Derby Angles features DRF handicappers looking at individual handicapping factors and how they may play out in this year’s Kentucky Derby. The six-part series begins with Dan Illman’s take on pedigree and continues with Dick Jerardi on Beyer Speed Figure Patterns, Dave Litfin’s  look at “trips,” Brad Free’s examination of post position, Kenny Peck’s pace projection, and Marcus Hersh on winning profiles and betting value. International Star – Once he got around two turns on dirt, his Beyers went up immediately and have crept up with every start. This year, the figures have gone up six points, three points and five points. With the promise of a solid pace to run at it, this colt should be sitting on another forward move and his first triple-digit Beyer, which absolutely gives him a chance to hit the board. Probably needs a pace meltdown to win. Dortmund – Showed great promise as a 2-year-old with Beyers of 81, 97 and 91. Has more than fulfilled that promise with 3-year-old Beyers of 104, 104 and 106 while remaining unbeaten in six starts. Given that he has shown more speed as a 3-year-old, but was able to win from off the pace as a 2-year-old, this massive colt could be sitting on the race of his life and has a realistic chance to hit 110 or more on the Beyer scale. Carpe Diem – Even though he has been extremely impressive in his two stakes wins this year, this beautifully bred colt has not made a giant speed figure move from his 2-year-old season when he got numbers of 84, 91 and 93. This year, his numbers are 98 and 95, nice but not the kind of improvement you would like to see from a serious Derby contender. More likely to run in the 95 to 98 range again than get the 105 to 110 it is going to take to win this Derby. American Pharoah – Put a line through his first start and you have one of the more amazing talents to arrive at the Derby in recent memory, with four consecutive triple-digit Beyers, two as a 2-year-old and two as a 3-year-old. The pair of 101’s he ran last year suggested this is a horse capable of giant speed figures. The 105 he got when winning the Arkansas Derby is more than a suggestion; it is a shout. More likely to hit 110 in the Derby than go backward. Frosted – The 103 in the Wood Memorial came without warning, but it was after a throat operation and in his second start with blinkers. The 89 in the 2014 Remsen was promising as was the 95 in the Holy Bull. The Wood did not look at all fluky. It is likely this colt will run back to that number, which can certainly put him on the superfecta ticket, if not in the winner’s circle. Mubtaahij - Our best Beyer estimate for this colt’s dominant UAE Derby win is a 97. Even with his terrific form at Meydan over the last four months, four wins and a second, that number is not even close to what is going to take to win this Derby. And that is assuming he is going to bring the same form after the long trip. He is more likely to regress off that mediocre estimate than go forward. Materiality – This is the toughest call in the race. Comes in with the best Beyer going for him, the 110 he earned in the Florida Derby, and nearly a century and a half of history going against him. Is this finally going to be the exception to the “can’t win without racing at 2 Derby rule.” In a year with less talent in the gate, I would say very possibly. Not in this race, with the pace and race pressure. More likely to go back than forward. El Kabeir - It was clear after the Jerome and Withers that this was the teenager who dominated in high school, but could not keep up with the later-maturing and more-talented athletes in college. Last year, he got Beyers of 93 and 94. This year, it has been 95, 93, 88 and 94, super consistent, but not good enough to be close in the Derby. Let’s call it a 95, which should beat half the field, but which also means half the field is going to beat him. Upstart – If he gets a really, hot contested pace, he has the numbers to spring an upset, with the 102 he got last year and the 105 and 108 he has gotten this year. He will be farther back than usual, but that may be a good thing and could even help him run to the very best Beyers of his career and maybe even better. Great horse to use in tris and supers because of his consistency and proven ability to hit triple digits on the Beyer scale. Far Right – Fully exposed as not nearly fast enough with Beyers of 89, 91 and 92 in three 2015 starts. Will have to pass nearly the entire field and likely will pass half because many are just too slow. Should catch a few more that hit the wall in the stretch, but there is no reason to think this is any more than a low 90s Beyer horse on his best day. Itsaknockout – There is nothing in this colt’s history to suggest he can hit 90 on the Beyer scale, much less improve so dramatically that he has a chance to threaten the board. When you see a 3-year-old get an 88 in his second start on the Derby trail and immediately regress to a 76 that is as bad a sign as you can get. Much more likely to run in the 70s or 80s than get into the 90s. Firing Line – Love the Beyer pattern with this colt. Got an 86 in his debut, followed by an 87 and 91 during his solid 2-year-old season. Followed that up with a 104 and 97 this year. His three losses have been by a less than a length total, with two photo finish defeats to Dortmund. Absolutely expect him to run in the 105 vicinity and that could be good enough to get him a big piece, perhaps all of it. Danzig Moon – Has gotten gradually faster from 2 to 3, but he was never that fast at 2 and is not remotely close to fast enough now. The 69 and 83 last year were nice efforts, but not the kind that portend Derby. The 87, 76 and 90 when a never-really-in-it second to Carpe Diem in the Blue Grass were better, but still way too slow. Figure somewhere between a 90 and 92 for an improving horse that still has too much improving to do. War Story – Kept showing the potential to explode this winter in Louisiana, but never did and now looks like he has hit a plateau. International Star beat him three times and the third was the most definitive. His last four Beyers of 86, 86, 91 and 91 are not indicative of a horse with a Derby chance. There is no reason to think he won’t run a low 90 again, but that won’t get him anything against this field. Tencendur – Not sure where that 100 when second in the Wood Memorial came from exactly. His previous four Beyers were 68, 75, 89 and 82. El Kabeir had handled him easily twice. Given how much more difficult this race is, he is more likely to run closer to a high 80 than improve to a higher triple-digit number. Stanford – Got Beyers of 93 and 98 in his only two route races, but both came after setting a moderate pace with an uncontested lead. Neither of those scenarios will happen here, so this is a horse that could regress dramatically. Mr. Z – Has lost 11 straight races and has not been able to improve his late 2-year-old Beyers at all. Got 90 and 91 Beyers in his final two starts last year. His best figure this year has been a 90 when third in the Southwest and Arkansas Derby. Much more likely to hit the wall and run in the 70s than to get into high 90s. Ocho Ocho Ocho – Unbeaten in three starts as a 2-year-old, topping out with a 90 in the Delta Jackpot. Has made no forward move this year with a 76 and then an 86. Even that 90 gives him no chance and he is not very likely to get a number anywhere near that good. Bolo – Beyers are even better on dirt than grass. His thirds in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby were both solid, with Beyers of 101 and 95. He just had the misfortune of running against Dortmund in both races. Probably going to be farther back than in any race of his career, but has the type of move and talent that could put him on the super ticket if enough speed horses and chasers hit the wall. Should run right around 100. Keen Ice - Improved nicely from 2 to 3, but started from too low a base. The 76 he got in the Remsen improved to an 87, 88 and 87 this year in races against some of top Derby contenders. Was not close in any of those races and does not have a number that can win. If the race collapses and everything possible goes right, the colt could hit the 90s on the Beyer scale and sneak into the super ticket at a big price.