Nash came into Gun Runner Stakes on Dec. 23 at Fair Grounds following one of the best 2-year-old maiden wins last year, a 10 1/4-length romp at Churchill Downs six weeks earlier that yielded an elite 97 Beyer Speed Figure. Track Phantom also had won a two-turn November maiden at Churchill, a strong performance good for an 84 Beyer, but not up to Nash’s level. Or so it seemed. Nash was 1-2 in the Gun Runner, Track Phantom nearly 5-1, but 1:44.42 seconds after the gate popped, it was Track Phantom who had come out on top. He won well, too, dueling through a demanding 46.93 second half-mile split before turning Nash back in the homestretch as Nash wilted late, finishing third, three lengths behind Track Phantom. Gun Runner runner-up Snead is sitting out January racing, leaving the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes on Saturday mainly to Track Phantom and Nash. While eight were entered in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte, the race could go with as few as five. Trainer Brad Cox will run Nash and Ethan Energy but said Awesome Road will be scratched. Trainer Keith Desormeaux will scratch Next Level, while Tizzy Indy is only possible. If all three exit, everyone who races will earn a share of the 42 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, spread 20, 10, 6, 4, and 2 among the top five. The Lecomte is the last of 13 races on a card starting at noon Central and follows the Louisiana Stakes, headlined by Saudi Crown and Smile Happy. Also included in an all-stakes pick five ending on the Lecomte are two turf contests, the Colonel E.R. Bradley and the Marie Krantz, run over what should be a firm course, with the temporary turf rail down. The other race in the closing pick five, the last of three on the card, is the Silverbulletday for 3-year-old fillies, which drew a modest field of eight headed by West Omaha. Pick five bettors will find it difficult getting past the Lecomte’s big two. Lat Long has a sliver of hope exiting a 2 1/4-length win in a moderate Oaklawn Park maiden where he raced greenly in the homestretch, but he was handily defeated by Track Phantom in November. Can Group has turf credentials, and while fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf he turned in the fastest final quarter-mile, 22.74. Can Group’s two dirt starts earlier in the season yielded far lesser performances and trainer Mark Casse is giving the colt one more look on dirt, just to be sure. Ethan Energy is the best alternative to Track Phantom and Nash. Front-runners dominated Dec. 23 dirt races at Fair Grounds, but Ethan Energy rallied sharply from fourth at the five-sixteenths pole to win a maiden route by 5 1/4 lengths. His final 2 1/2 furlongs in 31.19 went considerably quicker than the closing fractions in the faster-paced Gun Runner, but Ethan Energy, sixth in his sprint debut last October, needs another step forward. Luis Saez replaces Florent Geroux on Ethan Energy; Geroux stays aboard Nash. Nash, a Godolphin homebred who had turned heads in morning training, debuted in October going 6 1/2 furlongs, a distance Cox said would be too short. It was, and Nash finished second before returning Nov. 12 at Churchill with his maiden tour de force. Nash led that day on a solid pace but stumbled at the start of the Gun Runner and wound up several lengths behind Track Phantom. Expect Nash, breaking from post 2, to jump quickly into the Lecomte fray. “I figured he’d break and be on the lead,” said Cox, who was disappointed in the Gun Runner but has not lost faith. “I think he’ll be closer this time. I’m confident the horse is going to run a big race.” Nash worked like a beast in Kentucky and has continued breezing with verve. In his final Lecomte drill on Jan. 13 he worked with Saudi Crown and more than held his own. Yet Nash, when he tried to reel in Track Phantom last month, simply came up short, crossing the finish soundly defeated. Track Phantom ran solid one-turn miles his first two starts but has come far forward in two-turn races, easily winning a Churchill maiden before holding up through the testing Gun Runner pace. Cristian Torres rode last month but gives way to Joel Rosario, who was aboard for the maiden win and has tactical options from post 7. A large-framed con of Quality Road, Track Phantom breezed well from the look of a post-Gun Runner workout video. He still has plenty of physical development remaining, but while the Gun Runner seemed like a hard race, trainer Steve Asmussen does not fear a step back. “I do not expect one. We got done exactly what we wanted in the Gun Runner. He’s got a ton of quality, and I don’t think we’ve got anywhere near the bottom of him,” Asmussen said. Bottom line, the Lecomte shapes up as a showdown between Nash and Track Phantom. Picking between them is the difficult part. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.