DEL MAR, Calif. – In 2023 at Santa Anita, horses from overseas had their best Breeders’ Cup Friday, and at least partly owing to that barrage, 23 entered on Breeders’ Cup Friday this year. Two-year-olds from Europe or Japan populate all five Friday races. If things broke really, really right, they could win them all. A year ago, European horses swept the top three placings in the Juvenile Turf Sprint, went one-two in the Juvenile Turf, and had a close second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Nine possible top three placings filled by six overseas horses. And so it has gone the last two years. After winning just two of the 12 Friday turf races between 2018 and 2021, trans-oceanic shippers have won five of the last six. A Friday turf sweep in 2022 at Keeneland included a pair of one-two finishes. You had better account for most of these 23 in your wagering strategy. We are here to help. Juvenile Turf Sprint Europeans came in droves when Breeders’ Cup added this race in 2018, but nearly all their horses misfired. In 2021 at Del Mar, Go Bears Go cracked the door open finishing second, and the Euros came pouring through the next two years, filling five of the six top three placings. What changed? They figured out the right kind of horse to send. European turf sprints nearly all take place on a straight course. Send a lightly raced 2-year-old from the fields of Ireland to the Los Angeles suburbs and throw a sharp turn at him shortly after the starting gate opens and you’re asking for trouble. The turn still can pose a challenge: Big Evs briefly threatened to blow it before cornering well enough to win. None of these Europeans possess quite the brilliant speed of Big Evs. A horse from the other side of the world does. Aesterius has not put a wrong hoof forward in his six-start career. Even his fifth in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot was solid: He hit a flat spot, as a second-time starter can do, about halfway through before finishing with interest. Aesterius went around a bend at Bath in his debut and handled it well, taking off when he switched leads in the homestretch, a good way to run in America. Aesterius breaks just okay but quickly finds his stride and races forwardly. His disposition appears steady other than in the Molecomb, where he sweated up pre-race. He peaked in the Flying Childers, where he avenged a loss to Big Mojo. Can he maintain that form in his seventh start? Trainer Archie Watson’s three previous Breeders’ Cup runners all came in this race, finishing sixth, 10th, and 12th. :: Get the inside scoop from the morning workouts with Breeders' Cup Clocker Reports from Mike Welsch and the DRF Clocker Team Arizona Blaze beat Aesterius in the Norfolk, finishing third after racing by himself, away from the other two groups, along the stands’ side rail. One wonders how much he’s progressed through an eight-start campaign. Timeform has him hitting a new level last out in a listed synthetic-surface stakes, which is difficult to understand. The competition in that left-handed sprint lacked sizzle, and Arizona Blaze didn’t catch the eye while failing to show his customary speed. Big Mojo comes from the same yard, that of Mick Appleby, as Big Evs, but similarities end there. Big Mojo lacks Big Evs’s early pace and has a different physical profile, more fullback than tailback. Second in his debut, he took Aesterius and 13 others by surprise second out in the Molecomb, racing greenly but bowling boldly between horses to win at 25-1. Still appearing to lack focus, he performed well in the Gimcrack, which, at six furlongs, seemed too far. He lost the Flying Childers to Aesterius but showed more positional pace, a good sign from a horse with only four starts. Ides of March required racing experience to get the hang of things. Racing from midpack first time out, he showed more speed in his second start, which took its toll late – as did running into his stablemate The Lion In Winter, a top European juvenile. Third time out, Ides of March broke like a rocket, easily clearing the maiden ranks over seven furlongs. Cut back to six in his next start he still made the front after a furlong, stepping up for a Group 3 win. This colt definitely has headed in the right direction, though trainer Aidan O’Brien did remark that a lack of pace in the Middle Park Stakes hurt the chances of his other entrant here, the presumed “A” Team, Whistlejacket. One might guess Ides of March winds up racing in front of Whistlejacket. Magnum Force lacks the pace some of his European brethren possess, though he kept the leaders in range running his best race yet in the Flying Childers. Yet even his best only got him within 1 1/2 lengths of Aesterius and Big Mojo. Shareholder ran remarkably winning the Norfolk, where he completely blew the start, pulled too hard even while covered up, yet still unleashed a serious turn of foot once taken off cover to win convincingly. There’s not much good to say about his Prix Morny, and a habitually slow starter is the last thing you want in a five-furlong Del Mar turf sprint. Whistlejacket brings the best credentials among the Europeans, and not just this year, but among any who’ve come for this race – winner of the Group 1 Prix Morny, second in two other Group 1s. Earlier in the year, Whistlejacket dwarfed many of his rivals, a physically advanced colt who has won all his races on the front end. Despite his size, he leaves the gate nimbly and gets quickly into stride, sometimes too much so, pulling hard for his head. He won his second start over five furlongs but since has focused on six-furlong racing, and while Mischief Magic cut back from the Middle Park to win at Keeneland two years ago, he had an extra half-furlong with which to work and needed every yard of it. No match for Shadow of Light’s powerhouse performance in the Middle Park, Whistlejacket began racing in April. It’s been a long year. Saving the best for last, we come to the first Japanese starter in this race, a lightning bolt named Ecoro Sieg. He’s very fast and very much for real. Debuting on a left-handed course, Ecoro Sieg won a maiden race as though jockey Christophe Lemaire merely was breezing the colt. Stepped up in class, Ecoro Sieg worked somewhat harder to win his second race – but not all that hard. His winning time came there within .02 of a second of the fastest six-furlong 2-year-old clocking ever recorded in Japan, and Ecoro Sieg will have no trouble backing up from six furlongs to five. Juvenile Fillies American Bikini already has turned in two impressive races at sprint distances, and her pedigree suggests a route horse in the making. She can win this race. Seems like American Bikini just practiced first time out, where she broke slowly, was taken wide with an early move to race with no cover around the turn, and barely was asked when challenged and eventually passed. In September, she would finish four lengths ahead of the horse who beat her. :: ON SALE NOW: DRF Breeders' Cup Packages! Get everything you need to win and save 41% off the retail price. Second out – go time. American Bikini broke better, led, opened up without being asked, and won by seven over Otomena Shacho, an easy maiden winner next out and an entrant here. Up in class to stakes and out to seven furlongs, American Bikini once again romped, her slick acceleration putting this race to sleep well before the finish. She changes leads like a champ and will show plenty of pace. Juvenile Fillies Turf Analysis starts, and probably ends, with Lake Victoria. Ballydoyle 2-year-olds of this caliber don’t come to the Breeders’ Cup, instead they are put away for the spring classics. It’s difficult, really, to understand why she’s here. One might theorize that connections wonder if Lake Victoria truly stays a testing European mile, but O’Brien said after the six-furlong Cheveley Park that jockey Ryan Moore jumped off and told him he could run her in the Fillies’ Mile at Newmarket this fall. Instead, she comes to Del Mar, a better version of Meditate, easily best for these connections in the 2022 Juvenile Fillies Turf. Narrowly favored over 15 in her debut, Lake Victoria went so strongly through the fifth and six furlongs that a well-bet filly named Red Letter nearly tagged her on the wire. No one has come close since. Lake Victoria got about six weeks between her first and second starts, and one can easily can see how much she developed physically during that span. Second out, she got right into the race, cruising to a front-running victory, but her Group 1 debut in the Moyglare Stud asked more of the filly. She readily gave it. Lake Victoria broke poorly, throwing her head about, and settled last of five, pulling a bit too much early before finding a rhythm. Steered outside for a run, Lake Victoria easily turned in the race’s fastest final quarter-mile to win going swiftly away. After coming from behind at seven furlongs, she returned to front-running tactics while cut back to six furlongs in the Cheveley Park, staying well balanced down into The Dip, the famed low point on the Newmarket straight course, and blasting out of it through the final uphill section. It will take a lot of bad luck to get her beat, and Ryan Moore mitigates the chance of that. The others are good, but not at the same level. Anshoda, purchased by American connections after her second start, has far more to offer than she showed last time. She led that day, not her usual style, and probably got lost out there in front. Anshoda rates similarly to Fiery Lucy, a little scrapper who might have hung last time in the Weld Stakes after looking like a winner a half-furlong out. Heavens Gate beat her in the Weld, sitting midpack and finishing strongly after making the pace in her previous start. Also trained by O’Brien, she can’t touch her stablemate if Lake Victoria runs to form. Juvenile Hill Road, a European, and Ecoro Azel from Japan merit only passing mention. Shin Believe deserves a look. An $800,000 sale purchase in Florida this past March, Shin Believe debuted in a nine-furlong maiden race, his lone start, like a horse who’d been racing for years. He relaxed beautifully, going along with easy, loping strides, and showed eye-catching acceleration when asked to make a run, which he sustained impressively. As good as he looked in his first race, he seems like a horse capable of improving in his second, though he lands in what appears to be an above-par Juvenile. Juvenile Turf The Beyer Speed Figures New Century and Al Qudra earned finishing one-two in the Summer Stakes make them seem like top-level 2-year-old turf route horses. They aren’t. William Buick, stable rider for trainer Charlie Appleby, rides not Al Qudra but his stablemate Aomori City. Before shipping to Canada, Al Qudra beat New Century in a listed race at Ascot in July, not a typical fast track to stardom. To his credit, Al Qudra has improved his gate habits after poor breaks in his first two starts, and he did lack room finishing fifth in the Coventry. New Century showed a new dimension at Woodbine, coming from eighth after racing closer to the lead if not on it in England, which wasn’t so much a style change but the result of a far faster pace than those back home. Aomori City gamely won his debut at Nottingham, pushed to the wire by a horse who finished 12 lengths clear of third. He had enough speed to race close to the likes of Whistlejacket over six furlongs in the July Stakes, but Aomori City wanted more distance. He got it in the Vintage, getting a perfect pocket trip on the way to a comfortable score over a modest foe, albeit while getting experience around a turn. His fourth in the National came without trouble and lacked luster, and you’d have to project two-turn improvement to feel strongly about his chances. Two others exit the National, Seagulls Eleven and Henri Matisse. Seagulls Eleven possesses some speed and has been treated like a good horse, yet has done little this year to truly distinguish himself. Henri Matisse rates as the leading European hope and will win if he gets his act together, which is no sure thing. :: Get Breeders' Cup Betting Strategies from Brad Free and David Aragona for exclusive wager recommendations and play the races with confidence! Henri Matisse has improved his start since poor dispatches his first two races, but even in his wins he seems to hang, preferring to stay alongside than go past. He probably is a better horse than Scorthy Champ but failed to reach him in the National, prompting O’Brien to try blinkers in France, which didn’t work. Henri Matisse broke well enough but got in tight along the fence and had to be steadied early on the turn, eventually coming through on the inside for his stretch run but going one-paced late in the game. Moore rode him conservatively to the wire, and Henri Matisse now gets back on the firmer turf he prefers, while O’Brien ends the one-race blinkers experiment. The colt doesn’t have enough of an edge to make mistakes and win. The Waco Kid, Seagulls Eleven’s Hugo Palmer-trained stablemate, hit a new level last out in the Tattersalls, not only turning back several challenges after leading, but widening his advantage through the last 100 yards. He had never run so well before, and even that performance might not win here. And finally, there’s just no dismissing the Japan-based horse in this race, either, since Satono Carnaval has done nothing wrong winning his first two starts. Both came over sprint trips, and he looked more comfortable first out going seven furlongs left-handed than second out, when he went six right-handed. He never felt the crop winning his debut by a vast margin and might’ve beaten a useful horse last time while racing over a distance short of his best. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.