It is frustrating to land on an appealing longshot, only to find everyone has the same idea and the supposed longshot starts as a surprise underlay. It is good practice to determine beforehand the minimum price a horse is worth backing. If the odds are too low, pass. In the case of six upset candidates at the three Thoroughbred tracks operating Friday – Tampa Bay Downs, Gulfstream Park and Oaklawn Park – a minimum-odds clause accompanies the rationale for each. They are: :: To stay up to date, follow us on: Facebook | Instagram | Twitter TAM, race 4 (1:52 ET) – The speed did not come back to late-runner Delta Levy (10) in his most recent start; pacesetters ran 1-2 all the way while Delta Levy rallied from eighth to fourth. Not bad. He drops two levels to a $10k claiming turf route with pace to run at. His figures are close to par for the level, his price is an appealing 6-1. Will settle for 4-1. TAM, race 6 (2:53 ET) – Bombs away? Centerfoldprospect (9) ran the race of his career blitzing a nonwinners-of-two $16k claiming turf route last out; this entry-level allowance probably is out of reach. However, Centerfoldprospect has been chasing relatively fast fractions, and there is at least a chance he is better than his times/figures indicate. Centerfoldprospect is a crazy flyer at 15-1 on the morning line, worth a longshot play at 10-1 or higher. GP, race 5 (3:08 ET) – Given that favorite Dalarna (2) has won three in a row and defeated closer High Noon Rider (6) two straight, perhaps it is folly to back High Noon Rider. But he had excuses in both recent starts (clipped heels, slow pace). This starter allowance turf mile has speed to run at. At 6-1 in the program in a race that sets up for his late style, High Noon Rider is worth a win bet and exacta saver under the favorite. Pass if less than 4-1. TAM, race 8 (3:55 ET) – Another bomber on Tampa turf? Surprise Again (1) was bred to be a good one, but slow to develop. She is coming around as a 4-year-old, and continued her pattern by scoring an entry-level allowance surprise last out with a fast final five-sixteenths. Her N1X figure was only five points below par for this N2X, and each race has been better than the race before. Doubt she will be 20-1; settle for half that and take 10-1. OP, race 6 (3:36 CT) – Mineyerownmalone (5) meets easier in this $25k claiming route than in recent starter allowances in which he was pace compromised. He pressed and tired in both, and closers won both. Mineyerownmalone is in better form than it looks, and has earned figures close to par for this level. At an appealing 8-1 morning line, the veteran is worth a win bet and exacta under legit chalk Hardly a Secret (8). Pass if ’Malone is less than 5-1. OP, race 8 (4:38 CT) – This three-other-than/classified allowance route attracted a stakes-caliber field loaded with speed. The pace scenario suits presser/stalker Kurilov (8), up in class after successive claiming-caliber wins. A Group 1 dirt winner in Chile, Grade 1 turf runner-up in the U.S., Kurilov is a reliable veteran in top form, listed at a square 4-1 in a deep field. Sticking with the nine-time winner to win his third straight, 7-2 minimum.