Brad Cox won a Kentucky Derby the first time he ran a horse in the race. Granted, Mandaloun’s Derby victory in 2021 did not prove especially satisfying. Mandaloun crossed the finish second and only officially became the Derby victor more than 1,000 days later, after a legal fight regarding race winner Medina Spirit’s disqualification for a positive drug test came to an end. It was the second time in three years that the first-place Derby finisher did not end up the Derby winner, Maximum Security having been disqualified for interference in 2019, elevating Country House to first and giving trainer Bill Mott his first Derby. “At least he got a win picture out of it,” Cox deadpanned in a telephone interview earlier this week. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Cox in his first Derby not only sent out the runner-up but also saddled race favorite Essential Quality to a fourth-place finish. Essential Quality went on to win the Belmont and the Travers, and in the end might have been the best horse to race in that Derby. “For some reason he picked that day to lean in on other horses,” Cox said. “I thought we had two really good shots that year.” Cox has won multiple Eclipse Awards, and only a couple trainers, if that, get sent a stronger group of young dirt prospects each season. Medina Spirit’s disqualification led to his trainer, Bob Baffert, being banned three years from the Derby, a race he has won a record six times. Yet even sans Baffert, Cox’s first run at the Derby remains his strongest. His three starters in 2022 finished seventh, 10th, and 18th. In 2023 he ran third, fifth, 16th, and 17th. “I don’t know that I ever thought winning the Derby would be easy, and I can’t say I started a Derby since 2021 with as much confidence as I had that year,” Cox said. We’re coming to the third weekend in March, seven weeks before the 2025 Derby. Cox has prospects, but none that would leave him bursting with confidence. Last fall, Patch Adams scorched a seven-furlong Churchill Downs maiden, winning by 10 1/2 lengths with an elite 98 Beyer Speed Figure, but his fourth in the Southwest Stakes and another fourth last weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby did not measure up to the promise of that maiden score. Disco Time, 3 for 3 to start his career, has not posted a timed workout since winning the Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 18. Horses like Admiral Dennis and Gunmetal have flashed talent; none has panned out. Tappan Street, headed to the Florida Derby after a Gulfstream Park maiden win and a second in the Holy Bull Stakes, probably tops Cox’s remaining hopes. Flood Zone, after being privately purchased by Wathnan Racing, won the Gotham Stakes in his first start for Cox, but Wathnan seems focused on the Dubai World Cup card, and Flood Zone makes his next start in the U.A.E. Derby. This weekend, Cox has two entered in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs, a new stop along the road to the Derby. John Hancock, winner of the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay in his most recent start, will be scratched in favor of the March 22 Louisiana Derby, where he will join another Cox trainee, high-priced maiden-claiming winner Instant Replay. That leaves Rapture as Cox’s only Virginia Derby starter. Second in his Gulfstream Park debut, Rapture shipped with Patch Adams to Oaklawn in February and won a maiden route there. The Uncle Mo colt is of modest scope and in his maiden win earned a decidedly modest 82 Beyer, but Cox expressed optimism. “He’s moved forward. I like him a lot,” Cox said. With John Hancock out, no more than nine start in the $500,000 Virginia Derby, which until this year was a turf race run in late summer. Colonial, owned by Churchill Downs Inc., has a three-day spring meet for the first time, and CDI added the Virginia Derby as a major qualifier for the Kentucky Derby. Sure to be favored in the Virginia Derby – Getaway Car. Winner last out of the Sunland Derby, Getaway Car sits several rungs down the pecking order among Baffert’s bevy of Derby hopes. Those include Barnes and Citizen Bull, third and fourth choices, respectively, in Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch this week, as well as two more on Derby Watch, Rodriguez and Madaket Road. Baffert also trains Cornucopian, who debuted at Oaklawn earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure and had his first work since that race on March 5. That’s a dazzling array of 3-year-old talent that Cox, for now, at least, can’t match. And time is running short. “There’s a lot still unknown out of the ones that would have [Derby qualifying] points now,” Cox said. “I wouldn’t sit here and say that in November I had anything that I could look down and say, ‘This is my Derby horse.’ ” Should Rapture step up and win Saturday, the 50 points he earns will get him into the Derby. Flood Zone, who got 50 in the Gotham, already has sufficient points to make the field. A first- or second-place finish by Tappan Street in Florida or Cox’s two in Louisiana, and they also will get into the Derby. If all went perfectly, Cox could have five runners in a race he’d dearly love to win outright. And that might not be enough to surpass his 2021 showing. “There’s one Derby winner and 19 Derby starters, and there are probably 10 more horses that have points and won’t even get an opportunity. And then I’ve learned the last few years the hard way, you got to trip out,” Cox said. No one at this point could reasonably argue that last year’s Derby winner, Mystik Dan, is a better horse than the two he beat in a photo finish, Sierra Leone and Forever Young. He might not even be better than Just a Touch, who finished a troubled 20th last May for Cox, who also nabbed another fourth with Catching Freedom. Catching Freedom, too, is far from a superstar, but the process Saturday in Virginia and over the next several weeks is to give yourself as many chances as possible. Cox plans to do so. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.