Let’s get to the points. The long and winding road that leads to the Kentucky Derby on May 4 began with the Iroquois at Churchill Downs last Sept. 15 and concludes Saturday with the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn and the Lexington at Keeneland. Those two races are the final chances for horses to earn enough points to make the field, and the likes of Anothertwistafate, in the Lexington, and Country House, in the Arkansas Derby, are being wheeled back on short rest to try to get in, because if the series ended now, they’d be out. A maximum of 20 horses can run in the Derby, and at the moment, the number of points needed to make the field is more than usual. There are 17 horses with 40 points or more, and that number has the potential to increase to 20 horses depending on the results of this Saturday’s races. What also is making points more valuable this year is that there are two spots potentially reserved for overseas runners through separate series, and one already is taken, as Master Fencer is committed to the race via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series. There is the strong potential that another runner could emerge via the European Road to the Kentucky Derby series, which was to end on Thursday with a stakes race at Chelmsford City northeast of London. If both those spots get claimed, that leaves 18 spots in the Derby field for everyone else, which raises the number of points needed to make the field. Signalman, who finished third in the Blue Grass on Saturday and now has 38 points, and Bourbon War, who was second in the Fountain of Youth and fourth in the Florida Derby and has 31 points, have completed their preps and are in jeopardy of not being in the Derby. Anothertwistafate and Country House both have 30 points. Blaine Wright, who trains Anothertwistafate, said he would have preferred to go straight into the Derby. But he’d also prefer to be in the Derby. For Anothertwistafate to make it without running this week would have required a number of horses currently above him to defect, in addition to those who potentially could leapfrog him this weekend, including Improbable, who goes in the Arkansas Derby and has 25 points. The Arkansas Derby is worth 170 points overall, with 100 for first, 40 for second, 20 for third, and 10 for fourth. The Lexington offers 20 points for first and 8 for second, so Anothertwistafate likely needs to win to be assured of getting in. But the Lexington field appears to be the far softer of the two, with the Arkansas Derby attracting heavy hitters like Improbable, Long Range Toddy, and Omaha Beach. :: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders with comments from Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Signalman was nosed out of second in the Blue Grass, a difference of 20 points. He has 38 and likely will be on the bubble after this weekend. “We’re not desperate to get in,” said trainer Kenny McPeek. “Even if he can get in, we think the Preakness might be a good race for him. If he gets excluded, we’ll go to Pimlico. The Preakness might be the best thing for him.” On any betting line for the Derby, Bourbon War likely would be a far shorter price than a number of horses who will get in. But his connections decided it was not in the colt’s best interests to jam him back this Saturday, just two weeks after the Florida Derby, to try to get sufficient points. “I said all winter he’s a work in progress,” trainer Mark Hennig said. “Back at the Remsen, he was still filling out and growing, and he still is. We’re taking the long-term approach. We’d like to run in the Derby, but the last thing we want to do is ruin the horse for our dreams. Nothing can undo a growth spurt more than throwing him to the wolves back to back.” As a result, though, Bourbon War’s path to the Derby starting gate looks difficult. “You hate to be in a position to root for the attrition rate to kick in, but that’s the position we’re in – we’re only getting in if others come out,” Hennig said. “We feel like if he got in, he’d fit, but the bottom line is we had our opportunity, and he didn’t get in. We can kick ourselves, say maybe we should have gone to the Wood or the Blue Grass, but we thought he’d get the proper pace in the Florida Derby, he likes Gulfstream, and we liked the five weeks from there to the Derby. It just didn’t work out.”