ARCADIA, Calif. – It takes time and effort to parse the form of dozens of international Breeders’ Cup runners. These horses are all over the Saturday card. The time has been spent, the effort put forth. Here’s how it looks, and let’s hope it was worth the work. Classic International runners in main body: 2 Win chance: Moderate Contenders: Ushba Tesoro Ushba Tesoro became the second Japan-based horse to win the Dubai World Cup but was the first to do so on dirt when he went last to first this past March. He just might become the first Japan-based horse to win the Classic. The positives: Ushba Tesoro has gone 6 for 6 at 1 1/4 miles, and while it takes him an eighth of a mile or so to really stoke up, he has a big run for a dirt horse and really eats up ground when he hits full stride. He won the Dubai World Cup from the far outside post and made a mild middle move to get out of a distant last and into some sort of position. Even so, his ground loss through the second turn at Meydan was extreme. Ushba Tesoro was perhaps seven paths from the fence the second part of that long bend. :: Breeders' Cup Shop: DRF Past Performances available now He has been aimed for months at the Classic and got in what looked like an ideal prep race, where he was able to sit a few lengths off the lead. Ushba Tesoro has run right through heavy sand kickback in Japan and has been metronomically consistent since switching to dirt racing. The negatives: Ushba Tesoro’s lack of positional pace could leave him much to do through the second part of the Classic. The homestretch in Dubai is roughly 100 yards longer than the one at Santa Anita, and Ushba Tesoro had a similarly long stretch with which to work in his Japanese Group 1 victory. He might well have won the weakest dirt renewal of the Dubai World Cup. But this is not a strong Classic, either, and Ushba Tesoro has looked like a monster this week. Whatevers: Derma Sotagake Derma Sotogake has been pointed to the Classic since at least June and reportedly has grown considerably since May. The fact he hasn’t started since his decent fifth in the Kentucky Derby seems like a major concern. He has far more speed than Ushba Tesoro but when last seen was several lengths slower than his older rival. Turf International runners in main body: 7 Win chance: Strong Contenders: Auguste Rodin, King of Steel, Mostahdaf, Onesto Auguste Rodin figures the shortest price among the international septet, six horses from Europe and Shahryar from Japan. Obviously, this is a very, very good horse, a Derby winner with five Group 1 victories at distances between one mile and 1 1/2 miles. His trainer, Aidan O’Brien, believes Auguste Rodin will take to American racing, and there’s not a great reason to disagree. The fast Santa Anita course should be fine, and Auguste Rodin possesses ample athleticism to get around sharp turns and quicken down a homestretch minute by European standards. At a short price, however, the task is to poke holes in the horse. Auguste Rodin has been all or nothing this year – three wins and two no-shows, a 12th in the 2000 Guineas and a 10th in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. The ground was soft for the Guineas, but Auguste Rodin won last year over heavy going. No clear excuse exists for the King George flop. Auguste Rodin’s Derby came up standard for the race, a half-length win over King of Steel, who hadn’t started since age 2. His Irish Derby was more of a slog, and the fact Auguste Rodin was a 3-10 favorite speaks to a lack of true competition. Then came the King George dud on July 9, Auguste Rodin returning with a bounce-back victory Sept. 9 in the Irish Champion Stakes. While Auguste Rodin did show versatility cutting back to 1 1/4 miles in the Irish Champion, the race was handed to him on a platter, two stablemates dictating tempo as Auguste Rodin drafted in third. Even with a great setup Auguste Rodin only beat Luxembourg, a lower-level Group 1 horse, by a half-length. :: Get Breeders' Cup Clocker Reports from Mike Welsch and the DRF Clocker Team when you purchase a BC VIP Package! Mostahdaf, who won’t be far from favored, is a much different horse than Auguste Rodin, a 5-year-old who showed flashes of early ability but needed time to express it on the racecourse. The horse seems like a handful. Mostahdaf regularly turns his attention to his future stud career. He trains in a hood and races in cheek pieces. At his best, he’s excellent. With an assist from a perfect pressing trip, he put seven lengths on his nearest rival in the Neom Turf Cup this past winter in Saudi Arabia. Mostahdaf can show speed, as he did beating Luxembourg by four lengths in the Group 1 International at York. He won’t be too far off the lead and will love the firm going. No one disputes Mostahdaf’s best distance is 1 1/4 miles, yet nearly everyone seems to believe, despite a 4-0-1-0 record at the trip, that an American 1 1/2 miles will be fine for the horse. Could be. However, International winners are 0 for 9 in the Turf, the closest call Singspiel’s second in 1997. King of Steel has sufficient talent to win. Firm going is a plus for a huge colt who doesn’t figure to be at his best until age 4, at the earliest. King of Steel, though, bravely won the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over a boggy course just two Saturdays ago and has a poor draw in post 11. Those are serious negative factors. Onesto’s will be the longest price among this quartet, despite the fact he might be the one best-suited to the Turf. Ideal conditions for 4-year-old Onesto – 1 1/2 miles over a firm course. At 3, he finished second in the Irish Champion going a quarter-mile short of his best. His win going 1 1/2 miles in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris came at the expense of a very good horse, Simca Mille, and at the end of last year, Onesto ran into serious homestretch traffic finishing seventh in the Japan Cup. He belatedly made his 2023 debut in August over a one-mile trip far too short, ran into trouble though still somewhat below form in the Irish Champion, and comes to Santa Anita following an excellent third in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, a key historical lead-in to the Turf. Onesto eas just a nose short of catching Westover, who beat Mostahdaf by 3 1/2 lengths in the 1 1/2-mile Sheema Classic. Don’t say nevers: Shahryar The Shahryar who finished second in the Japan Cup 11 months ago can win the Turf, but no subsequent evidence suggests the same horse has come to California. Shahryar ran below form, beaten nine lengths, in the Sheema Classic and fell off a cliff in his only start since. The fact he has older races that could win the Turf coupled with his long price makes him usable. Whatevers: Bolshoi Ballet, Broome Broome ran the race of his life two Turfs ago at Del Mar but at this stage appears to be a potential pacemaker for Auguste Rodin. Bolshoi Ballet bossed lesser Americans over a yielding Saratoga course in the Sword Dancer but has little chance in a race this deep. Mile International runners in main body: 5 Win chance: Moderate Contenders: Mawj, Songline, Kelina, Master of The Seas While not a bad renewal of the Mile, it’s a race where nobody stands out, including these four. Mawj has done nothing wrong this year, other than miss the summer, beating a fabulous filly, Tahirya, in the 1000 Guineas and a very good one, Lindy, in the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland. At 1 1/8 miles, the QE II was beyond Mawj’s ideal trip; the filly is a natural miler. She has speed and is an athletic little horse who will suit this course. Regression following the long layoff remains a concern, though Mawj has looked fresh enough this week. The other three drew compromising outside posts. The Songline camp insists the mare need not fall as far off the early pace in the Mile as she has in her top Japanese performances, and the 1351 Turf Sprint in 2022 provides some evidence that’s plausible. Post 10 makes a tactical change tougher. Songline’s move is more long and sustained than a fast-twitch turn of foot. We’ll see how she suits this course. :: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets. Kelina might not be quite good enough or fully enough formed to win, though her Prix de la Foret suggests she might be. Kelina out-quicked Kinross in the final furlong to win by a half-length, and Kinross, besides winning multiple European Group 1s, finished a tough-trip third in the 2022 Mile. Kelina’s best race on firm turf towers over her soft-going peak. She might love American racing, though there’s nothing to love about post 11. The evergreen rule regarding a bad post position: Hold it against a short-priced horse, but don’t let it put you off a longshot. Master of The Seas is favored on Daily Racing Form’s morning line. Even were he clearly superior to his rivals – and he’s not – post 14 would be an impediment. Moreover, Master of The Seas also falls under the “three-and-out rule” – three peak performances followed by regression. Whatevers: Win Carnelian You’ll hear wise guys talking up Win Carnelian’s speed, and maybe he will lead, but there’s not one single race among his 23 that says he can win. Filly and Mare Turf International runners in main body:7 Win chance: Strong Contenders: Warm Heart, Inspiral Inspiral will be favored, despite the fact she’s never raced beyond one mile. Her strong finishes through the uphill portion of the Newmarket straight course and trainer John Gosden saying she’ll stay will be enough to convince many. Gosden is an all-time great, and Inspiral is a wonderful 4-year-old filly. Throw out her dud at Goodwood, where she couldn’t stand up on a soft course. Do note that was one of only two starts Inspiral has made going around a turn. Perhaps the sharp Santa Anita bends won’t trouble her, but Inspiral has her quirks. Excitable going to post, the filly on her first day training here stormed out of the international quarantine facility, eyes blazing, looking like an angry queen. She races professionally enough and should be positioned in a stalking spot. Inspiral went 4 for 4 at age 2. Warm Heart was 0 for 1, finishing a distant fourth over the all-weather surface at Dundalk. Hardly a hint of greatness there, but Warm Heart has come steadily along under the patient hand of Aidan O’Brien. Watch all her starts and see her confidence blooming, her understanding of what’s being asked of her during a race growing with every outing. :: BREEDERS’ CUP 2023: See DRF’s special section with top contenders, odds, comments, news, and more for each division Ryan Moore rides her for the third time. On May 20, he coaxed Warm Heart to a narrow win over Grade 1-class Bluestocking, Warm Heart fending off a stern challenge. Then came a breakthrough in the Group 2 Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot, the first time Warm Heart raced over fast ground. She loved the going and dominated with a front-end trip. Soft ground in the Irish Oaks ruined her chance, but back on fast ground in the Group 1 Yorkshire Oaks, Warm Heart once again refused to let a good, sharp horse – Free Wind –go past her. Softer ground and a stumbling start, and Warm Heart still won the Group 1 Prix Vermeille on Sept. 10. Warm Heart comes here a fresh horse. She has become fiercely competitive, and while all her top performances were at 1 1/2 miles, it has been her second-to-last furlong that’s most impressive. She’ll give Inspiral all she can handle. Don’t say nevers: Lumiere Rock Lumiere Rock is a 1 1/4-mile horse who likes firm turf and has pace: She can find a good spot not too far behind pacesetting In Italian. The filly appeared to be hanging earlier in the year but has improved since trainer Joseph O’Brien added cheek pieces two starts back. Whatevers: Win Marilyn, State Occasion, With The Moonlight Win Marilyn’s lone race that might make her worth considering, her win in the 2022 Hong Kong Vase, came over 1 1/2 miles and against soft opposition. Strange to say about a Godolphin horse trained by Charlie Appleby, but With The Moonlight isn’t good enough for this. State Occasion will have run to her very best if she can earn a check. Turf Sprint International runners in main body: 3 Win chance: Moderate Contenders: Live In The Dream Live In The Dream came to America before the Woodford Stakes on Oct. 7 at Keeneland and trained in Kentucky before flying to California. Top European sprints are contested down a straightaway, and because he didn’t become a stakes performer until earlier this year, Live In The Dream had plenty of opportunities racing left-handed. The turn was no issue in the Woodford; the problem was a no-hoper who came flying out of the gate and pushed Live In The Dream through extremely fast splits before fading to last. Live In The Dream held on to the eighth pole before tiring. His connections expressed satisfaction with the race. Live In The Dream better suits the five furlongs of the Turf Sprint than the 5 1/2 of the Woodford, and Santa Anita’s short homestretch helps him. The horse breaks sharply and has great speed. If he returns to the level of his Group 1 Nunthorpe, he probably wires this field. Don’t say nevers: Aesop’s Fables, Jasper Krone Jasper Krone has raced at five furlongs just once and won that start, but it came on a soft course against suspect competition. He’s a front-runner and is quite fast, but probably doesn’t have the juice to get to the lead from post 11 and will be going too fast if he does. Aesop’s Fables would have been a toss – until he ran a career best, by many lengths, racing in blinkers for the first time in the Prix de l’Abbaye on Oct. 1. On the other hand, Aesop’s Fables never has raced around a turn, probably prefers a longer distance, and does not have a ton of pace. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.