Remember when favorites won a typical 33 percent of Southern California dirt races and a 43 percent win rate by Los Alamitos favorites during all-dirt September meets seemed extreme? Those were good times. But dirt races unexpectedly have become far more predictable in California, not just at Los Alamitos. It happened this season at Del Mar and Santa Anita, where favorites won 43 percent on dirt – Del Mar summer (66 of 152) and Santa Anita winter-spring combined (145 of 334). The uptrend for dirt chalk is relevant when Los Alamitos begins its all-dirt meet Friday, though it is uncertain if the track can absorb an increase in winning chalk. Los Alamitos favorites already won an above-average rate the past three September meets – 42 percent, 44 percent, and 43 percent. :: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets. One reason for favorites winning at such a high win rate is fewer starters per race. Los Alamitos average field size during the 2023 September meet dropped to 6.14. Randy Valdez, recently promoted to Los Alamitos daytime racing secretary, acknowledged the challenge in filling races during a two-week Friday-through-Sunday race meet that is squeezed between boutique summer-fall meets at Del Mar and Santa Anita. Filling races “is a challenge across California, period,” Valdez said. “It’s a challenge at all tracks, Los Alamitos specifically.” Valdez, who landed the racing secretary position after the September condition book was already written, admits his September field-size target is high. “Eight would probably be my goal,” he said. “We’re going to do our best to put our product together for the racetrack and for bettors.” A pair of mile stakes highlight the fall at Los Alamitos. The $75,000 E.B. Johnston Stakes for California-breds is Saturday; the $125,000 Dark Mirage Stakes for fillies and mares is Sept. 21. The main appeal of the September meet is betting. Despite a downtrend in field size and uptrend in winning favorites, the early pick five (races 1-5) remains one of the most popular wagers at Los Alamitos. A 50-cent bet with a 14 percent takeout, the pick five median payout the past three September meets is $600. Pick five pools last September averaged more than $168,000. The pick six at Los Alamitos is a $2 wager on the final six races, with 70 percent of the net pool to perfect tickets or carryover, and 30 percent to consolations. Carryovers occur, on average, every three to four days during the September meet. Friday’s opening-day card is soft, with 51 entrants in eight races including five maiden-claiming races. The featured seventh race is an entry-level $40,000 allowance/optional-claiming mile in which Bob Baffert-trained Cornell holds the edge. Runner-up in the $100,000 Los Alamitos Derby two back, Cornell finished third last out after racing wide on an inside-speed-favoring track at Del Mar. Baffert’s five-year win rate with Los Alamitos favorites is 54 percent (44 for 82). Kyle Frey rides Cornell. Cornell’s rivals include Red Cross Knight, a horse for course with three wins at Los Alamitos. Red Cross Knight is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, whose most recent win was Dec. 9 at Los Alamitos with Red Cross Knight. Manitowish has speed to make the lead. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.