We may now know who the favorite is for Kentucky Derby 150. By nightfall Saturday, we should have a pretty good line on the field likely to line up against impressive Florida Derby winner Fierceness at Churchill Downs on May 4. The chase for points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby hits a virtual climax Saturday with the Grade 1 Blue Grass, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial each offering 200 Kentucky Derby qualifying points – distributed to the top five finishers of each race on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis. The Derby field is limited to 20 starters – as many as 24 may enter – and the points system determines who’s in and out. Churchill reserves one spot for a horse from Japan and one for a horse from Europe, those horses able to earn points in select races overseas. T O Password, from Japan, has accepted an invitation to run in the Derby. It is not expected that a European-based horse will come. There is a final European points-race on Saturday, but none of the 16 horses nominated for the Cardinal Stakes are nominated for the Triple Crown. Depending on what happens this weekend, it is possible that 50 points could be the cut-off to make it into the Derby. That would be most points needed since this system was put in place in 2013. Last year, 23 horses entered the Derby and the race ultimately ran with 18. To make the body of the field, a horse needed 45 points. The last also-eligible, King Russell, got in with 40 points. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2024: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Currently, Hades and El Grande O would be the last two in the field, both with 30 points. But, only four of the current top 19 points earners are expected to run this weekend, making it likely those two will be passed on the points list. Dornoch (60 points) and Sierra Leone (55), who rank ninth and 10th, respectively, in the points standings, head the 11-horse Blue Grass Stakes. Deterministic (50) and El Grande O are part of a 13-horse field entered in the Wood. Of the other 11 horses, 10 have 10 or fewer points, so a top-two finish is paramount for any of those horses to make the Derby. Uncle Heavy, with 20 points, would likely need a top two-finish as well though third would give him 45 points and likely land him on the bubble. In two of the last three years, the Wood has produced Derby qualifiers – Lord Miles (2023) and Bourbonic (2021) – who were not even in the Derby picture until they pulled their upsets. Saturday, Tuscan Sky, who is 2 for 2 but has no points, could go off second choice in the Wood while Resilience, who has 10 points for his fourth in the Risen Star, is another contender who could move up the leaderboard. After Dornoch and Sierra Leone, the horses in the Blue Grass with the most points are Seize the Grey (27), Just a Touch (25) and Encino (20). Just a Touch, second as the favorite to Deterministic in the Gotham, may be the most intriguing runner in the Blue Grass as he makes his first start around two turns and presumably first on a dry track. Top Conor, a debut winner going a mile at Gulfstream Park, is making just his second career start. In California, the road to the Derby has thus far been a dead end. Going back to last fall, horses trained by Bob Baffert have dominated the four Derby points-scoring races at Santa Anita. Baffert’s horses have been ineligible to earn qualifying points due to a ban by Churchill extended through this year partly owing to the medication positive and subsequent disqualification of 2021 Kentucky Derby first-place finisher Medina Spirit. Thus, in California, only 49 of the 184 points available in four races have been awarded. Add in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile results – where Baffert runners Muth and Prince of Monaco ran second and fifth – and Muth’s victory in the Arkansas Derby, a total of 253 points “earned” by Baffert horses have gone unallocated. Baffert was expected to have two runners in a seven-horse Santa Anita Derby where the Phil D’Amato-trained Stronghold (25 points) and Mc Vay (19), sent out by John Shirreffs, will try to earn enough points to qualify for the Derby. The California-based Stronghold earned 20 of his points by winning the Sunland Park Derby. For horses who may get pushed out of a top 19 spot on Saturday, there is next weekend’s Lexington Stakes at Keeneland that offers 20 points to the winner. Jose D’Angelo, the trainer of No More Time, who currently ranks 15th with 45 points, said he would prefer to not run in that race because it’s only two weeks before the Kentucky Derby. Joe Orseno, trainer of Florida Derby fifth-place finisher Hades, said he would not run in the Lexington. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.