Kentucky Derby picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers across the United States. Mike Beer 1. Mo Donegal 2. Tawny Port 3. Smile Happy 4. Zandon MO DONEGAL was always going to need a trip due to his running style, so breaking from the rail is not necessarily an added difficulty. Save his 3-year-old debut over Gulfstream Park’s speed-favoring track, this colt has used a strong stretch kick to win all three starts since getting a distance of ground to work with, and he was even finishing best in that Holy Bull before running out of time. He already has a win over the morning-line favorite and is one of the few with no concerns regarding the added distance. He just needs to find room in the stretch. TAWNY PORT has posted two of his three career wins on a different surface, but he ran an underrated race with trouble when making his dirt debut in a very tough Risen Star. He returned to dirt in the Lexington Stakes three weeks ago in a bid to make the Derby field and came away a convincing winner after a wide trip. He is making his third start in five weeks and is going to have to improve again, but he also is going to be a big price and might be better than he looks on paper. SMILE HAPPY has disappointed a bit while losing as the favorite in both starts so far this year. His Risen Star appeared to be a useful effort off the layoff while saving ground at the back under a conservative ride before putting in a nice run to outfinish Zandon for second. He didn’t run as well when no match for that rival in the Blue Grass, but he was wide all the way after an indecisive ride and might be set to rebound with a better trip. ZANDON has gained momentum quickly in the run-up to this race, and his impressive closing display in the Blue Grass led to him being installed as the morning-line favorite. He made an impression right away when dropping a narrow decision to Mo Donegal while making just the second start of his career in the Remsen, and he did not have a great trip when no threat to Epicenter in his return from the layoff. :: Get Derby Clocker Reports from Mike Welsch and the DRF Clocker Team to access exclusive insights from the morning workouts Brad Free 1. Epicenter 2. Crown Pride 3. White Abarrio 4. Summer Is Tomorrow Except for a potentially compromising draw, the fast and improving EPICENTER enters without an apparent flaw. Although he has speed, it will not be easy to establish position after breaking from post 3. He is inside every other front-runner, including a speedster to his immediate outside in post 4. Epicenter, if he sends, risks getting tangled inside a multi-horse pace duel. If he rates, he risks being shuffled back. Of course, bad trips are a possibility from any post in the Derby. Epicenter, a natural front-runner, showcased his versatility last out when he crushed the Louisiana Derby. He tucked behind rivals, took dirt, angled out, and dominated. His Beyer Speed Figures are ascending, and he reportedly worked super at Churchill Downs. Furthermore, the 3-year-olds he defeated this season at Fair Grounds were above average. His graded stakes win two back was validated when three who finished behind him subsequently won graded stakes. Based on the key factors of condition, class, speed, and pace, the improving Epicenter is solid. If he gets the right trip from near the inside, he should be tough to beat. CROWN PRIDE merits longshot consideration, despite the historical challenge facing Dubai shippers to the Derby – 16 tried, none hit the board. But Japanese runners have achieved stunning success recently in dirt races on Breeders’ Cup, Saudi Cup, and Dubai World Cup cards. Crown Pride, who began his career in Japan, where he was bred, employed an off-the-pace style winning the UAE Derby last out. That style should be effective in a race likely to unfold at an honest tempo. He can sit, wait, rally wide, and outrun his odds. Florida Derby winner WHITE ABARRIO might be better than perceived. He won the Grade 3 Holy Bull in February, despite an imperfect training pattern after getting sick. He had another hiccup, albeit minor, prior to his recent unspectacular Florida Derby victory. But now the gray enters with no reported setbacks, his off-the-pace style suits the likely Derby pace. The front-runner SUMMER IS TOMORROW, post 4, slips in under the radar. The UAE Derby runner-up might be the speed of the speed. He faces other gas, including Messier and Classic Causeway, but longshot Summer Is Tomorrow merits respect at a giant price. Question is, will Messier and Classic Causeway dare to go with him? Taiba is the fastest on figures, and least seasoned. His two starts include the Santa Anita Derby in which he earned another triple-digit Beyer. His raw talent is undeniable, he has speed and is versatile. Barring misfortune, he could get a good trip just off the speed. :: Kentucky Derby Headquarters: Get the latest news, info on contenders, past performances, picks, and more  Marcus Hersh 1. Zandon 2. Mo Donegal 3. Epicenter 4. White Abarrio I love EPICENTER and intended to make him my top Derby selection since seeing his final workout for this race Sunday. Even in an easy one-mile gallop Tuesday morning, the colt looked exceptional. Yet the longer one goes through this Kentucky Derby form, the more one starts to feel, unlike most recent renewals, this Derby is going to suffer a pace collapse. People keep talking about how overseas gate speed isn’t the same as American gate speed, but Summer Is Tomorrow isn’t a European horse, he’s only raced on Dubai dirt; he’s very good out of the gate and is going to be ridden to lead. Epicenter is right behind him, and if he’s able to snug right in behind Summer Is Tomorrow, he can get a favorable trip and win. But what about Messier, who is likely to be sent forward out of the gate? And even wider, Classic Causeway, who breaks as well as anyone and has to be ridden for speed. If any of these threatens to get in front of Summer Is Tomorrow, Joel Rosario on Epicenter has no good option: He either pushes forward to the front and goes too fast, or loses his spot in the pocket, putting his mount in a difficult spot. So, it’s closers for me, and were I braver, I’d take the better value on MO DONEGAL over ZANDON, who has the possibly fatal distinction of inhabiting the dual role of wiseguy horse and favorite. All Mo Donegal has to do to save ground is leave the gate from post 1, and this plucky colt is going to come with his run and relish the 1 1/4 miles. He ran down a nice horse, Early Voting, to win the Wood and is going to outrun his Derby price. Zandon just feels like a superior animal. In the Blue Grass, he showed gears Mo Donegal simply doesn’t possess, and he has since trained lights out into the Derby. He’s likely negative value in the win pool, but . . . oh well. WHITE ABARRIO comes here underrated and overpriced, and he, too, will be well off the lead, though ground loss is a concern. Doubt he’s quite good enough to take down the whole thing but couldn’t rule it out. Finally, it’s not impossible Taiba is a complete freak and becomes the first twice-started Derby winner in 139 years. :: Get Kentucky Derby Betting Strategies for exclusive wager recommendations, contender profiles, pedigree analysis, and more Dan Illman 1. Epicenter 2. Taiba 3. Pioneer of Medina 4. Messier EPICENTER was pretty dominant in New Orleans over the winter and into the spring, with the only blemish on his Fair Grounds record due to being cooked on a very fast pace in the Lecomte. He was ridden with extreme confidence when drubbing nine others in the Risen Star, then showed a new dimension by rating from just off the leaders in the Louisiana Derby. That versatility should be beneficial in this year’s Kentucky Derby as he has the speed to get good position going into the first turn. He’s one of only three horses in the field that cracked the 100 Beyer Speed Figure plateau, owns a prior win at Churchill Downs, and wouldn’t mind a wet track. He appears to be training well for top-notch connections and ticks many boxes. TAIBA might be the most naturally talented runner in this field, but he is inexperienced with only two starts to his name. Both of those races were brilliant efforts, and he successfully stretched out a demanding three furlongs to beat a couple of very nice colts in the Santa Anita Derby. The break will be key as he is unaccustomed to racing behind horses and getting dirt kicked in his face in the afternoons. If he leaves the gates clean, he shouldn’t be too far away when the real racing begins. Although PIONEER OF MEDINA has yet to win a stakes race, his Beyers improved drastically this year and he wasn’t far behind Smile Happy and Zandon when fourth to the top pick in the Risen Star. Highly regarded by trainer Todd Pletcher and company earlier in the season, he might adopt more patient running tactics with blinkers removed. MESSIER should be considered a major threat as he is among the faster horses in this crop, has the tactical speed to get close to the pace, and might have taken the worst of it in the Santa Anita Derby. He was used early in order to keep favored Forbidden Kingdom in range, got the better of that horse, then couldn’t finish with Taiba late. Others might do the dirty work for him this time around. Zandon weaved his way through traffic to win the Blue Grass, and that experience should serve him well in this big and bulky field. He’ll be running in the stretch. It will be interesting to see if Summer Is Tomorrow, the UAE Derby pacesetter, is fast enough to make the lead in this field. :: Get free past performances for the Kentucky Derby as part of DRF’s Race of the Day Mike Welsch 1. Simplification 2. Zandon 3. Crown Pride 4. Cyberknife Although there will likely be two clear-cut favorites in the wagering for this year’s Run for the Roses, the Kentucky Derby appears, from a handicapping standpoint, to be anything but a two-horse race. There is little seemingly separating at least a half-dozen or more in this year’s lineup based on Beyer Speed Figures, and so many are giving off positive vibes during training hours, an indication they are all on top of their game. With that in mind and certainly a bit of a bias toward impressions gleaned from recent workouts, why not look for some value and give SIMPLIFICATION a shot of springing what would be considered a major upset? The Fountain of Youth winner, he ran a sneaky good third in the Florida Derby when under the gun for much of the race, readily disposing of the other early pace players, including Classic Causeway, before succumbing grudgingly in the final furlong while pinned down on what was arguably the deeper footing along the rail. He has since posted three eye-catching works. He galloped out a mile, without any encouragement whatsoever, in 1:37 and 1:38 and change in the last two, indicating 1 1/4 miles should not be an issue. He will have to harness some of that natural speed and hopefully work out a trip similar to his runaway Fountain of Youth victory. Nobody has caught the eye more during training hours – both in his final work at Keeneland or since arriving at Churchill – than ZANDON. He moved to the upper echelon of the division with an impressive last-to-first triumph in the Blue Grass while also giving off every sign he could be poised to move forward with an even better effort in the Derby. Value is the key when looking at CROWN PRIDE and CYBERKNIFE, both of whom couldn’t be training better and figure to go postward at double-digit odds. Crown Pride won the UAE Derby despite being hung wide throughout, and has been a bundle of energy since arriving at Churchill. He turned in two extremely impressive works just three days apart a little more than a week ago and has continued to exude positive vibes. Cyberknife’s last two breezes are among the best of any Derby contender, and he’s a horse whose stock has continued to rise during his 3-year-old campaign. Epicenter also has looked very solid in the morning since his easy and well-graded victory in the Louisiana Derby. The only knock on him is he’s going to be a relatively short price in a very competitive lineup. His inside draw makes the break a real key for his success.