In this series DRF handicapper/linemaker David Aragona provides his opinion of what constitutes fair win value for each runner in a weekend stakes race. The goal of this series is to bypass standard ordinal selections, instead developing price-based opinions around every horse in the field for the purpose of informing sound wagering decisions. I’m always reticent to accept too short a price on anyone in the Belmont Stakes given the universal uncertainty around the ability of all entrants to get the demanding 1 1/2 miles distance. And there is an added layer of uncertainty surrounding morning line favorite Forte (#6) as he returns from an unplanned 10-week layoff. There’s no denying that the colt possesses a great deal of talent, but he has major questions to answer on Saturday. His path into this race has hardly been ideal, given the circumstances around his Derby scratch and subsequent 10-week layoff. Furthermore, I still have doubts about his overall progression, as his speed figures have hit a plateau since his two-year-old season. I took a negative view of him prior to his Derby scratch, and I am also against him here.  The grid below displays my morning line odds for the Belmont along with my fair odds and expected value on each horse. Fair odds represent my opinion of a runner’s actual chances of winning. I rate Forte’s fair odds at 6-1, which represents a 14 percent chance of victory. Given the gap between my view of the favorite and his expected public support, his presence in this race creates an opportunity to extract value elsewhere. I believe the two most likely winners of this Belmont are Angel of Empire (#8) and Tapit Trice (#2). I rate Angel of Empire’s chances of success at 25 percent, which translates to fair odds of 3-1, and Tapit Trice’s likelihood at 20 percent, represented by fair odds of 4-1. Angel of Empire in many ways is the most reliable runner in this field. He’s been on an upward trajectory and has adapted to a variety of circumstances as he’s risen to prominence. The addition of blinkers and stretch-out are minor concerns, but I nevertheless expect him to run well.  I take a similar view of Tapit Trice, though he arguably has a bit more to prove after a disappointing Derby result. The long-striding colt just never looked comfortable, attempting to close from last in the 18-horse field, with Luis Saez having to keep after him for essentially the entire race. He figures to have an opportunity to get into a better rhythm going this longer distance, and he seems physically suited to this expansive Belmont Park oval. However, that take is widely shared by most handicappers and will be baked into his price. There are arguments to be made for horses like National Treasure (#4) and Arcangelo (#3), but I have some reservations about both of them. The former took advantage of a perfect setup in the Preakness and could face a more competitive pace scenario this time. Arcangelo is an intriguing new face to the group, but he gets a significant class test while stretching out to two turns for the first time. He’s generated some buzz heading into this race, so I highly doubt he will drift up to my fair odds. From a value standpoint, I can get more interested in Hit Show (#7). He actually ran a deceptively strong race in the Derby, racing fairly close to that punishing pace and making an early move into contention on the far turn before flattening out. I can’t say that I love his form prior to that, and I also have some questions about his ability to get the distance. However, the price figures to be fair, and his tactical speed should put him in position to issue an early challenge. And then there’s the deep closer in the field, Red Route One (#9). The widely held belief that horses lacking early speed struggle in the Belmont Stakes isn’t actually supported by the data, as the race is no more speed-favoring than the other Triple Crown events. I think it’s worth noting, especially given the fast pace designation, that Red Route One receives the ‘LP’ flag on the TimeformUS Pace Projector, indicating that he has the highest Late Pace Rating in the field. That superior finishing power matters in a race like the Belmont. His top TimeformUS Figure of 111 is a cut below those of the top contenders, but distance is often an equalizer in this race, and he is supposed to relish the longer trip.  Red Route One showed subtle progression in the Preakness last time, displaying far better tactical speed through the middle of the race. He did get outsprinted in the final quarter, but was still staying on through the wire despite being compromised by the slow pace. He lacks the brilliance of some others in here, but he’s a relentless finisher who reliably responds when put to pressure.  I rate Red Route One’s chances of winning the Belmont at 10 percent, or 9-1, suggesting that his morning line odds of 15-1 represent a significant overlay. I view all three of the runners drawn in the outside slots of the starting gate as viable bets, but Red Route One will almost surely offer the best value.