ARCADIA, Calif. – Quality trumps quantity Saturday at Santa Anita. Just five 3-year-olds are entered in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, the smallest field for the 1 1/8-mile race since 2006. Yet while many snicker at field size, few dispute its significance – Kentucky Derby berths, and favoritism, are on the line at Santa Anita. Journalism, this year’s darling 3-year-old, meets Citizen Bull, last year’s champion juvenile male, in a Santa Anita Derby that includes the possibly distance-challenged Barnes and exciting well-bred maiden winner Baeza. Westwood, a maiden, is the outsider. Citizen Bull was always a step ahead of Journalism in terms of development, and Citizen Bull, a front-runner, figures to be positioned ahead of his rival in the race. Journalism, however, based on his three-race win streak and recent 108 Beyer Speed Figure, is the deserving 6-5 program favorite. Skeptics wonder if Journalism’s triple-digit performance was too fast. “You always worry about them first time after a big number,” trainer Michael McCarthy said. “But the horse has trained well [since]. There’s a chance he could bounce. There’s a chance he could improve.” :: DRF Road to the Derby Package Available Now! Save 37% on key handicapping essentials through Kentucky Derby Day. Journalism is not as quick as Citizen Bull. But the longer they go, the better Journalism runs. Third in his sprint debut days before Citizen Bull won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Journalism stretched out and has won a maiden, the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity, and a highly rated Grade 2 San Felipe. “The more ground he covers, the better it is for him,” jockey Umberto Rispoli said. “And he’s [taken] kickback, he’s not afraid of it. Good horses don’t mind kickback.” Journalism might be better than good. Sired by Curlin, produced by a Grade 2 winner, and working well, Journalism should deliver another top performance. “He’s training just as well now as he was prior to the San Felipe,” McCarthy said. But the one to catch is Citizen Bull, the 9-5 second choice whose three-race win streak includes the Grade 1 American Pharoah, BC Juvenile, and Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis. In all three, Citizen Bull and jockey Martin Garcia exploited the best trip in racing – loose on the lead. “He looks really good right now, this will set him up for the next one,” trainer Bob Baffert said. “He’s happy. He’s a smart horse. If you ask him to go, he’ll go. He shows me different gears.” Citizen Bull’s pace rival in the Santa Anita Derby is stablemate Barnes, an impressive sprint winner in his first two starts. His stock dropped after he finished second to Journalism in the two-turn San Felipe. Baffert changed equipment on Barnes and removed blinkers in workouts, trying to teach him to ration his speed. The works without blinkers did not go well. Barnes was outworked March 17 and March 23. Baffert re-equipped Barnes with blinkers for a Monday work. He settled behind a sacrificial workmate and then blew past. The work was a step in the right direction for Barnes, whose Kentucky Derby status hinges on his Santa Anita Derby finish. Barnes needs Kentucky Derby points, which is not a concern for Journalism (47.5 points) or Citizen Bull (60). Barnes has 18.75 points. With five runners in the Santa Anita Derby, available Kentucky Derby points for the top three finishers are 75, 37.5, and 18.75. Barnes must finish first or second to insure a Kentucky Derby berth. Juan Hernandez rides Barnes. A mile and one-eighth might be a reach. Baeza is the Santa Anita Derby sleeper, off an impressive maiden win in his third start. Sired by McKinzie, Baeza is a half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. It’s a big step up for Baeza to go from a 93-Beyer maiden win to a Grade 1. “It’s a huge step,” trainer John Shirreffs said, though a Santa Anita Derby win by a last-out maiden winner is not unprecedented. Taiba in 2022 and Midnight Interlude in 2011 won the Santa Anita Derby following maiden wins. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Shirreffs has tightened the screws on Baeza since his March 1 win. With zero Kentucky Derby points, Baeza is in a virtual must-win situation in the Santa Anita Derby. “His workouts have been really good, and he’s still a young horse, relatively, for his age bracket [foaled May 13],” Shirreffs said. “He’s still developing, still getting stronger, and still adjusting to the workload. Every week there’s a little bit of improvement. “His greatest attribute probably is that he loves a distance of ground,” Shirreffs added. “Everything we’ve ever done with him, he’s always done better when he went farther. His gallops, his works, everything. He has that distance thing going for him. And of course, his breeding. He’s got that in his back pocket.” Hector Berrios rides Baeza, an attractive gamble at 6-1 program odds. Tiago Pereira rides Shirreffs’s second starter, Westwood. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.