Notebook topics this week include an unlikely new hot jockey at Del Mar, a California exodus by a prominent breeder, Breeders’ Cup Classic odds, and a pair of Grade 1 turf races to be run over uncertain ground. Time to dive in. Berrios and family riding high Champion rider in Chile and Florida-based since 2018, Hector Berrios is the surprise of the Del Mar summer meet. In a raucous winner’s circle after Berrios rode Blue Stripe in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch, the festivities included a touching display by the winning rider. Surrounded by Blue Stripe celebrants, including trainer Marcelo Polanco, Berrios paused, bent over, and planted heartfelt kisses on his 8-year-old son, Isaac, and 6-year-old daughter, Amelia. Hector and Steffani Berrios, married 14 years ago in Chile, may have found a new life in California. “We are very thankful,” Steffani Berrios said. “I am very happy,” Hector Berrios said. “Now, I am here.” The plan, for now, is to stay. Berrios entered the week 5 for 18 with two stakes wins, and horsemen are taking notice. Business is about to mushroom for Berrios. His agent, Michael Burns, said trainers have inquired on the rider’s availability for the Grade 2 Yellow Ribbon on Saturday and Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks on Aug. 20. Berrios, who is 35, is named on five runners Friday, including top contender Court Snort in race 1. (Just a quirky aside – in four of Berrios’s five wins, the runner-up jockey was Umberto Rispoli, the meet’s leading turf rider.) :: DRF's Del Mar headquarters – Stakes schedule, previews, recaps, past performances, and more Breeders move mares to Kentucky California owner-breeders Kevin and Kim Nish (KMN Racing), whose 2-year-old colt Straighten Up starts Friday in the Graduation Stakes at Del Mar, have relocated their select band of seven broodmares to Kentucky. Those include No Better Terms, dam of Straighten Up and two stake winners; Maddie’s Odyssey, dam of four stakes winners; and Sneaking Out, a graded winner whose weanling filly by McKinzie is photogenically stunning. Why the exodus from California? “We moved our residence to Florida, and we believe our mares are good enough to be bred in Kentucky,” Kevin Nish explained. “There is still a possibility some may shuttle [to California]. We have specifically de-emphasized California.” Stakes winners bred in California by KMN include I’m So Anna, Smuggler’s Run, Been Studying Her, Grecian Fire, and Stealthediamonds. Straighten Up has more to give Mike Smith rides Straighten Up for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer in the Graduation, as he stretches from a five-furlong debut win to 5 1/2 furlongs. His lead diminished in deep stretch first out, but Smith believes the colt had more in the tank. “He has a little play in him,” Smith said Saturday before Straighten Up worked a blazing half-mile in 46 seconds. “He kind of looks around a little.” Referring to the colt’s debut, Smith said that when another horse came alongside after the wire, Straighten Out “jumped into it.” “He wasn’t going to let him pass,” Smith said. “A lot of horses are like that. They play cat-and-mouse in the field. It comes naturally to them.” Naturally fast, naturally competitive. ‘All-others’ worth shot at 23-1 Anyone else surprised at the high 23-1 closing price for “all others” in the Breeders’ Cup Classic Future Wager? Sure, the eventual winner probably was individually listed, which means “all others” probably will be a loser. But change will occur between now and the Nov. 4-5 Breeders’ Cup. This bettor estimated the chance of a non-listed horse winning the Classic in the 12-1 to 15-1 range, therefore “all others” at 23-1 represents an overlay. To be clear, this is not about handicapping. It is about potential unpredictability. One never knows when an anonymous import or a crazy winner like Rich Strike might come along. Short prices on Flightline Flightline closed just short of 5-2 as the BC Classic Future Wager favorite. The price seems low three months out, with the 1 1/4-mile Pacific Classic yet to be run. Flightline is expected to start Sept. 3 in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Fooling with an early odds line, I settled on 3-5 as opening price for Flightline. Country Grammer is second choice at 4-1, and Royal Ship 5-1. Express Train is 12-1 on an early line. His trainer, John Shirreffs said “We’re hoping to make the Pacific Classic.” Tizamagician is 15-1, Stilleto Boy 20-1. The line is preliminary, the above are not all confirmed. And, also, Flightline might be a cinch. Whitney flatters Flightline On the topic of the early BC Classic favorite, Flightline was flattered by the Whitney Stakes on Aug. 6 at Saratoga. Flightline defeated Happy Saver by six lengths in the Met Mile in June; Life Is Good defeated Happy Saver by two lengths in the Whitney. That does not mean Flightline is four lengths superior to Life Is Good (difference in margin of victory over Happy Saver). It merely flatters Flightline, nothing more, nothing less. Circle Sept. 3 on your calendar The next mandatory payout in the Del Mar pick six is Sept. 3, when effective takeout will be manageable again due to the jackpot and forceout. The meet’s first mandatory payout was Aug. 6; winning payoffs totaled more than $3.5 million from new money of $3.9 million. Put another way, effective takeout was less than 9 percent. Assuming the Sept. 3 pick six sequence includes the Pacific Classic, it might be more like a pick five, right? Turf course uncertainty Imagine what jockeys will be thinking Saturday at Churchill Downs before the Arlington Million and Beverly D. are run on a turf course that has not been used for racing in two months. Uncertainty about footing is one reason the races will be on separate parts of the course. Two other scheduled turf stakes were scrapped. A question floating around: Will jockeys play safer than normal and ride defensively on delicate footing? If so, how might tactics influence the outcome? Perhaps the Million will be won by a bold front-runner/presser such as Smooth Like Strait, Megacity, or Cavalry Charge. Cavalry Charge to the wire The implied generalization in the preceding graph – front-runners do well on footing less than firm or fast – needs clarity. The idea speed can be more effective on uncertain going is only part true. Horses that produce speed and win on wet surfaces often are those that handle the surface and are forwardly placed as a result. Horses uncomfortable on the going spin their wheels and go nowhere. It can be difficult to identify a horse that is sure to handle a particular course. Smooth Like Strait can set the pace and run well at Churchill Downs. But at 8-1 or higher, enigmatic pace-presser Cavalry Charge is this bettor’s play in the Million. Consider the company lines “Who did they beat?” suggests Damon’s Mound can defeat Gulfport on Saturday in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special. Damon’s Mound defeated two next-out maiden winners in his 84-Beyer Speed Figure debut. Gulfport’s 83-Beyer debut win was at the expense of a next-out runner-up and six others who finished off the board next out. On the other hand, the only horse to run back after chasing Gulfport in his 91-Beyer Bashford Manor Stakes win, fourth-place Simply Super, returned Tuesday to win a restricted stakes at Colonial Downs. :: Visit the Del Mar Handicapping Store for Past Performances, Clocker Reports, Picks, Betting Strategies and more. Ex-fighter commits to saddle Chel-c Bailey is not “technically retired” from mixed martial arts, but that part of her athletic career is on hold while she focuses on riding at Del Mar. “It’s one or the other,” the apprentice jockey said one morning last weekend between workers. “You can’t half-ass it fighting, you can’t half-ass it in horse racing.” Bailey was a champion wrestler in high school in Washington, a wrestler in college, and undefeated (3-0) as an MMA fighter. Her firm handshake matches her background. Bailey has arrived at Del Mar, where she rides with a five-pound apprentice allowance. Bailey, 30, has ridden mostly in the Midwest and won 47 races. She rides maiden filly Lady Audubon in race 4 on Friday. Stay tuned. Absolutely Zero going for 6 It’s almost like taking points off the board in a football game – scratching Absolutely Zero from the CTBA Stakes for California-bred fillies on Aug. 7 at Del Mar to run instead in the Grade 2 Sorrento on Aug. 13. Stakes winner Absolutely Zero (67 Beyer) surely would have won the low-rated CTBA (59 Beyer). Her scratch is like a football team that kicks a field goal, then takes points off the board accepting a penalty that gives them a first down instead. Absolutely Zero may not win the Sorrento, but the potential upside (residual value) of a filly in a Grade 2 outweighs the $125,000 purse of the CTBA purse. If she misses in the Sorrento, Absolutely Zero can “settle for three” on Sept. 5 in the $125,000 Generous Portion Stakes for California-bred fillies. Runner-up or first loser? Department of self-congratulations: I am highly skilled at picking and betting horses to win stakes at Del Mar and have them finish second. Those include Desert Dawn (6.30-1) last Saturday in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch and Chedda Cash (6.40-1) last Sunday in the CTBA. It must be a losing week to stoop this low and brag on runners-up that were bet to win. If there is a silver lining to Desert Dawn and Chedda Cash, at least both fired. Both were second-best. I probably should have tweeted this important information. #Humblebrag