Making the Beyer Speed Figures, as most readers surely understand, is not an exact science. Sometimes we will encounter ambiguous circumstances on a day’s card, resolve them a week or two later, and recalculate the races. Sometimes we will belatedly discover an error in a published race time and change the speed figure accordingly. We do not apologize for correcting numbers that have already appeared in print. We want readers to have the best possible information at all times. But in more than 30 years with Daily Racing Form, we have rarely made a change so radical, under circumstances so inexplicable, as the one which affects Monday’s Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga.  The 2-year-old Valentine Candy, one of the 11 entrants in the Hopeful, made a winning debut at Saratoga on July 22, running six furlongs in 1:11.74. Although the field was filled with expensive, promising first-time starters, the final time was unimpressive, and the victorious Valentine Candy earned a moderate speed figure of 66 — well below the norm for races of this type at the Spa. In our calculations, the inherent speed of the racing strip was consistent through the card, so there was no reason to second-guess our figure of 66. :: Visit the Saratoga Handicapping Store for Past Performances, Clocker Reports, Picks, Betting Strategies, and more. And then horses from the July 22 race began to make their second career starts. Dancing Groom, who had earned a figure of 46 in his debut, came back to win by five lengths with a figure of 72. Daily Grind and World Fair were also-rans in both of their first two starts, but each increased his figure by more than 35 points in the second outing. Seeing these results, Saratoga racing analyst Andy Serling pointed out that the July 22 figure was much too low. I scoffed. Two-year-olds frequently improve in their second starts, and there had been no indication that the racing surface had changed during the day. I ceased making these arguments after the seventh race at Saratoga on Friday. Two horses who had run behind Valentine Candy were in the field of maidens: General Partner (figure of 60) and Dive Bomber (figure of 59.) General Partner ran brilliantly, beating Dive Bomber by four lengths, and they earned figures of 92 and 83, respectively. These performances clinched the case that the July 27 figure was too low. But what caused the slow time? Our colleague Randy Moss timed the race, and confirmed that 1:11.74 was correct. I asked Glen Kozak, who is in charge of maintenance at New York Racing Association tracks, if there had any change in track maintenance before the Valentine Candy race. Kozak checked his records. “In that race, and every race leading up to it, we harrowed and watered the track as we always do.” We have no explanation for the slowness of the race, but we do know now that the low figure will only serve to mislead readers and bettors. My partner Mark Hopkins considered all the evidence and decided to change Valentine Candy’s winning figure from 66 to 85, elevating all of the horses in the field by by 19 points, better reflecting the ability of the horses who had already run back and improved.  When past performances for the Hopeful were originally published in Monday's print edition, Valentine Candy looked hopelessly overmatched against a field that includes the California invader Muth, who owns a figure of 93.  But if Valentine Candy can improve as sharply as some of the colts he defeated in his maiden win, he is now a contender. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.