Preakness picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers across the United States. 2023 Preakness Stakes (Race 13) Distance: 1 3/16 miles Track: Pimlico Race Course Post time: 7:01 p.m. Eastern TV: NBC Preakness field and odds Post   Horse   ML Odds 1. National Treasure 7-2 2. Chase the Chaos 50-1 3. Mage 4-5 4. Coffeewithchris 20-1 5. Red Route One 8-1 6. Perform 10-1 7. Blazing Sevens 4-1 8. First Mission SCRATCHED DRF odds :: Get free DRF Formulator past performances for the 2023 Preakness Mike Beer 1. Mage 2. National Treasure 3. Perform 4. Blazing Sevens MAGE flashed potential in his winning debut and then was immediately thrown into the deep end. The growing pains were evident with slow starts compromising him in Florida, though he still ran well in those races. He put it all together in the Derby, even with dynamics in his favor, and he still can move forward with only four starts behind him. It also plays to his advantage that everyone else from the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago elected to skip this race. He was going to be hard to beat in this Preakness even before the scratch of First Mission; it is even more difficult to stand against him now. NATIONAL TREASURE didn't make the Kentucky Derby but prepped in a fast running of the Santa Anita Derby and ran a deceptively good race there. Hasn't won a race since the sprint debut but is back with Baffert and has a running style that suggests that longer might be better. His best chance might be to try to use his speed from the inside draw.  PERFORM has won both starts since stretched out in distance and came through traffic with a strong finish to become a stakes winner last time. While it took him a while to win for the first time, he landed in some maiden races that were well above average and was competitive. He also showed speed as a younger horse going shorter, which suggests that he can adapt if this pace slows down. Steps up at the right time.  BLAZING SEVENS wasted no time putting his natural ability on display as a debut winner at Saratoga. He was a Grade 1 winner as a juvenile with a solid figure, and he acquitted himself well in his first attempt around two turns when fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Things did not get off to a good start this year with a dismal performance at Gulfstream, though he managed to rebound when a solid third in the Grade 1 Blue Grass. Skipped the Derby to await this race, which did not come up nearly as strong as it could have, but he needs to improve again.  Brad Free 1. Mage 2. Blazing Sevens 3. Perform 4. National Treasure Even before the scratch of his main rival, MAGE appeared to be a complete and total standout in the Preakness, based on his Florida Derby runner-up finish two starts back and his pace-assisted Kentucky Derby victory two weeks ago against a better field than he meets in this watered-down Preakness. Beyond his own qualifications, Mage’s chance to win the Preakness increased with the scratch of his main rival, First Mission. The Derby upset by Mage was no fluke; he also ran well two back when compromised by a premature move in the Florida Derby. The challenge for Mage in the Preakness is to reproduce his Florida and Kentucky performances rallying from behind a likely slower pace. The scratch of First Mission further tempers the pace scenario. Mage also faces a historical challenge. The last 15 Derby winners who ran in the Preakness produced only 5 wins, 10 losses. But this year’s field is modest. Slow-pace scenario notwithstanding, Mage stands out at a short price in a seven-runner field. BLAZING SEVENS skipped the Derby, similar to his trainer’s previous Preakness winners Cloud Computing and Early Voting. Blazing Sevens reportedly has worked very well for his third start back from a layoff; this race should be his best. A main challenge facing Blazing Sevens is two turns. Until now, he seems best at one turn. He reportedly has trained very well, and should deliver the top effort of his career in Preakness. With the scratch of First Mission, Blazing Sevens moves up to second preference. The longshot PERFORM, a $150k supplement, could outrun his likely high odds based on improvement since stretching to two turns. Maiden winner two back; he scored a better-than-looked victory last out in an ungraded stakes. He was a buried near the back turning for home, blocked in traffic, squeezed through, exploded late, and was up by a head. The win was better than the low 85 Beyer. The improving colt merits a longshot look, notwithstanding his fig. NATIONAL TREASURE drew the rail, adds blinkers, and is likely to use his speed; National Treasure is back with his original trainer after a disappointing fourth in his comeback in the Santa Anita Derby. The scratch of First Mission leaves National Treasure and longshot COFFEEWITHCHRIS as the only two front-runners in the small Preakness field. National Treasure was positioned to become one of the country’s top 3-year-olds this season after a successful 2-year-old campaign when he finished second in a pair of Grade 1s. But his anticipated improvement has stalled. He is running the same figures now he was running six months ago. RED ROUTE ONE will rally late; CHASE THE CHAOS seem to be in tough. :: Get ready to bet the Preakness! Join DRF Bets and score a $250 Deposit Match + $10 Free Bet + Free PPs - Promo code: WINNING Marcus Hersh 1. Perform 2. Mage 3. National Treasure 4. Blazing Sevens  CHASE THE CHAOS and COFFEEWITHCHRIS won’t hit the board, though Coffeewithchris can impact the race showing speed, and I think he’s sent for the lead – the pace might turn quicker than people expect. MAGE got a great trip in the Derby as the pace melted down and he raced unobstructed to the wire. Part of the reason he got that trip was the fact he traveled so well. I liked Mage coming into the Derby but worried about his slow starts and lack of experience, neither of which mattered. He’s the most likely winner of the Preakness. That said, Mage is supposed to regress at less than one-tenth his Derby price; I missed him last time at 15-1 and won’t be boarding the train at something like 3-5 after the scratch of FIRST MISSION.  First Mission’s scratch on Friday removes a major player as well as at least a moderate pace element. It hurts the price not just for Mage supporters but for those supporting alternative choices.   BLAZING SEVENS got nothing out of his 2023 debut and had a right to tire in the Blue Grass. I still didn’t like the way he looked. I grant that Blazing Sevens has the potential to hit a career peak and contend; I wonder if he has progressed much from his early 2-year-old form and doubt he really wants to run this far.  NATIONAL TREASURE could offer some value. He has worked sharper in blinkers his last three breezes, has had some tough trips, but I’m unsure there’s real improvement coming, mainly because of mental limitations. The blinkers move has been made before. National Treasure runs in spots and doesn’t seem focused but is another entirely plausible winner.  PERFORM is too slow on the Beyers. I think he’s faster than the numbers, likely to run his best race, and I’m keying him. Perform was late to blossom but has made rapid strides at age 3, starting with his fourth behind Mage in his 2023 debut. He absolutely pulled himself up after an eye-catching far turn move at Tampa; the runner-up there came back with an 88 Beyer in a Churchill maiden romp. The Tesio is a negative key race for the Preakness and Perform beat little in it, but he had no right to win that race from an impossible position 2 1/2 furlongs out. He stumbled at the start last time, doesn’t have to be so far back, and has come out of the Tesio with the fastest works of his life. He looks like all the value.  :: DRF's Preakness Headquarters: Contenders, latest news, and more Dan Illman 1. National Treasure 2. Mage 3. Blazing Sevens 4. Red Route One NATIONAL TREASURE gave a good try in the Breeders' Cup when behind the two best juveniles in the country, then had to play catch up this year. Didn't have the cleanest trip when beaten a length at odds-on in the Sham, then missed the San Felipe due to a foot issue. Thus, he ran in the Santa Anita Derby following a three-month layoff and was hardly disgraced. Four wide on the backstretch in a race where the top two finishers saved ground most of the way, he was steadied in between at the quarter pole, then finished evenly with a solid gallop-out. He's run well with blinkers in the past and should get forwardly placed from the rail. MAGE is the horse to beat following his explosive Kentucky Derby win. Despite breaking slowly, as is his habit, he traveled very comfortably in between on the backstretch, made a sharp outside bid, then gamely wore down the runner-up. It was a huge effort considering his inexperience, and a repeat of that performance likely puts him in the winner's circle once again.  BLAZING SEVENS was lackluster in the Fountain of Youth but improved when third in the Blue Grass. Chad Brown has had success skipping the Derby to point for the Preakness, and this one might be set for his best in the third of the form cycle. RED ROUTE ONE doesn't have speed, but he does boast a strong kick, and can factor if the pace is very hot up front. Mike Welsch 1. Mage  2. Blazing Sevens  3. National Treasure 4. Perform The late defection of First Mission should make the road to the winner’s circle all the more easier for Derby hero MAGE in the middle leg of the Triple Crown. Although it’s hard to believe Mage can duplicate his huge Derby performance returning on just two weeks rest, and while also taking into consideration the fact he is pace-dependent in a field not possessing that much early zip, the lightly raced youngster may just hold enough of a class and speed-figure edge to carry the day once again, even with a regression of some sort off his previous try. Not advocating this guy from a pari-mutuel standpoint as the likely 4-5 favorite, but surely not hard to root for these connections as well as a potential Triple Crown candidate moving forward and seemingly the most likely winner in this spot.   BLAZING SEVENS made a big step forward off dull 3-year-old debut at second asking and with the addition of blinkers in the Blue Grass, although obviously a bit disappointed by the efforts of the first two finishers that day in the Derby. Has the looks of a horse sitting on his best yet and hard not to respect trainer Chad Brown’s success rate in this event. NATIONAL TREASURE did not have the cleanest of trips in the Santa Anita Derby and likely needed the race after missing scheduled prep in the San Felipe. Addition of blinkers adds to the allure, seems to be working forwardly since his last and likely to perhaps benefit the most from the withdrawal of First Mission from a pace standpoint.   PERFORM is a steadily improving sort and connections show a lot of confidence putting up big money to supplement him into the race, but he’s going to have to move forward quite a bit from a Beyer Speed Figure standpoint to vie for anything other than one of the minor awards.      :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.