Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:52 p.m. (ET)   Lem Me Drink (#8) might go favored here after finishing second at this level last time, even though she was defeated by a massive longshot with inferior form. Lem Me Drink is just 1 for 22 in her career, but she spent much of that time racing on turf, a surface over which she is 0 for 14. She switched back to dirt last fall and hasn't finished worse than fourth in any of those spots. She encountered some traffic when finishing third at this level in November and bettered that result last time. She makes plenty of sense, but she doesn’t figure to be much of a price given her exposed form.   Her main rival might be Focus Pocus (#5) if she can recapture the form that carried her to a 12-length maiden score going this distance last November. She got comfortable on the front end that day and was able to sneak away from that overmatched group. I won't hold her next start against her since she was facing a much tougher field of starter allowance foes, yet she has been very disappointing in two starts since, including when dropped back into claiming company last time. Perhaps failing to make the lead on both occasions was her downfall, and last time her jockey strangely didn't even attempt to get her forward. Now she gets a switch to the typically aggressive Ruben Silvera and should be quick enough to make the lead against this field, dropping down to the lowest claiming tag of her career.   Montauk Mystique (#9) is one alternative option, since she does appear to be in some of the best form of her career. She finally won a maiden race in her 16th attempt two back, and she was just spotted a bit too ambitiously against $25,000 conditioned claimers when she tried winners last time. She fits better against this group and should appreciate drawing outside of other speed. My top pick is Mia Nipotina (#6), who has a similar profile, having just won a maiden race in the 18th start of her career. She's tried winners twice since then, to no avail. Yet she was facing slightly tougher fields each time going shorter than this. While she has only tried a dirt route once in her career without success, that was much earlier in her career and her jockey gave her an oddly conservative ride that day. She's a strong finisher going shorter, and I think she deserves another chance stretching out to this one-turn mile distance. It's pretty hard to find positive trainer stats for Rachel Sells in Formulator, but one of the few good angles for her is this very move. Sells is 14 for 83 (17%, $3.68 ROI) going from sprints to routes on dirt with non-maidens over the past 5 years.