The Kentucky Derby is a race unlike any other, and it’s appropriate that many bettors approach it that way. For some, Derby opinions are formulated days or even weeks in advance, not by the usual method of analyzing past performances but instead by story lines or obscure historical statistics that captured their attention. Gronkowski, a British colt named after New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, is the presumed “poster horse” for the most overbet outsider in this year’s race, with the only question being if he will drop below the 14-1 odds at which the popular one-eyed Patch started last year before his 14th-place finish. Gronkowski isn’t alone in having a good story. Many others in this year’s Kentucky Derby field do, too. So, with that in mind, I thought I’d take a look at the leading contenders a couple weeks out from the Derby and try to sniff out underlay from overlay based on expected media and crowd attention. We begin with the horse most presume will be the favorite, Justify. No surprise here – he figures to be a media darling. He has a Hall of Fame trainer in Bob Baffert, who in addition to his Derby success has one-liners that always make him a popular interview. And while the biggest story line to this horse is a negative statistic of unraced 2-year-olds being winless in the Derby since Apollo in 1882, there really is no such thing as bad press. Be ready to read about that again and again until you begin confusing 1882 with 1492, the year Columbus sailed the ocean blue. Plus, with Justify being unbeaten, it’s easy to picture greatness and Triple Crown glory for him, at least relative to those who had trouble winning a Derby prep. Naturally, the same “Curse of Apollo” coverage will land Magnum Moon in the headlines, though I doubt he’ll receive quite the hype of Justify. He figures to get more of a passing mention in those stories. Mendelssohn also figures to command media attention as a legitimate hope to end the frustrations of horses who struggled in the Derby after winning in Dubai. And his popularity figures to top the charts once news gets out that this horse is from Ireland. It’s just wrong for Irish descendants to not back an Irish horse – that’s like them disliking U2 or something. Of course, there is only so much space in print and time on TV for all these stories, leaving someone to fall between the cracks. And if I had to forecast which contenders those might be, I’d guess Audible and Bolt d’Oro. There naturally will be plenty of interviews in these next two weeks conducted with Audible’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, but with him having four horses for the Derby – Magnum Moon, Audible, Vino Russo, and Noble Indy – it will be hard for infrequent bettors to remember all their names, much less decide which one to bet. Knowing Audible’s lazy training history, he also figures to be largely overshadowed in clocker reports from Churchill Downs leading up to the race. As a consequence of these factors, it would not surprise me to see him drift to 10-1 odds or thereabouts on Derby Day, which, as I examine his PPs, would represent value on a horse who has won four consecutive races, including the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Bolt d’Oro could start in that vicinity on the odds board, too – again because I doubt his story will hit home with the media. The tale of a near-champion at 2 who hasn’t crossed the wire first since taking the FrontRunner last year, except through a controversial disqualification, is hard to make interesting over two sentences, much less over 2,000 words. But evaluate this horse by his form, and he is likeable in the Derby, particularly if one holds the belief that Justify’s inexperience could cost him in the 20-horse scramble. Because if so, this horse is as fast as all the other American horses, and without the blowout victories that would reduce his odds. Like Audible, this horse could be dangerous in the 10-1 range in the Derby. His lack of recent first-across-the-post wins has nothing to do with poor form, only his having faced the toughest company over a three-race stretch of any horse in the field. :: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis