LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Non-racing fans may argue otherwise, but nothing says “return to normalcy” louder than a Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. For the first time in a glorious history dating to 1875, the Derby was run in September last year, postponed four months as one of countless victims of a raging pandemic. Its return to the traditional date is welcome evidence that the coronavirus craziness is waning, and although Churchill Downs will be roughly half full Saturday for the 147th Run for the Roses, sports fans are collectively giddy about being in the final furlongs of this nightmarish run. For one set of connections, this Derby will have a particularly euphoric ending. The odds say the blue silks of Godolphin, the iconic racing stable of Sheikh Mohammed al-Maktoum, will be in the infield winner’s circle shortly after 7 p.m. Eastern, courtesy of Essential Quality, the 2-1 morning-line favorite. Multiple storylines stem from the men most closely involved with the unbeaten colt – Brad Cox, the ascendant, self-made horseman who was voted the 2020 Eclipse Award for outstanding trainer, is trying to become the first Louisville-born trainer to win the Derby, while jockey Luis Saez, who suffered the gross indignity of having an apparent Derby victory taken from him when Maximum Security was disqualified two years ago, is seeking redemption in a most dramatic way. “It’s every trainer’s dream to win the Kentucky Derby, whether you’re from here in town or not,” said Cox. “It’d be an unbelievable feeling and quite an honor to win, I’m sure.” As always, the Derby will be run before a live international television audience, with NBC providing in-depth coverage starting at 2:30 p.m. Actual post time has been set for 6:57. Whereas ontrack Derby crowds over the last decade or so were around 160,000, the estimate for Saturday is for slightly less than half of that, with social-distancing protocols requiring half-empty seating areas and the infield being reduced to about one-third of the usual throng. The weather is supposed to be perfect, with sunny skies, low humidity, and a high temperature of 73 in the forecast. Essential Quality, by Tapit, will break from post 14 in the contiguous 20-stall starting gate, though the field was reduced to 19 when King Fury was scratched after spiking a temperature Friday. Essential Quality looks to become just the third reigning 2-year-old champion in more than 40 years to win the 1 1/4-mile Derby, following Street Sense (2007) and Nyquist (2016). Although the gun-metal gray colt was near the pace throughout his most recent victory in the April 3 Blue Grass at Keeneland, his more typical running style is from off the pace, such as in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall. With plenty of opposing speed signed on here, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect him and Saez to settle somewhere in the middle of the pack as the field winds its way to the Churchill backstretch. Of course, even as flawless as he’s been in winning all five starts, Essential Quality is vulnerable, if for no other reason than this is the Derby, a race in which much heavier favorites such as Native Dancer (1953), Honest Pleasure (1976), Arazi (1992), and Tiz the Law (2020) all went down to bitter defeat. Capable opponents such as Rock Your World, Known Agenda, Hot Rod Charlie and a few more are being given solid chances at a mild upset, while the longest shots in this bulky field will try to emulate the kind of stunner pulled in recent years by the likes of Giacomo (2005), Mine That Bird (2009), and Country House (2019). :: Get Kentucky Derby Betting Strategies for exclusive wager recommendations, contender profiles, pedigree analysis, and more Rock Your World (post 15, Joel Rosario) is one of three unbeatens in a deep cast, along with Essential Quality and longshot Helium (post 12, Julien Leparoux). Rock Your World is the presumed front-runner in the absence of Caddo River, who defected last weekend. Trained by John Sadler, Rock Your World burst onto the scene in the April 3 Santa Anita Derby by winning his first start on dirt after twice winning on turf. “He’s bred to run on both surfaces,” said Sadler. “We started him out on grass, thinking it’d be a little easier route to go. When we tried the Santa Anita Derby, we thought if he could run well in that we could go on. Obviously he took that step very nicely, so here we are. We believe he can run on any surface.” Known Agenda (post 1, Irad Ortiz Jr.), winner of the March 27 Florida Derby, will try to become the first Derby winner to leave from the inside post since Ferdinand in 1986. The one-hole has become something of a Derby bugaboo, with a number of very difficult trips having resulted from all the traffic and crowding a rail-drawn horse is apt to encounter. “You do risk the potential of getting shuffled way back,” said Pletcher, who has netted two Derby winners, Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017), from a record 55 previous starters. In the Florida Derby, Known Agenda “was inside when he got up into the first turn and backside,” Pletcher said. “He was able to advance and improve his position and showed he can handle being inside, so I was happy with that.” Ortiz, riding in his fifth Derby, is the hottest jockey of recent times. He was voted the Eclipse the last three years (2018-20) and once again is leading the national standings in wins and earnings in 2021. :: Get DRF Clocker Reports for the Kentucky Derby and Oaks cards to access exclusive insights from morning training Hot Rod Charlie (post 9, Flavien Prat), the BC Juvenile runner-up at 94-1, progressed beautifully through the winter, racing once at his Santa Anita home base before winning the March 20 Louisiana Derby. “Adding blinkers helped him apply himself, plus going two turns has been huge for him,” said Doug O’Neill, a two-time Derby winner with I’ll Have Another (2012) and Nyquist. “He’s got a lot of stamina in his pedigree and he’s been running to his true ability.” Beyond the core of favorites, there are numerous fringe players, including Mandaloun (post 7, Florent Geroux), a second Cox trainee looking to rebound off a subpar effort as the Louisiana Derby favorite; Highly Motivated (post 16), trying to win a first Derby for jockey Javier Castellano and trainer Chad Brown, each of them four-time Eclipse champions in their respective categories; and the Steve Asmussen pair of Midnight Bourbon (post 10, Mike Smith), a steady performer all winter in Louisiana, and Super Stock (post 17, Ricardo Santana Jr.), a perfect-trip winner of the Arkansas Derby. The Pletcher pair of Bourbonic (post 19, Kendrick Carmouche) and Dynamic One (post 11, Jose Ortiz), the respective one-two finishers in the April 3 Wood Memorial, also deserve a long look. Bob Baffert, who equaled the record for most Derby wins, six, by a trainer by winning with Authentic last September, had a handful of hopefuls fall by the wayside as the Derby trail unfolded this winter and spring. He’s left with Medina Spirit (post 8, John Velazquez) as his lone starter in his first attempt to break the tie with the legendary Ben A. Jones. One of six horses pegged at 50-1 is Hidden Stash (post 13, Rafael Bejarano), whose trainer, Vicki Oliver, will become the 17th female trainer with a Derby starter. The best finish in that category was by Casual Lies, second for Shelly Riley in 1992, while the most recent was by Bolo, 12th for Carla Gaines in 2015. :: DRF's Kentucky Derby Headquarters: Contenders, latest news, past performances, analysis, and more With a $3 million purse, the Derby winner’s share will be $1,860,000, assuming all 20 start. As of this year, Lasix treatment is no longer allowed in graded stakes in Kentucky, including the Derby. All qualifying preps also were run Lasix-free. First post Saturday is 10:30 a.m. The Derby is the 12th of 14 races, with the 14th race going under the lights at 8:30 p.m. Six other graded stakes are part of the 10-hour extravaganza, including three other Grade 1 events. Travis Stone will call the Derby for the ontrack crowd and simulcast watchers, while Larry Collmus calls it for the 11th year for NBC. :: Access DRF Past Performances for Saturday's Kentucky Derby card at Churchill Downs