Kentucky Derby picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers across the United States. Mike Beer 1. Disarm 2. Tapit Trice 3. Hit Show Surely, the connections of DISARM would have preferred to make it into the field without having to turn up for the Lexington Stakes three weeks ago. He faced a drop back in distance that was not insignificant and then did not get a very clever ride while settling for third. Disarm flashed potential as a 2-year-old, and he ran better than it looks in his first two starts this year while compromised by pace both times. He ran particularly well in the Louisiana Derby, when he got distance to work with for the first time. He switches back to Joel Rosario. Disarm needs a big step forward, but he is all potential and might be sneaky at a big price in this well-matched Derby field. TAPIT TRICE has been highly regarded from the start, and he has been coming forward strongly for two-time Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher. He was much more professional than in previous starts winning a fast running of the Blue Grass in his final prep, and he might still have more upside than anyone in this field. Not sure drawing toward the inside is ideal for him, but expecting a strong run if he can work out a trip. HIT SHOW might have more to offer over longer distances, and he has a chance to take a more significant step forward here after winding up in an uncomfortable position through the stretch run of his final prep. The New York path to the Derby was not the toughest one this year, but Hit Show has improved slightly with every start while combining a handy running style with a solid stretch kick, something that could serve him well in this race should he manage to work out a trip from the inside post. Think he can improve one more time at a price. Brad Free 1. Angel of Empire 2. Two Phil’s 3. Reincarnate 4. Derma Sotogake The scratch of Skinner (sick, elevated temperature) makes ANGEL OF EMPIRE the substitute choice in the Kentucky Derby. He is a worthy replacement based on a last-out romp in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, and his victory two back in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. On dirt, each start by Angel of Empire was better than the start before; he has never taken a step backward. His last was his best yet. Facing modest rivals, he rolled by more than four lengths. Although his 94 Beyer is soft, a low figure is less damning this year because none of the Derby starters are particularly fast, anyway. In winning last out at 1 1/8 miles, Angel of Empire gave every indication he can handle the Kentucky Derby distance of 1 1/4 miles. The challenge facing Angel of Empire, and every other late-runner, is pace. This year’s Derby is somewhat light on genuine speed. A slow pace would be compromising. With trepidation, Angel of Empire is the surrogate selection for Skinner. TWO PHIL’S, who crushed a Grade 3 on the all-weather track at Turfway Park last out, is elevated from third to second preference. But he is a tough read due to the surface switch. He is either synthetic specialist with limited dirt ability, or a late-blooming colt whose field-high last-out 101 Beyer can be taken at face value regardless of surface. Since his odds are high, and previous dirt races okay, he merits respect. When he finished behind Angel of Empire two starts back on dirt, Two Phil’s was compromised by a premature move. He got his act together last time out and reportedly trained well on dirt since his romp on synthetic. Two recent Derby winners prepped on synthetic at Turfway – Rich Strike last year, Animal Kingdom in 2011. REINCARNATE looms a longshot theft candidate in a Derby field without a confirmed pacesetter. Reincarnate has more speed than he showed in either recent start and is expected to employ an aggressive style in a Derby that could unfold at a modest tempo. If he gets comfortable setting the pace, a front-running upset is not impossible. His rider, John Velazquez, recognizes the importance of speed, having won the Derby three of the last six years with front-runners or pace-pressers. Bombs away on the front end? DERMA SOTOGAKE could be considered the high-figure horse in the Derby field if the track variant at Meydan is factored in. Bred and raced in Japan, Derma Sotogake shipped to Dubai for the UAE Derby at Meydan and rolled by more than five lengths. His performance is believed to be “faster” than 2018 UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn, who was assigned a 106 Beyer. Although figures are not assigned for Dubai races, a theoretical fig for Derma Sotogake would be higher than Mendelssohn. That would make Derma Sotogake the top-figure horse in the field. He has tactical speed for a pressing trip outside Reincarnate; Japanese runners have had increasing success in top international races. :: DRF Kentucky Derby Package: Save on PPs, Clocker Reports, Betting Strategies, and more. Marcus Hersh 1. Derma Sotogake 2. Two Phil’s 3. Angel of Empire 4. Mandarin Hero Let’s be frank. Japanese breeders over the last couple decades have bought a sizeable portion of the best American bloodstock. Japanese horses won two Breeders’ Cup races in 2021. They dominated the 2021 Saudi Cup races. In Dubai on March 25, a Japan-based horse won the Dubai World Cup – no American horse to be found – and Japanese horses finished 1-2-3-4 in the UAE Derby, Americans 11-13-14. If there’s a standout among this American crop of 3-year-olds, he’s yet to reveal himself. I’m not saying it’s a bad bunch of horses in the Derby – but I am saying this seems like a good year to support DERMA SOTOGAKE, from ascendant Japan, over the Americans.  Yes, the UAE Derby has been a negative key race vis-a-vis the Kentucky Derby. Recall, also, that Earth once didn’t exist. The past does not necessarily predict the future. Derma Sotogake undoubtedly ran a fast race in Dubai. That has happened before, but this front-running tour de force came over a surface that was not, as has been the case on many Dubai World Cup cards, promoting early speed. Moreover, Derma Sotogake, while he does have speed, a great asset in a relatively paceless Derby, is not a speed horse. He has come from midpack and farther behind the leaders than that while steadily improving throughout a career that has seen him race nine furlongs and farther five times already. Do not come at me with, “He’s by a sprinter, Mind Your Biscuits!” We already know this horse stays. I don’t want to hear the “Who has he beat?” argument, either. Mandarin Hero came from Japan with lesser form than this and would’ve won the Santa Anita Derby with a cleaner trip.  Christophe Lemaire messed up his Derby ride last year with Crown Pride, but he’s one of the best jockeys in the world; expect him to push the right buttons. I liked Derma Sotogake’s workout last week and even liked his Tuesday blowout – and I like him to win the Kentucky Derby. The question with TWO PHIL’S is obvious: Was it the switch to a synthetic surface or more general improvement that yielded a performance in the Jeff Ruby Steaks that could win the Derby? I’m siding with general improvement. This colt has a wealth of experience and has gotten in plenty of tough spots already. He’s relaxed, has positional pace, and good form over the Churchill surface. His physical appearance is excellent, as have been his last two works, and the monster Jeff Ruby gallop-out says 1 1/4 miles will not be an issue. Race shape also could negatively impact ANGEL OF EMPIRE, another closer and another horse I strongly believe still is improving. There are legitimate knocks on his company lines, but, as they say, you can only beat who lines up against you. MANDARIN HERO drawing into the race could prove meaningful. He is a roly-poly looking horse, but size is the most overrated characteristic in racehorses. He is brave, athletic, and handy, and all the things I said earlier about Japanese Thoroughbreds apply here, as well. I do have some concern that he has done no real morning work since his last race, as his two breezes barely qualify as such.  Tapit Trice, if he runs his usual race, is in for a world of trouble. Dan Illman 1. Two Phil's 2. Derma Sotogake 3. Mandarin Hero 4. Tapit Trice Although TWO PHIL's gave his breakthrough performance over a weaker field on a synthetic surface in the Jeff Ruby and he has good prior dirt form including a Grade 3 victory at Churchill Downs as a 2-year-old. He middle-moved into quick fractions in both the Lecomte and Risen Star at Fair Grounds this winter, and both of those races were won by horses coming from well off the pace. Recent bullet workouts at Hawthorne indicate he's retained his form, so it's all a question of whether he's good enough on dirt at this demanding distance. The price will be right in what looks on paper like a very competitive Kentucky Derby. The Larry Rivelli barn is six for its last 10 (60 percent, $3.60 ROI) moving from synthetic to dirt. DERMA SOTOGAKE might have taken advantage of an inside-friendly track when wiring the UAE Derby in a race where they ran 1-2-3 all the way around, but he sure ran fast that day, and he has the versatility to sit off the pace if necessary. Japanese-trained horses have excelled on major international days of racing over the past few years, and this colt figures in the mix when they hit the three-eighths pole. MANDARIN HERO drew into the race after scratches, and he looked very strong when just missing in the Santa Anita Derby. He showed good agility to follow the winner along the inside and was stymied a bit when attempting to get out late on the second turn. He eventually eased to the outside in the upper stretch and was gaining on Practical Move late. He acts like the extra distance won't be an issue. Don't love TAPIT TRICE's post position as the long-striding colt seems at his best when able to get outside of horses. He received a very strong final prep in the Blue Grass as he not only ran a fast race but had to fight it out to the finish. Expect a strong late kick. Have a great deal of respect for champion Forte, whose credentials speak for themselves. He’s going to take a good amount of money in this Derby, however, and doesn’t have a huge edge over this field in terms of speed figures. Mike Welsch 1. Tapit Trice 2. Angel of Empire 3. Verifying I found it difficult to hone in on any one or two horses with real confidence in Derby lineup, and nobody is absolutely knocking my socks off in the final works leading up to the race, as has so often happened in years past. With that in mind, I will settle on TAPIT TRICE as a top selection. He comes off a series of impressive efforts this season, including a game victory in the Blue Grass in what was arguably the best of all the final Derby preps. He has seemingly flourished coming out of that race – has really caught the eye, both in his works and daily gallops, over the past two weeks. Would have loved to have seen a more favorable outside draw. ANGEL OF EMPIRE certainly seems to be peaking at the right time, with his last two races his best yet, including a dominating performance in the Arkansas Derby. Has worked like a horse sitting on another big effort. VERIFYING gave Tapit Trice all he could handle before succumbing in the Blue Grass while turning in far and away his best effort yet. He is another training forwardly coming out of the race, but is faced with overcoming what could be a very compromising post position draw. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.