Keep these thoughts in mind as you are evaluating the Beyer Speed Figures for the Breeders’ Cup horses: What BSF is it going to take to win the race, what horses are capable of it, what horses are most likely because of current form/race shape/workouts to produce a winning BSF. The Juvenile Fillies is fascinating because the filly with the best BSF is Donna Veloce, who earned a 91 in her only start. If the others were as fast or faster than Donna Veloce, you would be justified in being very skeptical of her going from 6 1/2 furlongs to a mile and a sixteenth and reproducing that number. But the next best BSF is the 87 Wicked Whisper got when winning the Frizette. Bast, who is likely to be favored, got an 81 and an 85 in her last two starts, both stakes wins. British Idiom got an 84 in her Alcibiades win. So the fillies with résumés are not that fast and in the cases of Wicked Whisper and British Idiom have just two races, not much more experience than Donna Veloce. In this circumstance, I give Donna Veloce a decent chance to come back to that 91, a BSF that may be good enough to win. Dennis’ Moment is one of only two horses in the Juvenile that has hit 90 on the BSF scale and he has done it twice, first when winning his maiden (97) and then when winning the Iroquois (90). It does not take a genius to watch this colt run and see his unmistakable talent. My suspicion is that it won’t take long for him to hit triple digits, perhaps even by Friday, and it could take a 100 or more to win. Eight Rings got a 94 in his debut and then came back with an 87 in his American Pharoah win. This colt looks very capable of a 95 or better. Scabbard improved seven points from his debut and then nine points when second to Dennis’ Moment at Churchill Downs after a momentum-stopping trip. It would be no surprise if he gets well into the 90s. If it indeed takes a 100 to win the Juvenile, Dennis’ Moment is absolutely the most likely to get there. There is only one horse in the Filly and Mare Sprint that has recently put up a giant BSF for the division – Covfefe. She had that 107 in the Miss Preakness and another 107 in the Dogwood. If she runs that figure again, the others are likely running for second. Love that she had seven weeks between her win in the Test, when she had to run every step and has six weeks from the Dogwood to this. The 1 post, however, is scary, with confirmed front-runner Danuska’s My Girl next door and Selcourt farther out. How the race is run will have a major impact on the Beyer it takes to win. Come Dancing is obviously the danger, with the 102-114-103 series that stretched from December to May. Since then, it has been 97-96-98. I think she is more likely to run in the recent range. The others just look too slow, unless, of course, there is meltdown Then, anything is possible. The Dirt Mile is fascinating. The horse with the best BSF is very likely to be slightly overlooked in the betting because, a) Omaha Beach is a very popular and talented colt, and b) many will be skeptical of the 110 Spun to Run got winning a stakes at Parx. It is interesting that three of the year’s four best 3-year-old BSF were earned at Parx. I have nothing against Omaha Beach, but his best Beyer, a 103 in his comeback race, is not going to be good enough and he will be underlaid. That said, Omaha Beach can win because his trainer, Richard Mandella, is that good and the colt could improve that much. Do not be skeptical of the 110, the year’s best two-turn Beyer by a 3-year-old. It is legit, but can Spun to Run do it again? Watch the replay of the Oct. 12 race. It was easy. The price will be right to find out if the colt can run back to that 110, which has been twice confirmed by two next-out winners from that Parx race. Coal Front has some big back numbers (104, 107, 102), but they are from 2017 and 2018. Improbable has that 104 from two races back, but do you trust him? Mr. Money is very consistent, but simply not fast enough, with his recent 99-100-99-98 series during his 3-year-old stakes tour. I am thinking it is going to take around a 108-110 to win the Sprint. Imperial Hint, with consecutive 109s in 2017 and his 114 when breaking the six-furlong track record on July 27, is obviously capable. Mitole has been between 105 and 108 five times. Shancelot got that otherworldly 121 at Saratoga. The trip is going to be key here. If Shancelot is loose and gets away from the stalkers, he can win. If the pace is contested and neither Imperial Hint nor Mitole is doing the contesting, I will be very surprised if one of them does not win. The post draw really helped Imperial Hint, who is best when running a few lengths off the pace, in the clear, and on the outside. Midnight Bisou is an outlier. She just runs fast enough to win. In her perfect season, she has won with BSF of 91, 91, and 92. That won’t do in the Distaff, but any of her four triple-digit Beyers almost certainly will be good enough. The others are just not very fast. McKinzie is the midst of a 109-107-111-108 series. Any of those BSF could be good enough to win the Classic in a year with no really fast horses. But there are horses that can run in that range so McKinzie is no cinich. Code of Honor is the classic improving 3-year-old, with 105 and 106 in his last two. A minor step forward may get him there. If Higher Power comes back to his 107 in the Pacific Classic, that could win. Vino Rosso has a 105 at Santa Anita and a 106 at Belmont. He is a contender. Mongolian Groom’s 110 when upsetting McKinzie certainly looks like an outlier, but what if he gets loose on the lead again in a race without much pace. Very tough race, with McKinzie as the most likely winner, but too many unknowns to feel terribly confident about any prediction.