While there are a number of ways to prepare before wagering on a Standardbred race, most people use past performances at some point in the process. History is our guide as we try to predict the future result of races, so ignoring what has happened in previous years no matter how detached it seems is unwise. Some of the most unpredictable racing results seem to occur in elimination races, and the Meadowlands will host 20 such contests this weekend as the fields are narrowed down for the Breeders Crown. The question is: Do the statistics prove true that elimination races tend to produce strange results? The results are somewhat mixed. There have been 61 Breeders Crown elimination races contested over the last three years. Of those, 34 have been won by favorites (55%), a chalk success rate that far exceeds the norm at any track in North America. What's interesting is that if you break it down by age, the success rate of 2-year-old favorites checks in at 65%, versus 50% for older performers and only 30% with 3-year-olds during that period. Can we glean from the above numbers that you are safer wagering on the best 2-year-olds than their 3-year-old counterparts? Maybe...but maybe not. Consider that 3-year-old favorites won nine of 13 elimination races at the Meadowlands and Woodbine Mohawk Park in 2021 and 2022, respectively, but only two of 10 contests at Harrah's Hoosier Park last year. Meanwhile, 2-year-olds won eight of 10 races at Hoosier but just nine of 16 at the other two tracks. It is difficult to uncover any trend from the numbers other than that favorites have an above average chance of success in elimination races despite the preconceived notion that they are vulnerable. With that we dug deeper into trainer statistics to see what can be learned and found some interesting results. Not surprisingly, Ron Burke leads all trainers with 62 Breeders Crown elimination starters from 2021 to 2023 (he has 23 entered this weekend). He owns a reasonable 13% win rate and comes in just under 39% in terms of being in the top-three. So in general his horses race well, but they really deliver when going off as the favorite. The five chalks he has sent to post have produced four winners. ► Sign up for our FREE DRF Harness Digest Newsletter Some of the Burke barn favorites to watch include Looksgoodinloulou (Friday, race three), Rose (Friday, race seven), Louprint and Sippinonsearoc (Friday, race eight) and Bythemissal (Saturday, race eight). With a bit of racing luck, the trainer is certainly poised to double the number of finals (two) he has won over the last three years. A distant but clear second in terms of total starters is Tony Alagna. He has sent 39 horses behind the gate and won a paltry 5% of the time while finishing in-the-money a very solid 41%. It is worth noting that he has only sent out one horse as the favorite in the 39 races, so it is not surprising that he doesn't have a ton of victories. Using his horses at prices to hit the exotics seems like a viable strategy. Alagna sends out 10 starters in the Crown eliminations and one sure-fire favorite in Metro winner Fallout (Friday, race 10). His other serious contender is in race six Saturday with Better Is Nice, a sharp 3-year-old colt pacer that went over one million in earnings in his last start. By far the most prolific trainer in the Breeders Crown eliminations and finals is Ake Svanstedt. His stable is hitting at a powerful 26.6% (eight for 30) on the win end in eliminations and an eye-popping 63% for top-three. Svanstedt has also won NINE Crown finals, basically triple that of any other trainer. It is made even more interesting when you realize that he didn't win any Crown races during his first half-dozen years in the United States. It clearly took him some time to find the right training pattern to make sure his horses peak at the Breeders Crown, but now you can clearly bet his barn with confidence during the series, though three of his eight favorites during the last three years did come up short. Those looking to jump on the Svanstedt bandwagon will find 12 opportunities throughout the Friday and Saturday cards at the Meadowlands. Interestingly, it is questionable that he'll have any favorites from that group and with Jiggy Jog retired he's lost his one Crown lock, so maybe his incredible run is in jeopardy. Two trainers to consider avoiding on the win end in the eliminations are Nancy Takter and Marcus Melander. The former has won just two of 27 races over the last three years (26% ITM), and the latter is even worse at one-for-26 (46% ITM). The in-the-money numbers tell you that Melander's horses are at least getting pieces of the exotics, but he's only won with one of four favorites. At least Takter is two-for-four with favorites winning. Takter has 12 horses in-to-go during the weekend with a few of them likely to be favorites or at least low on the tote board, so it will be interesting to see if her stats turn around. Some of her trainees to watch are Captain Optimistic (Friday, race eight), McCrunch (Saturday, race three) and Hambletonian winner Karl (Saturday, race nine). Melander checks in one behind Takter with 11 horses slated for the Crown elimination round and he too has some potentially short-priced horses to watch. Recent stakes winners Super Chapter (Friday, race 11), Kentucky Championship Series winner Date Night Hanover (Saturday, race four) and the late-blooming Vic Zelenskyy (Saturday, race nine) are all horses to keep an eye on. Now, if you are looking for favorites to trust, Nifty Norman and Noel Daley are your guys. Norman has watched all three of his favorites win, and Daley has seen all of his four chalks score. Interestingly, his other four starters haven't hit the board. Norman only has two starters in the Crown elims and both drew outside as longshots, so there really isn't opportunity to take advantage, but Daley has eight starters, including likely favorites Sig Sauer (race two) and Captain Albano (race three) on Saturday. The absolute best news I can offer is that the weather Friday afternoon calls for 67 degrees and sunny while Saturday night should offer temps in the low 50's with clear skies. Actually I lied because the early forecast for the Breeders Crown finals on October 25 and 26 is also for clear skies and low 50's on the thermometer. Could we get a rare weekend of Crown finals without rain, snow or freezing temperatures? Fingers crossed!