HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. – Handicappers can look at the $1 million Florida Derby from six ways to Sunday but in reality the end result will likely boil down to the one question nobody can really answer with any certainty: Which Fierceness will show up Saturday at Gulfstream Park? Will it be the one who captured his debut by 11 1/4 lengths and dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 6 1/4 lengths to sew up divisional honors? Or the Fierceness who got beat 20 lengths in the Champagne and finished a disappointing third as the 1-5 favorite when he launched his 3-year-old campaign in the Grade 3 Holy Bull here earlier this winter? Even trainer Todd Pletcher is not entirely sure in light of all the variables involved, although his expectations are obviously high that the reigning juvenile champion will be back on top of his game when taking on 10 others, including Holy Bull winner Hades in the nine-furlong Kentucky Derby prep. The Grade 1 Florida Derby, which offers 200 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to be distributed on a 100-50-25-15-10 basis, will go as the finale on a 14-race program that includes nine other stakes, four of them graded, with first post at 11:30 a.m. At his best, Fierceness, the 8-5 morning line favorite, looms the most logical winner despite having some obstacles to overcome, not the least of which is having to begin his journey from post position 10 with a relatively short run to the first turn. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2024: Derby Watch, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more “Obviously, the post is not ideal,” said Pletcher, who is in search of a record eighth Florida Derby victory. “With the two-turn races here at Gulfstream, all the jockeys are so conscious of trying to get position into the first turn, it turns into a bit of a rodeo sometimes.” That’s kind of what happened to Fierceness after the start of the Holy Bull, when the heavy favorite got bumped from both sides leaving the gate and had to be rushed wide into the clubhouse turn to get into stalking position just off the leaders. “He got slammed from both sides and Johnny [Velazquez] had to use him a little more to get the position we wanted to get to, and the more I watched the replay, the more I believe it really compromised him in the end,” Pletcher noted. “Hopefully we get away smoothly on Saturday, even if we have to sacrifice a little ground to get a good trip. Unfortunately the post is something we have no control over. We just have to make the best of it.” Pletcher does take comfort in the fact that Forte, whom he trained, overcame a brutal trip from post 11 to win the 2023 Florida Derby. Pletcher’s confidence level also skyrockets when talking about the way Fierceness has trained coming into the race. “The horse always breezes super and he’s continued to do just that,” said Pletcher. “We’ve been targeting the Florida Derby since the Holy Bull and we’ve stuck to our game plan. Fierceness is one of two 3-year-olds Pletcher has in the Florida Derby for owner Mike Repole along with Bail Us Out, who exits a half-length maiden win going 1 1/16 miles on the Tapeta course two months earlier. “We’re taking a shot, he’s got to improve,” Pletcher said of Bail Us Out. “I do think he wants to run longer. He’s the kind of horse who can sit back and maybe pick up some pieces if there’s a meltdown up front.” Hades vaulted from a promising Florida-bred prospect to a major player in the 3-year-old division by fending off a mid-race bid from Fierceness, then holding safe a late rally from Domestic Product to register a two-length victory in the Holy Bull. The latter flattered the race by returning to win the Tampa Bay Derby earlier this month. :: Access morning workout reports straight from the tracks and get an edge with DRF Clocker Reports Hades, who is perfect in three starts and is currently rated 14th on Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch list, earned a huge amount of respect for his performance in the Holy Bull by not only reasserting himself after relinquishing the lead to Fierceness on the second turn but for the manner in which he found another gear at the wire to gallop out far ahead of the field into the clubhouse turn. Trained by Joe Orseno, Hades got the best of the post position draw for his rematch with Fierceness, and will break from post 2 under regular rider Paco Lopez. “He couldn’t be doing any better coming out of the Holy Bull, he’s done everything we’ve asked him to do,” said Orseno. “I don’t think we necessarily want to be on the lead again but we certainly will let him run out of there to get good position and then just play the cards the way they are stacked from there.” Conquest Warrior is widely considered the most dangerous of the new faces in the Florida Derby, coming into his stakes debut having captured both local starts. He overcame a nightmarish trip to win a one-mile maiden race in his local bow before returning to dominate entry-level allowance competition by five lengths while readily stretching out to nine furlongs for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey. Unfortunately, like Fierceness, Conquest Warrior is poorly drawn in post 9, a starting slot that has yielded just two winners from 105 starters in races decided at nine furlongs here since the track was newly configured 15 years ago. :: Subscribe to the DRF Post Time Email Newsletter: Get the news you need to play today's races!  “It’s a big step up, but it’s time to find out if we’re going to go on down the road the way we hope to,” said McGaughey, whose Orb won the 2013 Florida Derby as a stepping-stone to capturing the Kentucky Derby. The remainder of the field includes Le Dom Bro and Frankie’s Empire, second and third, respectively, behind Dornoch in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth; Grand Mo the First, a close third in the Tampa Derby; Real Macho; Catalytic, Seminole Chief; and Iris’s Dream. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.