In 2002, Indiana was home to 113 registered Thoroughbred stallions. In 2022, that number was down to 47. During breeding season 2021, 430 registered Thoroughbred were foaled in the state, down from a peak of 739 in 2010. Fewer stallions, fewer horses, but plenty of money for Indiana horses: Average annual earnings per horse increased from about $15,000 in 2020 to nearly $25,000 in 2022, and the four heavily restricted stakes races Saturday at Horseshoe Indianapolis demonstrate why. The Indiana Stallion for 2-year-old fillies and the Crown Ambassador for 2-year-olds each are worth $100,000. The Lady Fog Horn for 3-year-old fillies has a $200,000 purse, and the Unreachable Star for 3-year-olds offers $250,000. All four races are not just for Indiana-breds, but for Indiana-breds by Indiana sires. It does not take an especially fast horse to win such a race, a diminished foal crop running for more restricted money than ever has been available. :: Bet with the Best! Get FREE All-Access PPs and Weekly Cashback when you wager on DRF Bets. The Lady Fog Horn and the Unreachable Star, two-turn dirt races, are carded as handicaps to avoid the restriction on Lasix use applied to stakes race. Lasix isn’t permitted in the 2-year-old races, both at six furlongs. The starting highweight in the Unreachable Star, weighted at 126, is Macho Justice, who, contradictorily, also is listed at 15-1 on the track’s morning line. Two starts ago, Macho Justice finished third in an Indiana-restricted, nonwinners-of-three $5,000 claimer. Last out, he was a narrow winner of a $100,000 Indiana sales stakes. Corona Grande is a more likely winner. He was eighth, beaten 12 lengths on Sept. 13, in the Empire Handicap, but that race had no Indiana sire restriction and was open to older horses. Corona Grande, leading 2023 earner for Indiana’s fourth-leading sire, Unbridled Express, was third in the Governor’s Handicap and second in the Snack, 3-year-old restricted dirt routes, and will contend if he can produce a similar performance. That’s an open question since the gelding is making the 10th start of a campaign that began in April. On Beyer Speed Figures, C. J’s Storm, with a pair of 79s in his two most recent starts, is the most likely winner. Those figures, however, were earned in sprints and C. J’s Storm’s last two route tries were hapless. Itzforever leads Lady Fog Horn Plenty of quick sprinters populate the Lady Fog Horn – reliable route horses are in much shorter supply. Perhaps the best of them is Itzforever, 3 for 3 in dirt routes since trainer Tony Granitz began racing the filly in blinkers. Itzforever is co-highweighted at 124 and has a greater handicap than that, post position 12. It’s not impossible to win from that spot but post 12 in mile and 70-yard dirt races at Horseshoe Indianapolis has gone 6 for 60 since 2010. That’s a higher strike rate than post 11 (9 percent) and post 10 (5 percent), and posts 1 to 6 have conferred a meaningful advantage at the distance over a large sample. Imagine the Moon has a somewhat better draw, post 8, more speed and perhaps greater route upside than Itzforever, who narrowly beat her in their last meeting. Deshawn Parker, who recently returned from serious injuries sustained in a pre-race spill, has the mount. ◗ Kingsbury Road should be tough in the Crown Ambassador, slightly dropping in class and cutting back from a route to a sprint. Kingsbury Road was a second-start maiden winner over a two-turn mile but his fading third-place finish Oct. 4 in the Indiana Futurity at a mile and 70 yards hinted at a horse looking for less distance. That race was won in a route by Molly’s Turn, the best Indiana-bred 2-year-old of 2023. ◗ The Indiana Stallion is stupefyingly inscrutable. Among the dozen fillies in the main body of the field, only two have earned a Beyer higher than 40. Still, one of these Indiana-sired runners is going to walk way with the $60,000 winner’s share of a purse. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.