Grade 1, $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Keeneland, Nov. 4, 2022 (30 qualifying points for first, 12 for second, 9 for third, 6 for fourth, and 3 for fifth)  Winner: Forte, by Violence Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr Owner: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable Beyer: 100  Distance – time: 1 1/16 miles – 1:43.06 Win margin: 1 1/2 lengths The manner in which the BC Juvenile would unfold began to take shape the weekend before the race, when Hurricane J was scratched from the Bowman Mill Stakes to instead start in the Juvenile. He went off at odds of 70-1 in the Juvenile and in the end helped take down 1-2 favorite Cave Rock.  But maybe that’s not entirely fair, framing the race as a defeat for Cave Rock, because in the end, Forte came and took the Juvenile from Cave Rock as much as the favorite lost it.   While Hurricane J did push Cave Rock into a strong early pace, the tempo moderated through the backstretch run, and Cave Rock in winning the American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita showed himself capable of finishing with good energy after leading through a quick tempo. With a Beyer Speed Figure pattern of 101-98-104, Cave Rock to many appeared to be one of the most likely winners of the 2022 Breeders’ Cup, but this proved to be a dethroning, not a coronation.  :: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match and FREE Formulator PPs! Join DRF Bets. Hurricane J broke alertly from the rail and was hustled to make the lead before the first turn as Cave Rock, away just slightly off-rhythm, ran up to press Hurricane J as the pair bent the field into the clubhouse turn. Hurricane J got stoked up by a fast opening quarter-mile in 22.90 seconds, tossing his head at the seven-eighths pole while Cave Rock dropped his head and began clipping efficiently along as he’d done easily winning his first three starts.   Meanwhile, Forte, who broke outward, was somewhat outrun through the first half-furlong, dropping from post 4 over to the rail to save all the ground around the turn, racing from fourth, then fifth as National Treasure edged in front of him at the six-furlong marker. At the five-furlong pole, Irad Ortiz Jr. had taken Forte off the fence, moving his hands a bit to keep Forte in the game as Verifying passed him on the outside and Forte briefly dropped back to sixth. Ortiz got busier into the far turn, Forte shifting back inside and getting a crack of the crop to begin a bid in earnest with five-sixteenths of a mile left to race. Pace-presser Curly Jack faded and left room for Forte to be guided off the fence as he came around a tiring Hurricane J, passing National Treasure with three-sixteenths of a mile remaining as the field came into the homestretch, and taking aim at Cave Rock. Forte cornered a touch wide and a was a couple beats later than ideal changing his leads, but once getting onto the proper leg with a furlong to run, he rather comfortably took the measure of Cave Rock and won going away.   Forte debuted early by New York standards, crushing maiden sprinters on May 27. I thought he’d make short work of the Grade 3 Sanford on July 16; instead, Forte turned in his only flat performance of the season, checking in fourth with no real excuse. He was back to his best winning the Grade 1 Hopeful over seven furlongs, then slugged it out with the talented Loggins to capture the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity in his two-turn debut. The Juvenile clearly marked a peak performance, Forte’s victory over brilliant colt yielding a serious Beyer, and while his pedigree doesn’t shout out 1 1/4 miles, he clearly is capable at least over a middle distance.  Cave Rock was able to get clear of Hurricane J through a second quarter-mile in a moderate 24.11, though it’s possible the pace damage already had been inflicted. In any case, the Arrogate colt simply did not appear to perform to the standard he’d set in the American Pharoah; there, he beat National Treasure by 5 1/2 lengths, the margin between them 2 1/4 lengths in the Juvenile. Cave Rock did fight back when Forte came to him but had his head cocked slightly to the right, and by the time he belatedly changed leads with a half-furlong left, Forte had taken his measure.   National Treasure broke from post 10 and was hard-ridden to gain position into the turn, sliding into the No. 2 path before the seven-furlong marker. Racing with blinkers added, he made a steady forward move while three to four wide down the backstretch, getting into second place chasing Cave Rock around the far turn. Forte had little trouble passing National Treasure at the head of the stretch, with National Treasure staying on at one pace to hold third. No shame in being third best in the Juvenile, but even taking ground loss into account, National Treasure felt a cut below the top two.  Blazing Sevens, making his two-turn debut, turned in a subtly promising fourth-place finish. Forte’s break to the right from post 4 caused Verifying to somewhat hamper Blazing Sevens, whose rider had to take hold of the reins, the colt winding up last after a few strides. Blazing Sevens was taken to the rail and raced from the inside with only Lost Ark and Congruent behind him through the first turn before being guided a couple paths off the fence on the backstretch while going with his head held slightly high, likely resenting the kickback. The jockey asked for more run into the turn, got a modest response, and around the bend chose inside passage, following Forte’s move, then taking a radical right turn into the homestretch to come six to seven paths wide. Blazing Sevens couldn’t close the gap late but finished just about as fast as Forte and galloped out to the winner past the wire.  :: DRF Bets players have exclusive access to FREE DRF Past Performances - Classic or Formulator! Join today.  It was a wide margin, nearly seven lengths, back to fifth-place Curly Jack, who had speed from post 9 to sit a good trip third, stalking the pacesetters while in the clear. National Treasure passed him before the far turn and Curly Jack mildly retreated to the finish.   Verifying had a poor start alongside Blazing Sevens but took a position in front of that foe saving ground into the turn. He came out slightly and bumped Wound Up on the first part of the bend, made wide backstretch progress to get into fifth, a half-length in front of Forte with a half-mile left to race, but went flat around the far turn and never came close to contending thereafter.  Hurricane J backed slightly off Cave Rock down the backstretch, was entirely displaced on the lead into the far turn, held on stubbornly until the three-sixteenths marker, at which point he gave way.   Congruent brushed at the start from post 2, steadied ever so slightly into the turn as Verifying took to the fence, made a modest backstretch move to run into the turn with Blazing Sevens, but lost ground from there and was kindly ridden to an eighth-place finish.  Wound Up had mildly rough passage on the first part of the clubhouse turn before dropping out to the tail of the field and being outrun thereafter.  Lost Ark was asked out of the gate for some speed he failed to muster, racing from the rear while climbing down the backstretch, briefly attempting to get involved a half-mile out. After falling back to last around the turn, Lost Ark, who never looked comfortable, was eased out of contention and did not finish, though he walked off the track.  :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.