Preakness Stakes picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers across the United States. Mike Beer 1. Epicenter 2. Creative Minister 3. Skippylongstocking 4. Secret Oath EPICENTER was run down by an impossible horse two weeks ago in the Derby, yet he ran the best race that day by nearly any measure and emerged an unlucky loser while earning a second consecutive triple-digit Beyer. Each of his last three efforts is faster than any of his rivals have managed to run from 47 combined starts, and he has proven to be tactical enough to deal with any pace scenario since his easy front-running score in the Risen Star. At his expected short price, one has to take into consideration that he is exiting an enervating effort two weeks ago, but he stands out in this Preakness on form and is going to be hard on his rivals with a representative effort. CREATIVE MINISTER has only three starts behind him and is making his stakes debut in the Preakness with plenty to prove. He also benefits from the absence of several of the divisional leaders in this Preakness, which contains only Epicenter and Simplification among the first 13 finishers in the Derby. Creative Minister has improved with each start and has proven to be quite handy in his two starts since a green debut sprinting, which could lead to a nice trip in this race. SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING has adopted a new running style in his two most recent starts while also stretching out in distance, leading to consecutive Beyer tops and a Grade 2 placing. He was not a real threat while finishing a clear third in the Wood Memorial, but he was always on the outside in that race, while top two finishers, Mo Donegal and Early Voting, rode the rail. He can sit back and make one run here at a price. SECRET OATH wheels back on short rest and steps back in with colts after asserting her superiority over her fellow 3-year-old fillies in the Kentucky Oaks. She did not have the best of trips while facing the boys for the first time in the Arkansas Derby, though that was not a particularly strong field. This is going to be tougher for her and she might not offer much value. :: Bet The Preakness with confidence! Join DRF Bets and get a $250 deposit match bonus, $10 free bet, and access to FREE DRF Formulator! Brad Free 1. Epicenter 2. Skippylongstocking 3. Creative Minister 4. Secret Oath EPICENTER will take some beating in the Preakness. Runner-up in the Kentucky Derby after a forwardly placed trip chasing a blazing pace, Epicenter now gets an apparently easier pace scenario. He is the fastest colt on figures, and his versatile style is adaptable to any pace scenario. He can make the lead, or press from the outside (post 8 of 9). One might conclude Epicenter is a stone-cold cinch. But, of course, there is no such thing. Epicenter could encounter bad luck. Perhaps wheeling back two weeks after an all-out Derby effort is too much. Maybe one or the other Preakness front-runner (Early Voting, Armagnac) will shake loose and prove uncatchable. Anything could happen. Yet barring the unforeseen, Epicenter should win at low odds. This is not a secret. The longshot SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING can outrun his 20-1 morning line if everything breaks right. His figures are inching upward; he produced a career top last out finishing third in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. With six weeks since that start and apparently sharp works in the interim, Skippylongstocking might be able to deliver another new top that would be fast enough to hit the board. It’s a reach. His high odds justify the risk. CREATIVE MINISTER, supplemented for $150,000 to this race and the Belmont, moves up in class following a decisive allowance victory. The lightly raced (three starts) colt hopped and was away slowly, saved ground while taking dirt, angled outside for the drive, and pulled away. The sharp win was more impressive visually than the Beyer Speed Figure, a 92. Two for two around two turns, Creative Minister will be rolling late and could easily hit the board. SECRET OATH, a filly facing the boys, wheels back 15 days after winning the Kentucky Oaks over trip-compromised favorite Nest. But take nothing away from Secret Oath – she ran well despite ground loss. She finished third in her only previous start against boys in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Her closing style is opposite the favorite. The filly will rally late. Front-runner EARLY VOTING could steal it depending on pressure from Armagnac two stalls to his outside. The knocks on Early Voting are relatively low odds (listed 7-2) and a potentially problematic 1 3/16-mile distance. He won at nine furlongs early this year, but squandered a two-length lead in the stretch racing nine furlongs last out. SIMPLIFICATION finished a creditable fourth in the Kentucky Derby, and four of the last 12 Preakness winners finished off the board in the Derby (War of Will, Oxbow, Shackleford, Lookin At Lucky). FENWICK and HAPPY JACK appear to be in too tough. Marcus Hersh 1. Epicenter 2. Secret Oath 3. Early Voting 4. Simplification The crazy thing is six of the nine Preakness entrants are wheeling back on two weeks’ rest, give or take a day, yet only three come out of the Kentucky Derby. Secret Oath exits the Kentucky Oaks, and then there are Creative Minister and Armagnac, who contested allowance races two weekends ago. Only one of those six, the Derby favorite and the Preakness favorite EPICENTER posted a workout between races. Nothing fast, nothing flashy, just a half-mile in 50.40 on May 16. You know why that is? Because this colt is big, strong, tough, and hardy, and he can take it. He has a great foundation under him and through every piece of training and racing has continued to develop and improve through the winter and spring. Don’t expect Epicenter to bounce off his Derby. Here’s a pre-Derby quote from trainer Steve Asmussen: “The great level of confidence I have in Epicenter is because it does not appear I can do too much with him, whereas several of the other runners I’ve had in the Derby, it was very apparent that you could.” Here are the Derby/Preakness finishes of horses Asmussen ran back on two weeks’ rest, 15 days with Rachel Alexandra, who won the Oaks: Curlin (3rd-1st), Daddy Nose Best (10th-9th), Lookin At Lee (2nd-4th), Hence (11th-9th), Midnight Bourbon (6th-2nd), Rachel Alexandra (1st-1st). You can’t say any of those horses regressed much, if at all, and I’d trust this trainer perhaps more than any other to have a feel for when to push forward and when to pull back. Epicenter was much the best in the Derby. Joel Rosario really had little choice but to follow Messier’s premature move at the half-mile pole, but that early run into such a strong pace is exactly what left Epicenter vulnerable to Rich Strike’s improbable rally. I think Epicenter trips out sweetly at Pimlico and becomes a very, very deserving classic winner. SECRET OATH gets five pounds from the males and it’s because of that – and how good she is – that she’s taken to run down Early Voting for second. Even with five pounds, Secret Oath won’t beat Epicenter in a fair fight. She was, however, trained lightly into the Oaks and stands a decent chance of running to form. EARLY VOTING is a good horse, but though he nearly saw out nine furlongs in the Wood, I don’t really believe the added half-furlong here is his friend. Moreover, Epicenter has the speed and the right post to shadow Early Voting’s every move, and unless Epicenter takes a step back, he’s the superior horse. SIMPLIFICATION got a much better Derby trip than Epicenter and didn’t come close to running him down. He’s taken fourth because the guess is John Velazquez uses the colt’s tactical speed to slip into the pocket and get a favorable trip, provided Simplification can find a way out. CREATIVE MINISTER also is a candidate for that pocket spot, but while I appreciate this colt’s talent, he’s gotten dream trips in the two wins that landed him a start in this race and, so far, looks not nearly fast enough. A top-three finish from any of the others would be a huge surprise to me – but then Rich Strike did win the Kentucky Derby, didn’t he? :: Get Preakness Betting Strategies by for exclusive wagering insight, contender analysis, and more Dan Illman 1. Epicenter 2. Armagnac 3. Creative Minister 4. Simplification Joel Rosario and EPICENTER did everything right but win in the Kentucky Derby. They shrugged off a bump at the start, settled into a nice spot along the inside on the backstretch, and hit all the requisite holes to obtain the lead turning for home. Epicenter gamely parried Zandon’s thrust at the furlong marker, but perhaps felt the effects of racing closest to that blazing pace when he succumbed to the rail-skimming upset winner in the final yards. The pace probably won’t be as quick in the Preakness and his tactical speed should have him in a good tracking position. ARMAGNAC hasn’t done much in two stakes appearances but received a confidence boost when wiring first-level allowance runners at Santa Anita. That wasn’t the strongest race in the world, however, and they did run 1-2-3 all the way around the track. He does have the speed to get close to the pace here and retains some upside potential.  CREATIVE MINISTER is a neck away from being undefeated, and he ran down the pacesetter to take a first-level race on the Derby undercard. This is a well-bred colt that has improved on the Beyer scale in each start. If this pace heats up, he might be the one to directly benefit.  SIMPLIFICATION continued his string of positive performances with a good fourth in the Derby. The trip and race flow worked in his favor, and he had a big look at it when they straightened away for home. He is versatile in terms of running style and can be a lot closer to the pace if necessary. EARLY VOTING comes into the Preakness a fresh horse for a great trainer, and there’s a chance he’ll shake loose heading into the clubhouse turn. He proved he could go fast early and still win when he won the Withers two starts back. This looks like a nice spot for SECRET OATH, who took advantage of quick fractions when impressively capturing the Kentucky Oaks. Ran well against males two starts back and has an impressive burst of speed when called upon. :: Get ready for the Preakness with DRF past performances, picks, and betting strategies! Mike Welsch 1. Early Voting 2. Epicenter 3. Simplification 4. Creative Minister Logically, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of viable options in this year’s Preakness field, but then again logic had little to do with the final outcome of this year’s Kentucky Derby, so there is that to consider. On paper, and off his Derby performance, Epicenter is obviously the most logical winner of this race, but at a price somewhere in the vicinity of even money, logic would dictate searching for a little better value. The best alternative, it would seem, is the fresh, talented, and steadily improving EARLY VOTING. Although logically, staying 1 3/16 miles is a big question for the lightly raced colt, one will rely on trainer Chad Brown, an expert in such matters, to have him properly legged up for the task given the six weeks he’s had to freshen and prepare for this objective since his game effort in the Wood Memorial. The key will be an alert start, a quality he’s seemed to possess in earlier races, and the ability to relax long enough on the lead to have enough in reserve to seal the deal in the end. EPICENTER is likely one of only two other members of the field, along with Armagnac, capable of forcing the issue from the outset, and it will be interesting to see if jockey Joel Rosario opts to put the favorite in close pursuit of Early Voting right from the start. The Derby runner-up has been a model of consistency throughout his career and surely a deserving favorite, although he must answer one question – whether he can come back with yet another peak performance on just two weeks’ rest. SIMPLIFICATION was my choice at a huge price to upset the Derby. At the top of the stretch, he appeared to be in perfect position to do just that when seemingly poised to make a legitimate run at the leaders from off what had been a torrid pace. Unfortunately, the Fountain of Youth winner could not gain any ground through the final quarter-mile, perhaps a factor of the ground loss incurred getting into that position or the relatively grueling schedule he’d kept to that point. The Derby marked his fifth start in little over a four-month span to start the year. Wheeling back in only two weeks obviously raises concern of how much is still left in the tank, but he is deserving of one more chance if able to produce his best effort in this spot. CREATIVE MINISTER worked as well as any 3-year-old on the grounds at Gulfstream Park during the Championship meeting even before getting to the races, and there were plenty of good ones training there this winter, including four Kentucky Derby starters. He would have won his debut with a cleaner trip and continues to flourish, coming off another improved showing on the Derby undercard. It’s asking a lot of him to step up to this level, especially off two weeks’ rest like so many others in this lineup, but he has enough obvious talent not to rule out entirely if able to muster yet another forward move.