NEW YORK – The long series of prep races for the 2019 Kentucky Derby ends Saturday with the Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, and the Grade 3, $200,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. The Arkansas Derby, worth a total of 170 Kentucky Derby points, is supported by the Grade 2, $750,000 Oaklawn Handicap, and the Grade 3, $500,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap. The Lexington, worth a total of 34 Derby points, shares top billing with the Grade 1, $350,000 Jenny Wiley and the Grade 3, $200,000 Ben Ali Stakes. Lexington Stakes Anothertwistafate’s connections did not want to run in this race. But since they do wish to participate in the Derby, they had to. Anothertwistafate has 30 Derby points, which puts him on the wrong side of the Derby points line, a line that determines who makes the starting field of 20. Moreover, Anothertwistafate likely has to win the Lexington, which offers 20 points to the winner, to guarantee a start in the Derby. The eight points that goes to the Lexington runner up might not be enough. Anothertwistafate is certainly capable of winning the Lexington. After romping in three straight starts on Golden Gate’s synthetic main track, including the El Camino Real Derby, Anothertwistafate proved most recently in a narrowly beaten second in the Sunland Park Derby that he can handle dirt and does not require the early lead to be effective. However, I’m reluctant to endorse horses who squeeze in starts in races for which they were not originally intended, even when there is a powerful incentive to win. I just prefer to look elsewhere. :: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Sueno was my Weekend Warrior main play when he competed in the Louisiana Derby last time out, and though he finished a tired third in that one, I’m going back to him. I believe Sueno is best when he stalks from just off the pace, and I feel he was too close early in the Louisiana Derby when he pressed the pace. Sueno worked out the kind of stalking trip I hope he gets Saturday two starts back when he finished a gaining and narrowly beaten second in the Southwest Stakes. He finished ahead of Long Range Toddy, who came back to upset the highly regarded Improbable in the first division of the Rebel Stakes. I also like the cut-back in distance for Sueno Saturday, from the 1 1/8 miles of the Louisiana Derby to the 1 1/16 miles at which he ran well in the Southwest. If Sueno does win, he’ll have a total of 48 Derby points, and that would be enough to safely get him into the Derby – which at 1 1/4 miles is a furlong longer than the Louisiana Derby. As for the Arkansas Derby, which may well be run on a sloppy track, I can’t get past favored Improbable even if he was upset in the first division of the Rebel in his 3-year-old bow. The addition of blinkers will help Improbable’s focus and the rail draw should force him to go early, and I think that’s just what he needs. :: Shop for PPs, picks, DRF+ and more in our store! Oaklawn Handicap Aside from weather considerations and wet-track ability, a separating factor for me in this race is capability at the 1 1/8-mile distance. Several in this field are unaccomplished at this trip, and that includes Lookin At Lee, despite his second in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. Tenfold and Lone Sailor seem the most reliable at the nine furlongs, and since Lone Sailor is a bit camera shy, I’ll take Tenfold. Tenfold failed as the favorite in his return last month from a six-month layoff, but I do like the addition of blinkers and the solid workouts since, and his close third in last year’s Preakness over a sloppy track would be good enough in this spot. Ben Ali Stakes Flameaway was game winning the Challenger Stakes last time in his second start off a six-month layoff. But Flameaway was also hard pressed to prevail over Killybegs Captain who, though razor sharp, was a stretch-out sprinter and a major question mark that day going two turns. I’m going with Nun the Less. Nun the Less is in career-best form, having won stakes in two of his last three starts over the synthetic main track at Turfway. But he is not a mere synthetic-track specialist. Nun the Less turned in a series of solid races on the dirt last fall at three different tracks, so he can produce on almost any footing.