Kentucky Derby bettors have waited two decades for another horse like War Emblem, the 2002 Derby winner whose odds were out of whack compared to his last-start speed figure. War Emblem earned a gaudy 112 Beyer the start before the Kentucky Derby, seven points higher than any rival’s last start. However, War Emblem earned the number defeating lesser company in a lesser race – the Illinois Derby at Sportsman’s Park. Few horseplayers trusted him to reproduce the number against better company at Churchill Downs. Not only did War Emblem reproduce his Illinois Derby high figure, he improved two points and led the Kentucky Derby gate to wire. The biggest surprise, because hindsight is perfect, was his whopping $43 payoff. High-figure horses rarely start at high odds in the Derby, and since War Emblem, none has. The past 20 years, only three Derby runners with the highest last-out Beyer started at double-digit odds. None hit the board – the filly Devil May Care (10.90-1 in 2010), Archarcharch (12.50-1 in 2011), and Materiality (11.50-1 in 2015). :: Take your handicapping to the next level and play with FREE DRF Past Performances - Formulator or Classic.  Meanwhile, a handful of high-figure starters this century did win the Derby: Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), War Emblem, Big Brown (2008), California Chrome (2014), and Justify (2018). All but War Emblem were favored. Maximum Security, second favorite in 2019, entered with the highest last-out figure, finished first, and was disqualified for interference. Since 2000, five high-figure Derby starters finished second. How will the high-figure starters perform this year? Similarities between 2002 longshot winner War Emblem and 2023 longshot Two Phil’s are worth noting. Perhaps the Derby is due for an upset by an overlooked Midwest-based colt with a high Beyer from a lesser racetrack. But in the case of Two Phil’s, the surface on which he earned his number is problematic. Two Phil’s earned a 101 Beyer last out, the highest last-out figure in this year’s Derby field. He did it in a romping victory at Turfway Park, and therein lies the rub. Turfway has an all-weather surface. On dirt, Two Phil’s has never been close to the triple-digit fig he earned on synthetic. The handicapping dilemma is whether to downgrade Two Phil’s in the Derby due to the surface change, or upgrade Two Phil’s based on his improvement. In other words, accept the figure at face value. Given his likely price in the 15-1 range, bettors might consider the possibility he is simply a good horse getting better. Besides, Two Phil’s has run well on dirt. Just not particularly fast. If handicapping was as simple as identifying the top figure, the game would be easy. But picking the Derby winner is not easy, and high figures in prep races are not always reproduced in a 20-horse Derby. The top last-out figures this year are bunched – five range from 99 to 101. Excluding synthetic winner Two Phil’s, four dirt runners enter this year’s Derby off a 99 or 100 Beyer. Practical Move leads with back-to-back 100s; Tapit Trice, Verifying, and Skinner enter with 99s. Forte, presumptive favorite and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, enters with the sixth-highest last-out figure, 95. His declining figures (100 to 98 to 95) is not a concern. Both BC Juvenile winners who won the Derby, Nyquist in 2016 and Street Sense in 2007, entered with declining figures. In addition to surface-switch uncertainty regarding Two Phil’s, Derma Sotogake also presents a speed-figure challenge. Beyers are not produced for Dubai, but the 2023 UAE Derby won by Derma Sotogake was the second-fastest at Meydan. Considering track variant, his 1:55.81 was probably “faster” than the 1:55.19 by 2018 winner Mendelssohn, who was given a 106 Beyer. One could argue that Derma Sotogake, theoretically, is this year’s high-figure starter. :: Bet the races on DRF Bets! Sign up with code WINNING to get a $250 Deposit Match, $10 Free Bet, and FREE DRF Formulator.  While some will discard high-figure entrants Two Phil’s and Derma Sotogake based on footing and international uncertainty, a recent Derby suggests caution before tossing a horse who earned a big figure on a surface, or circuit, dissimilar to Churchill Downs. Exaggerator entered the 2016 Derby with the top last-start figure, a 103 earned on a sloppy track. Could he do the same on fast? Exaggerator did not win the Derby, but he ran second; his Beyer dipped only two points to 101. Two Phil’s, Practical Move, and Derma Sotogake rank as this year’s fastest entrants based on last-start figures, authentic or theoretical. But top contenders Tapit Trice, Verifying, and Skinner are close behind. Derby bettors have waited a long time for a high-figure longshot with a realistic chance. In the odds range of 15-1, the price on Two Phil’s seems out of whack compared to his last-start figure. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.