going onto the backstretch to get into a better position, but off the bridle and out of contention with more than five furlongs still to race, in the end beaten about 36 lengths. Shaq Diesel was all but eased. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.