LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Todd Pletcher doesn’t mind a Kentucky rain. Good for him, because when Pletcher sends out Nest as the morning-line favorite for the 148th Kentucky Oaks on Friday, history will be on his side – and it wouldn’t hurt to have the best horse in the race, either. “If the track’s wet, I think Nest will handle it really well,” said Pletcher. A sloppy track looms a distinct possibility Friday at Churchill Downs, where the first 100,000-plus crowd in three years will jam into this historic facility for the Grade 1, $1.25 million Oaks. Forecasters are calling for periodic rain through the course of the day. Wet or dry or somewhere in between, it sure seems like Nest, as a powerful last-out winner of the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland, figures as the filly to beat in a full field of 14 3-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles. :: For the first time ever, our premium past performances are free! Get free Formulator now! Pletcher’s two Kentucky Derby winners, Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017), both came splashing home in the Churchill mud, just as two of his four Oaks winners, Ashado (2004) and Rags to Riches (2007), did the same. “For whatever reason, we’ve had pretty good success over off tracks here,” he said. Nest, a hard-closing bay, is owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Repole Stable, and Michael House. The daughter of Curlin has won four of five starts, the latest an eye-catching 8 1/4-length romp in the Ashland on April 8. “It was a huge effort,” said Pletcher, a first-ballot inductee into the Racing Hall of Fame last August. “She’s a filly who’s progressively gotten better and better. She’s bred that way. She’s already won at a mile and an eighth. I thought her Ashland performance was superb, and she’s trained well since she’s been here. Everything seems to be pointing in the right direction. It seems like a stellar field in the Oaks, but she’s certainly one of the ones that makes it a good race.” Nest, with Irad Ortiz Jr. riding from post 4, is one of four fillies being given the best chance to wear the lilies shortly after the Oaks is run at 5:51 p.m. Eastern. The others are Echo Zulu and Kathleen O., both undefeated, and Secret Oath, whose iconic trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, would delight his many fans by winning 40 years after he notched his first Oaks victory in 1982 with Blush With Pride. Echo Zulu (post 7, Joel Rosario), owned by Winchell Thoroughbreds and L and N Racing, is the reigning champion in this division, having swept all four starts last year, ending with a 5 1/4-length rout in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies in November. Her only start at 3, however, was less dominant, as she barely held on for a nose victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks, a race that has been a remarkable producer of Kentucky Oaks winners the last quarter-century. “I love how she’s been training,” said her trainer, Steve Asmussen, a two-time Oaks winner with Summerly (2005) and Untapable (2014). “She’d never been here before we brought her up from New Orleans. She’s really taken to this racetrack.” Kathleen O. (post 10, Javier Castellano) has closed stoutly in capturing all four starts since her career began in mid-November, including three straight stakes at Gulfstream Park over the winter. Shug McGaughey, whose lone Oaks win came with Dispute in 1993, trains the Upstart filly for the Winngate Stables of 84-year-old Patrick Kearney, brand-new to the racing game. :: Want to start playing with a $510 bankroll and have access to free Formulator? Learn more Lukas, 86, briefly flirted with the idea of having Secret Oath (post 1, Luis Saez) become the first filly to run in the Derby in 12 years. She finished third in the April 2 Arkansas Derby in her last start. The daughter of the late Arrogate won her three prior starts, all versus fillies at Oaklawn Park, by a combined 23 lengths. “We think she’s a special filly,” said Lukas. Pletcher also has two of the outsiders in the field in Goddess of Fire (post 5, John Velazquez) and Shahama (post 13, Flavien Prat). Shahama also is unbeaten, although the quality of what she faced is in question. She has made four starts, all in Dubai for trainer Fawzi Nass. The Munnings filly was sent to Pletcher not long after earning her way to the Oaks with a two-length score Feb. 18 in the UAE Oaks. “You don’t know what she was beating in Dubai, but we’ve trained her in company with some other nice fillies and she’s held her own,” said Pletcher. As for Goddess of Fire, a one-time winner who was second to Kathleen O. in the Gulfstream Oaks, Pletcher seems less confident, particularly if the track is off. “I’d say if maybe one of my fillies wouldn’t love a wet track it’d be Goddess of Fire, but that’s only because she doesn’t have much experience on it,” he said. Pletcher is a former assistant to Lukas. With four wins apiece, both have a chance to equal the legendary Woody Stephens for most victories in Oaks history by a trainer. Pletcher also won the Oaks in 2013 with Princess of Sylmar, a 38-1 shot, and last year with Malathaat, in addition to Ashado and Rags to Riches. Lukas’s most recent Oaks winner was Seaside Attraction in 1990. There are a handful of sleepers in a deep Oaks cast, including Hidden Connection, Nostalgic, Venti Valentine, Yuugiri, and Turnerloose. Hidden Connection, second to Echo Zulu in the Fair Grounds Oaks, was a 9 1/4-length winner of the Pocahontas here last September and has been particularly energetic in her recent training. “She’s been pretty sharp lately,” said trainer Bret Calhoun. “She’s back where she needs to be. This is a very good field, but I like where we are with her.” Nostalgic, trained by Bill Mott, upset Venti Valentine in the Gazelle at Aqueduct, while Yuugiri earned her way in by taking the Fantasy at Oaklawn. Yuugiri is trained by Rudy Brisset, a former longtime Mott assistant. Turnerloose was assigned post 14, “but that’s okay,” said her trainer, Brad Cox, whose 2018 Oaks winner, Monomoy Girl, started from post 14. “If she’s good enough, the post shouldn’t be a problem,” Cox said. The lone also-eligible is Beguine, who will make the race only if another filly is declared by 9 a.m. Friday, scratch time for both the Oaks and Kentucky Derby. Beguine would break from the outside post if she draws in. The pace scenario in the Oaks seems fairly straightforward, with the speedy Echo Zulu sure to be among the first flight while chased by Yuugiri and a couple of others. Secret Oath will be looking to save ground from a stalking spot, while Nest and Kathleen O. will try to make their moves from farther back. The Oaks is the 11th of 13 races on a sensational Derby Eve card that gets an early 10:30 a.m. start. It’s the last of seven straight graded stakes and a key link in a lengthy list of multi-race wagers, including as the opening leg of the ever-popular two-day Oaks-Derby double. Last year, the Oaks-Derby double drew nearly $2.8 million in handle. Aside from the rain, conditions should be comfortable for ontrack fans, with a high of 73 predicted. This will be the first day for unrestricted attendance at Churchill since 2019 due to the lingering coronavirus pandemic. USA Network has Oaks Day coverage from 1 to 6, with FS2, TVG2, and the local NBC affiliate (WAVE-3) showing races before and after that five-hour slot.