In this series DRF handicapper/linemaker David Aragona provides his opinion of what constitutes fair win value for each runner in a weekend stakes race. The goal of this series is to bypass standard ordinal selections, instead developing price-based opinions around every horse in the field for the purpose of informing sound wagering decisions. My opinions about this Pegasus World Cup haven’t formed easily. After hours of handicapping, poring over replays, speed figures, statistics, and workout videos, I still lack a hardened sense of how the race is likely to unfold. The potential for chaos feels high, and I’m going into the race with a relatively open mind. There certainly isn’t one particular horse that fits all of the criteria I typically emphasize in my handicapping, so the exercise of making picks or developing a wagering strategy becomes particularly daunting.  In these types of situations, a fair odds line becomes an essential part of the wagering process, bringing clarity to a race that previously seemed inscrutable. The grid below displays the track’s morning line, my own estimation of the expected post-time odds, and the price that I deem to be fair value on each horse. These fair odds represent my best approximation of each horse’s actual chances of winning, based on my opinion of the race.  Given the difficulties of handicapping a race as convoluted as this Pegasus World Cup, settling on win percentages for each horse can be a challenge. However, even when you lack confidence in your opinions, pushing yourself to assign likelihoods to each horse goes a long way toward refining any subsequent decisions about which are the right ones to bet. It forces you to look at the race from another perspective, and breaks down the decision-making process into smaller puzzles that are a bit easier to solve. And importantly, these win percentages, and the fair odds line derived from them, do not have to be static. Opinions may evolve as the conditions on race day take shape, influenced by track bias or the physical appearance of horses, and fair odds should reflect that. Another important, and often overlooked, component of a fair odds line is to develop some expectations of the post-time odds. The Pegasus World Cup is the final race on the card and the last leg of various multi-race sequences on Saturday, so there is value in having a decent opinion about how the public will bet this race to inform those wagers. For many handicappers, this comes down to deciding where you agree or disagree with the track’s morning line. In this Pegasus there are some key differences between my expected odds and the morning line. While I agree that National Treasure (#7) and First Mission (#8) are likely to vie for favoritism, I would be surprised if anyone in this field went off under 2-1 at post time. I anticipate roughly similar odds on this pair, in the 5-2 to 3-1 range. I also think there are a couple of horses likely to drift significantly up or down from their morning lines. Among those listed at single-digit odds, Grand Aspen (#9) feels likely to be more of a longshot, drifting up to a price in the range of 20-1. Conversely, Senor Buscador (#6) is appealing from far too many angles to get overlooked in this spot. I expect him to be a lukewarm third choice in this race, somewhere around 6-1. Having developed some opinions about how others will approach the race, what are the key takeaways from my own fair odds line? Between the favorites, I view National Treasure (#7) as a more formidable presence than First Mission, though I don’t expect either one to be a great bet. Even at my minimum 3-1 odds, there are more interesting win bets than National Treasure. Yet I can acknowledge his likelihood to be involved in the exotics, and even use him sparingly as a horse of neutral impact on those that offer greater value. There’s some temptation to upgrade Senor Buscador (#6) given the expected pace scenario and unfavorable circumstances he encountered last time. However, I can envision him attracting too much support based on that assessment and morning line. I wouldn’t be willing to accept less than 8-1 on a horse with his running style, especially in a race that historically hasn’t benefited deep closers. Among the horses at mid-tier prices on my fair odds line, two runners exiting the Clark present as viable candidates. That race’s winner Trademark (#5) can be viewed as a horse that would have been better to have last time when he was dismissed at 13-1 against a softer field. However, he goes out for connections that are likely to ensure a square price once again. His running style appears to fit this race perfectly, but I can only give him a 9 percent chance to win (10-1 fair odds) considering his light work tab and the possibility that this race is merely an afterthought. Another horse from the Clark is more intriguing to me. Il Miracolo (#10) has been knocking on the door against top competition, steadily improving over the past year. He had subtle, overlooked trips in races like the Florida Derby and Belmont Stakes early last year and has since gained consistency despite being kept on an aggressive schedule. He arguably was the best horse in the Fayette after a rough stretch drive and just looked a little over the top in the Clark last time. Now he’s had 64 days to regroup, the longest gap between races in his career. He’s been training right along for this target at his home track and may be ready to deliver a peak effort as a fresh horse. Most of the true longshots in this Pegasus appear to have their work cut out for them. The only one among those who I find myself upgrading through this fair odds process, to my surprise, is Crupi (#11). Most view him as the outsider among Todd Pletcher’s trio. However, he clearly is coming into this race in the best form of his career. It took him a long time to shed his maiden status, but he has apparently discovered his competitive spirit over the last several months, winning four of his last five starts. The latest of those was a gritty victory in the Queens County, where he overcame severe traffic into the clubhouse turn. He also ran better than the result indicates in the Pennsylania Derby after getting stymied in the stretch. The expected quick pace of this race suits him, and he will be a better price than most other closers in this field. Through this fair odds process, my scattered opinions on the race start to coalesce into a wagering strategy. Both Il Miracolo and Crupi appear to be solid win bets. With implied win percentages of 9 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, on my fair odds line, neither one is a particularly likely winner of the race. Yet my opinion is that both will offer substantial value. I will leverage that by keying these two horses in exotics and using with viable contenders like Trademark and National Treasure in multi-race bets.