NEW ORLEANS – This is the time. The time when 3-year-old promise must alchemize into production to make the Kentucky Derby with a legitimate chance. So it goes for the 10 horses entered in the Louisiana Derby on Saturday at Fair Grounds, and promise more than production defines this group. John Hancock on Feb. 8 captured the Sam F. Davis Stakes, his second win from as many starts, but his top Beyer Speed Figure, 84, is not Derby material. Chunk of Gold was 43-1 making his third start and dirt debut when he chunked home a distant second behind Magnitude – since injured and sidelined – in the Risen Star here last month. Chunk of Gold is the only Louisiana Derby entrant part of Daily Racing Form’s 20-horse Derby Watch this week. :: KENTUCKY DERBY 2025: Top contenders, point standings, prep schedule, news, and more Hypnus, like John Hancock, races for the third time. His debut win in a Fair Grounds dirt route surpassed John Hancock’s sprint maiden score, but where John Hancock followed up with stakes success, Hypus finished seventh in the Rebel at Oaklawn Park. That trio combines the fewest starts with greatest upside among the 10 entered in the Louisiana Derby, at 1 3/16 miles the longest of all domestic Derby prep races. But with Kentucky Derby season hitting full stride, one might overlook the fact this is a Grade 2 race with a $1 million purse. Others in the race might have less upside but just as strong a chance to win. “I’m looking at it like my Kentucky Derby. Let’s see what we can do Saturday and go from there,” said Wayne Catalano, trainer of Built. Only Tiztastic, with seven starts, has raced more than Built, who has won 2 of 5 while accumulating 35 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, most among Louisiana Derby runners and possibly enough to make the 20-horse Kentucky Derby, even with a minor placing Saturday. The first five home earn, respectively, 100, 50, 25, 15, and 10 points. Catalano doesn’t want to Derby just to Derby. “He’d probably have to be first or second to make you really want to go, right?” Catalano said. Built is one of two Louisiana Derby runners along with Vassimo racing in blinkers for the first time. Built scored a second-out maiden win over seven furlongs at Keeneland and led from the start through a slow-early, fast-late Gun Runner Stakes, a route here on Dec. 26. But even when Built ran well, he only ran in spots. Built jumped shadows and Catalano added a shadow roll for the Risen Star, where Built was the only horse to make a run at fast pacesetter Magnitude, who skipped over a speed-favoring track and won in a blowout. Jose Ortiz rides Built for the first time but worked the horse earlier this year, when Built went fast but without any real intention. Breezing a blinkered Built on March 14, Ortiz felt a different, more professional horse, Catalano said. “He’s right where I want him to be.” John Hancock won’t start from a place his connections want him to be when he breaks from the rail under Flavien Prat. John Hancock led in his sprint debut and led fleet Owen Almighty in the Sam Davis, getting slightly away from his pace rival in the final strides. “We saw how determined he was in the Sam Davis, and he galloped out great,” said trainer Brad Cox. “I think he’s developed. He’s going to have to break running.” John Hancock, Yinzer, and Furio look like primary pace players, but Joe Sharp, Furio’s trainer, said he wants his horse to race behind a target. Yinzer, though, could make a bid for the early lead. “He could be the right horse if the track comes up fast and speed-favoring,” Asmussen said. :: DRF Road to the Derby Package Available Now! Save 37% on key handicapping essentials through Kentucky Derby Day. Asmussen and Cox also have late-running hopes. Tiztastic, with Ortiz up, finished an even fifth last out in the Rebel. Joel Rosario takes the mount Saturday, and Asmussen expects a better showing than in Arkansas. “He had a good opportunity to run better, and he just ran in place. I expect more acceleration at Fair Grounds,” Asmussen said. Cox’s second horse, Instant Replay, cleared the maiden ranks for a $100,000 claiming tag, and not until his fifth start, a last-out, first-level dirt route maiden win at Fair Grounds, did he look like a stakes horse. Instant Replay got favorable race flow Feb. 17 but made the most of it with a going-away, five-length win. “It’s a step up but he’s done well all winter and he’s a horse that could get the trip,” Cox said. Chunk of Gold also will come from off the pace, though perhaps not as far off as in the Risen Star, trainer Ethan West believes. A $2,500 auction buy, Chunk of Gold ran well his first two starts over the Tapeta surface at West’s Turfway Park base, and came from eighth in the early stages to nip Built for second in the Risen Star. “He’s kind of amped it up on his own in his training. He was very immature mentally. It seemed like after the Risen Star the light bulb started getting brighter,” said West. Caldera at a 2-year-old auction cost $497,500 more than Chunk of Gold and has improved steadily since trainer Wayne Lukas stretched him out to routes. He’s come back with strong Oaklawn works after Getaway Car, solid but far from a star, pipped him in the Sunland Derby on Feb. 16. Vassimo, a lumbering hulk of a colt, looked like an obvious candidate for blinkers after his Risen Star, where he came off the bridle past the half-mile pole and looked like he’d fade out of the picture. Instead, Vassimo found life in the homestretch and finished fourth. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won this race a record five times. Trainer Kenny McPeek never has won the Louisiana Derby, but Hypnus rates a serious chance for him. Blocked by several rivals for much of the homestretch after starting his run in the Rebel, Hypnus finished with interest when finally clear and galloped out strongly, a better performance than a standard seventh-place finish. Hypnus professionally and convincingly won his debut, and stands poised for his best yet. “He’s going to get a part of it,” McPeek flatly stated. The Louisiana Derby, post time set for 5:42 p.m. Central, is the last of 12 races on a card that starts at noon. It’s the cashing leg of an all-stakes pick five, and the wagering menu also offers a $1 pick five linking races at Fair Grounds and Turfway. Also in the sequence is the Turfway feature, the Jeff Ruby Steaks, another Derby prep. On the road to the Kentucky Derby, this is when the rubber meets the road. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.