This I know for certain after the final round of American Kentucky Derby preps: Santa Anita Derby winner Justify is at least five lengths faster than the winners of the other races. If this was Big Brown or California Chrome’s year, I would pronounce Justify a cinch. However, the other final prep winners are pretty consistent. Not super fast, but consistent. And UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn is an absolute cause for concern. Going back to the Louisiana Derby, I have analyzed seven final Derby preps from a Beyer-figure standpoint, including that amazing performance in Dubai. Justify earned a 107 in the Santa Anita Derby. Yes, Justify had a tactical advantage, but I looked at his performance this way: a colt making his third lifetime start ran away from three-time graded stakes winner Bolt d’Oro, easily the most accomplished colt in this crop. Justify has now posted a 104, 101 and 107 series heading for Kentucky. Many will be looking for reasons to beat Justify. I won’t be among them. :: Kentucky Derby advance PPs are now available! Mendelssohn won the UAE Derby at Meydan by 18 3/4 lengths. There was no form to help with that race specifically, but there was enough American dirt form in the World Cup to make a UAE Derby Beyer and be confident in its accuracy. We gave the race a 106. The UAE Derby was 1 3/16 miles, and the World Cup was 1 1/4 miles. We have charts that explain the relationship between times at those distances. “In the World Cup, the horses that ran 2-3-4-5 were all U.S. horses and we knew what their figures were like,’’ Andrew Beyer said. Thunder Snow won it, followed by West Coast, Mubtaahij, Pavel, and Forever Unbridled. “Clearly, West Coast did not run his best race to be beaten so soundly,’’ Beyer said. “Mubtaahij, Pavel, and Forever Unbridled finished pretty much in a pack and their figures were all between 99 and 102. This was a race we could project. You could look to those three horses and know within a point or two what they were expected to run. Based on them, we came up with a figure for the winner. We could feel pretty confident Thunder Snow’s winning figure was a 111.’’ The World Cup time was then compared to the UAE Derby’s time. Beyer team member Randy Moss and Beyer himself looked at the data independently and came to the same conclusion on the UAE Derby. Thunder Snow’s time was going to equate to five points faster than Mendelssohn’s. Thus, the 106. ``We would never have published this figure if we were shaky about it,’’ Beyer said. Is there a chance the UAE Derby was a one off? Yes. Mendelssohn had never done anything close to that before. The colt got an 86 in his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf win. It’s also possible this colt was just waiting to get on a dirt track. If he was trained by somebody other than Aidan O’Brien, I would still be skeptical. But you know O’Brien has thought this through and has a plan. Mendelssohn is a definite contender. Audible, with two 99 Beyers in 2018, dominated the Holy Bull by running near the pace and was visually dazzling when he came from far back to win the Florida Derby, so he may have another Beyer jump in him. I think this colt is better at this stage than 2017 Derby winner Always Dreaming. But Always Dreaming ran against a much weaker group. Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon is unbeaten in four starts. None of the races has been close. He has posted a 95, 88, 97, 98 series, with the best Beyer coming in the Arkansas Derby. I love how this colt runs and really appreciate how competitive he is. I doubt, however, that he is ready for another forward Beyer move. I think we know Magnum Moon’s quality and his limitations. Vino Rosso got a 98 in his Wood Memorial win after an 80, 70, 90, 85 series. It is definitely possible this was a significant 3-year-old move forward that we often see in early spring. If the colt has just improved that much, it makes him a contender to be part of the superfecta. Good Magic got a 95 in his Blue Grass win. I was unimpressed. I think he peaked with that 100 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when he ran like a very serious horse. His other three races produced Beyers of 82, 89 and 89. And that fire he showed at Del Mar has been absent in his two 2018 races. When he made his move in the Blue Grass, I thought Good Magic was going to run away from the field. Did not happen and I don’t think he is going to go any better in the Derby. Noble Indy got a 95 in his Louisiana Derby win which followed a 77, 84 and 91 series. So the colt’s Beyers keep rising, but he would have to make another significant jump at Churchill just to hit the board. I liked my 40-1 on Justify when the bet was made in late February. I obviously like it now that Justify is going to be the Derby favorite. I would like it even more if Mendelssohn would miss his flight to Kentucky.