SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. – So, you want to bet the New York Stakes on Friday at Saratoga. Thirteen older fillies and mares were entered in this 1 3/16-mile turf race. Step 1: Eliminating non-contenders. Good luck with that. The New York might be the deepest race this week at Saratoga. Be Your Best can’t win, but some kind of case can be made for the other dozen. To further complexify analysis, the race could be run over a soft or yielding course. Start with the longest morning-line prices. Royalty Interest is the least appealing of the 20-1 shots. Yes, she’s a progressive 4-year-old, but Royalty Interest led at a snail’s pace winning her stakes debut, the Grade 3 Sheepshead Bay, by a head. The New York came up much tougher and so will her trip. Star Fortress (20-1) almost caught Royalty Interest after blazing her final furlong in 10.72 seconds. The Irish-bred English import’s dazzling American debut last fall came over a funky Churchill course and might not be repeatable. The Sheepshead Bay, at 1 3/8 miles, was step in the right direction. “The distance was more to her liking,” trainer Cherie DeVaux said. “If there’s any give in the ground, she should definitely appreciate that.” :: DRF Belmont Stakes Packages: Save up to 52% on PPs, Clocker Reports, Betting Strategies, and more Irish import Aspen Grove (20-1) won the Belmont Oaks Invitational over 1 1/4 miles in her American debut last summer, but things didn’t go her way in two subsequent starts last year – nor in her two this year. A crawling pace undid her at Tampa and last month at Churchill, Aspen Grove was squeezed badly at the start, rallying from 11th to third in the 1 1/8-mile Modesty with a field-best 34.99 final three furlongs. “She’s a bigger, stronger filly as a 4-year-old. We think she should be undefeated this year,” trainer Jack Sisterson said. “You can run this filly over any trip. She seems like she’d run on any type ground. The question is just whether she’s good enough.” Among the 15-1 shots, Surprisingly, at age 5, already has shown her best, and racing over yielding turf in the Modesty she was a below-form seventh. Post 13 on Friday is no bargain, and others are more appealing. Neecie Marie was just a Grade 3 type last year at age 3, but in her 4-year-old debut last month took a serious step forward defeating Whitebeam, winner last summer of the Grade 1 Diana. Neecie Marie stays and can get over a wet course. Sparkle Blue, a grinder, fell too far behind the Modesty pace, closing for second, and won’t mind give in the ground and an extra half-furlong. She, like Surprisingly, lacks upside. McKulick (10-1) is better than you think. A no-show in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and a last-out fourth in the Sheepshead Bay are the only races where she failed to show up. She beat champion War Like Goddess over the Saratoga course and has a win on yielding ground, but more distance would be better. American Sonja (10-1), yet another 4-year-old with upside, makes her second Saratoga trip from Ireland and ran well last summer in the Saratoga Oaks. She did get a perfect trip winning the April 28 Prix Allez France, but her first start of 2024 was a career best and came on soft ground, and the runner-up returned to capture a Group 2. Fev Rover at 8-1? Gotta have some. Fev Rover, away since November, is a soft-ground fiend and aced her long-layoff comeback in 2023. She can lead or press, stays the trip, and may have been the best horse in the Diana last summer. “All systems are go. She’s 6, but she’s as good as ever,” trainer Mark Casse said. “If it rains, that’s not going to hurt our feelings.” Didia is 9-2, and trainer Ignacio Correas would be overflowing with confidence but for one factor. “The track being a little softer, I don’t know . . .” Didia has run 1 1/16 miles her last two starts, most recently chasing the pace in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley. The New York is the race Correas has targeted, and Didia’s Argentine form says why: This is a mile-and-a-quarter mare, and one in peak form. “That’s the best work she ever had,” Correas said of Didia’s six-furlong breeze May 22. Twice an Eclipse Award finalist, three times a Grade 1 winner, War Like Goddess is 4-1 for her belated 7-year-old debut. The mare kicked herself and opened a laceration days before an intended April start in the Bewitch Stakes, a 1 1/2-mile race for a 1 1/2-mile specialist. :: Bet the Belmont Stakes with confidence! Join DRF Bets and get a $200 deposit match bonus and FREE DRF Past Performances! “It’s too short for her,” conceded trainer Bill Mott about the 1 3/16-mile distance of the New York, “but she needs to get started. There’s a lot of speed, and if the pace works out, maybe we’re okay.” English Rose feels odd as the 3-1 favorite, though the chalk she may well be. Five starts, no Grade 1 wins, one race beyond 1 1/16 miles, no tries on soft or yielding. But English Rose is a Godolphin homebred trained by England-based Charlie Appleby, who runs a sizeable American string this year. How about this one: Appleby, since 2021, is 30 for 75 in North American graded turf stakes, a 40 percent strike rate. English Rose chased home soft-pace winner Beaute Cachee finishing second making her North American debut in the Jenny Wiley. One gets the idea she’ll be better over a longer distance, that the Jenny Wiley was a stepping-stone to Friday’s contest. English Rose is a contender. There are too many of them in the New York. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.