Less than a week ago the Hambletonian picture was clear. Karl was the presumptive champion waiting to be crowned and a few others were perhaps capable of an upset given the optimal set of circumstances. Then we watched a pair of Stanley Dancer Memorial races and everything changed . . . or did it? Like David Copperfield performing illusions to amaze his audience, I will equally astound even the most devout harness racing followers without using slight-of-hand or trickery. Instead, I will present undeniable facts as it relates to the Stanley Dancer – the presumptive stepping stone to the Hambletonian – and what it means as a determining factor for the winner of arguably the most important Standardbred race in North America. The most compelling numbers are 14 and 2016. The first figure is the number of consecutive Dancer winners who did not go on to win the Hambletonian, either because they weren't eligible or because they failed. Meanwhile, 2016 points to the year of the last Dancer winner – Marion Marauder – that was able to capture the Hambletonian. Pinkman (2015) was the only other Dancer winner to win the trotting classic in the last decade. While the numbers themselves are striking, consider some of the horses who won the Dancer only to taste defeat on Hambletonian Day, or fail to even make the final: Father Patrick (2014); Southwind Frank (2016); Six Pack (2018); and Greenshoe (2019). The most recent Hambletonian winner Tactical Approach was third in the Dancer and 2021 winner Captain Corey finished second, so perhaps a good but not great showing in the Dancer allows for a peak effort in the Hambletonian. Looking to buck the trend in 2024 are Dancer winners Sig Sauer and Situationship. Both horses had credentials from 2023 but neither was sitting at the top of anyone's "Road to the Hambletonian" list. The stock of each vaulted upwards after Saturday's (7-13) wins, especially Sig Sauer. Driven by Andrew McCarthy, Sig Sauer sat fifth through a contested opening half of 55 2/5 in the Dancer as 1-9 favorite Karl had to work hard to get the front. The son of Muscle Hill was guided second-over by McCarthy and the pair surged nearing the wire as part of a sizzling 26 1/5 final quarter to win by a head in a stakes-record-equaling 1:50. "I don't think the other horse [Karl] was quite as good [as he has been] but we were a little better than I thought," said Sig Sauer's trainer Noel Daley, who explained the rapid improvement. "He was touching his elbow in his qualifier and his first start, and I don't think he was really trying because he was hitting himself. The blacksmith changed the shoes on him and he was good." Daley said much of Sig Sauer's schedule has been the result of strategy on his part because of how the colt raced in 2023 as well as how good some of his foes looked in the early going. "I had this horse ready to go for the Sire Stakes [in May] but when they [other horses] came out and qualified in 1:52 I decided to wait and just qualify him a few times because I knew I couldn't have him ready and keep him going, though he is very sound right now," said Daley. "He won his first four last year and came up lame in his fifth one, so we were trying to make his fourth start in the Hambletonian." Tony Adams S was second behind Sig Sauer, and he is not eligible for the Hambletonian but obviously third-place finisher Karl is very much pointed to that August 3 race at the Meadowlands. To say that his Dancer trip was eventful is an understatement, and I agree with driver Yannick Gingras' assessment that he didn't put in a great drive. After floating away off the gate and getting away near the back, the smart move was to settle for a tuck in sixth and give Karl a few moments to relax before making any bid for the front. Instead, Karl was pushed along by Gingras to the front with a 27 1/5 second quarter followed by another 27 3/5 third quarter. In the end a 1:22 1/5 final three-quarters was too much for the formerly unbeaten-in-2024 colt to handle. By the same token, I can't get on Gingras too much because Karl has given him every reason to believe he was close to unbeatable this year. I'd also argue that the loss was a good thing as we got to see his bottom and now Gingras has more perspective on what the son of Tactical Landing is capable of on Hambletonian Day. "In hindsight after a night of sleep – I got up and talked to [trainer] Nancy [Takter] about it – I think it was the best thing for him. He's never once been tired in his life. It's not like they train them to be exhausted. He lost once before that in his career and the [ear] plugs were still in because he got a little bit bumpy, but he wasn't tired that day either," said Gingras. "Any athlete, you train to push your limits. He has a great attitude and he's not sour at all. I think him getting tired and beat will only make him stronger. I think this will move him forward. Of course, next time I would like to make it easier on him. That is my job. "What I'm most happy about is how good he was gait-wise. I could've raced him from the back. Even in the last turn, he was as good as he's been this year." On the topic of Karl's gait, something very noticeable on the simulcast feed was Gingras constantly looking under his charge's legs while scoring down prior to the Dancer. It was also clear that Karl hit a couple of pylons coming around the final turn. "They changed shoes on him to what he was using last year, but I didn't feel like I was looking down. If you saw it I'm sure it happened, but I was really happy with how he felt," said Gingras, who joked that hitting the pylons was just him trying to "save some racetrack." ► Sign up for our FREE DRF Harness Digest Newsletter Dame Good Time and Security Protected finished fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Dancer and both showed enough to warrant entry into the Hambletonian eliminations on July 27 at the Meadowlands. The former made a brush to the front nearing the half and put in a credible mile to lose by less than three lengths, while the latter had the early lead before getting shuffled and finding some stretch traffic. Circling back to Situationship, who made two moves to the front and was all out to hold off Caballero in 1:51 1/5, the gelded son of Chapter Seven did nothing to make anyone think less of him, though he'll certainly need to find more if he wants to win the Hambletonian. I'm much more bullish on Caballero, who closed in 26 3/5 after a ground-saving trip. A son of Tactical Landing like Karl, he clearly appears to have some ability. Trainer Trond Smedshammer says his chances on Hambletonian Day may be directly related to the trip. "I wouldn't say I'm expecting to win it, but it is an open race and he's getting better and better," said Smedshammer, who added that in his mind Karl is still the horse to beat. "[Caballero] is not the handiest horse. He has problems moving lanes and going forward. "If he can get a trip like Tactical Approach last year and he can go straight the entire mile, he can catch them all, no question about it." Coming off an historic year in terms of earnings as a 2-year-old, T C I was expected to be Karl's top competition entering 2024. He began the year well enough with a trio of workmanlike wins but then broke in the Zweig at Vernon and was simply a flat third after taking aim first-over in his elimination. "The performance was ok," said trainer Ron Burke on T C I's mile. "When I warmed him up I wasn't blown away. Usually when they warm up I have a good feel for them and he was just ok." Can T C I return to the form he displayed last year and peak for the Hambletonian? "We'll pull blood, I'll take him to the vet and make sure he is alright that way. If nothing is there, maybe I'll train him a little harder and be tougher on him that way. It's all about the next two weeks coming up and having him sharp for that," said Burke. "I have all the faith in this horse. I've learned. I lost a lot of these Hambos and I've figured it out. I know what I want to do." Perhaps the most disappointing of the upper-level Hambletonian hopefuls was Highland Kismet. On a four-race winning streak entering the Dancer, much was expected and he just simply didn't deliver, starting the mile a few lengths off the gate and never getting involved. Those taking a positive view can point to his 26 3/5 final quarter and the fact that he gained three lengths late in the mile. "I only had a brief conversation with [driver] Bobby [McClure] and he said it was his fault," said Etsell about his horse being off the gate. "I schooled him and qualified him and he was right on the gate both times, so that is a discussion I have to have with Bob. Maybe something needs a little tweaking. "He's a big kid and there was a lot of stuff going on there Saturday with the food trucks and the banners. The banners and the signage on the inside of the track by the toteboard is what got him the most. When I warmed him up he was really shying away from that and not staying focused. It is a different atmosphere at the Meadowlands than Mohawk where it is really open with grass. There isn't a wall down the backstretch like at the Meadowlands. I'm not making excuses but I think he was a little overwhelmed with what was going on. "I was a little disappointed but we accomplished what we wanted to do, for him to get a feel for the place," concluded Etsell. For his part the trainer said he believes that Highland Kismet has more left in the tank, and he echoed comments from others I spoke to about the possibility of seeing the first-ever sub 1:50 Hambletonian mile. "I think [1:]49 and change is going to be the bar," said the trainer. In the big picture for the Hambletonian, it is certainly possible that Karl's defeat may have changed the minds of a couple of people who were on the fence about entering the race. Quickly eyeballing the 104 eligibles to the race, I came up with 16 I feel confident will drop in the box, which would make me think the final number will be somewhere between 18 and 22. That said, Spaaaanzano wasn't one of my 16 and he shows up in Saturday's Tompkins-Geers at the Meadowlands, along with some other Hambletonian hopefuls in Big Ben Pellini S, Secret Agent Man and Bright Star, so maybe that number will grow. From a wagering perspective, the ideal number is probably 27, leaving three fields of nine with the top three finishers in each elimination guaranteed a spot on the gate in the $1,000,000 final. We'll know the number of entrants on July 23 and the finalists on the 27th. Until then we are left to wonder what the 99th Hambletonian has in store for us in terms of storylines, drama and results. The one constant from almost every person I contacted was that Karl remains the horse to beat. I agree. Meadowlands Pace Night winners and losers Despite finishing third, Date Night Hanover upped her Hambletonian Oaks profile in my eyes with a very noticeable 26-second final quarter from an impossible spot in her Del Miller division. She had previously won the Zweig Filly at Vernon and looks like a serious contender. Out of that same Del Miller split, Buy A Round was disappointing. Yes, she came home in 26 4/5, but off a cover trip you have to roll by your escort in the stretch. In the first division of the Del Miller, Soiree Hanover stepped up with a much-improved performance to be second despite a first-over trip. She's primed to move forward again in start three of the year on July 27. The first Jerry Silverman division saw Asweetbeachhere lacking racing room and perhaps one to watch next time while Pass Line's stock dropped some when she stopped after some tough fractions. Perhaps there was something easily fixable wrong. The second Silverman was more proof that It's A Love Thing is the best 3-year-old pacing filly right now while also a small sign that maybe Geocentric is ready to step back up. Twin B Joe Fresh got my vote this week as the top horse in the sport after she bravely fought off an all-out attack from Sylvia Hanover and got a 1:47 3/5 victory in the Dorothy Haughton. I'm at the point where it would be interesting to see her tackle the boys. Voukefalas only finished second behind Abuckabett Hanover in the William Haughton but in doing so he showed that his Graduate victory was no fluke. How many horses can brush early in a 53 3/5 half and win this division? That he lost by less than a length to a horse with good cover was impressive. It seems as though we may not be looking at a division where the 3-year-old male pacer with the best trip will win and one where the best horse on that night will get top honors. Or maybe Legendary Hanover is simply the best. Will find out more over the next four to six weeks. Finally, in some ways a small loser but a very big winner in many others is Crawford Farms. Yes, their Karl did suffer his first loss of the year, but the farm bred two winners on the card and saw its Crazy Wow as the winning sire of the Hambletonian Maturity.