Belmont Stakes picks and analysis from Daily Racing Form handicappers across the United States. 2023 Belmont Stakes (Race 13) Distance: 1 1/2 miles Track: Belmont Park  Post time: 7:02 p.m. Eastern TV: FOX Post  Horse Trainer Jockey Odds 1. Tapit Shoes Brad Cox Jose Ortiz 20-1 2. Tapit Trice Todd Pletcher Luis Saez 3-1 3. Arcangelo Jena Antonucci Javier Castellano 8-1 4. National Treasure Bob Baffert John Velazquez 5-1 5. Il Miracolo Antonio Sano Marcos Menenses 30-1 6. Forte Todd Pletcher Irad Ortiz, Jr. 5-2 7. Hit Show Brad Cox Manny Franco 10-1 8. Angel of Empire Brad Cox Flavien Prat 7-2 9. Red Route One Steve Asmussen Joel Rosario 15-1 :: Get free DRF Formulator past performances for the 2023 Belmont Stakes Mike Beer 1. Hit Show 2. Tapit Trice 3. Angel of Empire 4. Forte HIT SHOW has yet to run as fast as any of the three morning-line favorites for the Belmont Stakes, though he has improved steadily through racing while showing a potent combination of tactical speed and finishing power. He was defeated in his final Derby prep while getting a less-than-ideal trip, then ran a deceptively good race in Kentucky when unnecessarily kept after a strong pace from the start yet still staying gamely to the end. He might not get the credit he deserves for that effort, and he has the pedigree to handle this added distance. TAPIT TRICE has always looked like a colt who would relish longer distances, but he was supposed to run better in the Derby considering the pace he had in front of him that day. He didn’t appear to have any serious trouble but could only manage an even finish and checked in a disappointing seventh as a close second choice in the wagering. He was trending the right way leading into that last one and might be perfectly suited to this race over this track. ANGEL OF EMPIRE wound up favored in the Derby after Forte was forced to scratch, and he took another step forward while earning a 104 Beyer Speed Figure – best in the Belmont field – though he did so with a great trip into a fast pace and was only third best in the end. He is unlikely to be favored this time, despite being fastest on the way in, and is a serious threat coming in fresh after skipping the Preakness. FORTE was a late scratch from the Derby, and his connections were then forced to watch from the sidelines as Mage, a horse whom Forte had defeated twice at Gulfstream, rallied to pull off the upset. Due to the formalities surrounding such a scratch, Forte also was forced to miss the Preakness, though he has continued to train right along in the interim. He has his work cut out for him trying 1 1/2 miles after 70 days on the sidelines, but he was the top colt in this division leading up to the Kentucky Derby and still holds that spot until he is defeated on the track. Brad Free 1. National Treasure 2. Angel of Empire 3. Forte 4. Hit Show NATIONAL TREASURE, who missed the Kentucky Derby and won the Preakness, has turned the corner. Although he benefited by a slow pace to win the Preakness in front-running fashion, he also showed grit fighting back to defeat a Grade 1 winner by a head. It was the first time National Treasure was tenacious in a race. The light bulb switched on, apparently. A front-runner/presser, National Treasure should get another comfortable trip in a race without much pace. He is a fresh horse making only his third start since January, with a flashy workout over the Belmont Park surface this week. National Treasure will get the jump on his late-running rivals. ANGEL OF EMPIRE, third as the Derby favorite before skipping the Preakness, will rally from behind. He was the top Midwest 3-year-old in spring based on his crusher in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, and is the highest Derby finisher running in the Belmont. Although a tepid pace could be problematic for Angel of Empire, he has earned a higher figure every dirt start. His 104 Beyer in the Derby is the top figure in the Belmont. FORTE, champion juvenile male last year and 2 for 2 this year, faces a tall order running 1 1/2 miles in his first start since April 1. But a high-finish comeback is not unprecedented. Gronkowski entered the 2018 Belmont having not run since March 30 and finished second to heavily favored Justify. Forte has worked very well for his first start in 10 weeks. The colt’s five-race win streak includes four Grade 1s dating to September. HIT SHOW was not disgraced finishing fifth in the Derby. Sound familiar? A year ago, Mo Donegal finished fifth in the Derby, and won the Belmont. Hit Show’s speed figures continue to ascend; he could slip through the cracks in the betting. Lightly raced Arcangelo lost ground in the Peter Pan, but overcame a wide trip to win by a head. He has never gone backward on figures, and his connections paid $50,000 to supplement to the Belmont. Arcangelo enters with a pattern similar to 2014 Belmont winner Tonalist, whose Peter Pan and Belmont wins were the fourth and fifth starts of his career. Tapit Trice is probably better than his Derby seventh indicates; his Blue Grass victory two back puts him in the hunt. Red Route One will be rolling late. Tapit Shoes will be forwardly placed trying to take advantage of a likely tepid pace. Il Miracolo has no chance on paper but he could influence the pace. :: Bet the Belmont Stakes with confidence! Join DRF Bets and get a $250 deposit match bonus, $10 free bet, and FREE DRF Formulator! Marcus Hersh 1. Arcangelo 2. Angel of Empire 3. National Treasure 4. Tapit Trice Gotta say, I’m headed into the third leg of the Triple Crown not all that excited about anyone in the first two legs save Two Phil’s, who easily ran the best race in the Derby. My Preakness takeaway – just not a very good race. The Derby fell apart, right into the lap of the winner, Mage, and the third-place finisher, ANGEL OF EMPIRE, who is going to take all sorts of betting here. Favoritism could fall to Angel of Empire, though TAPIT TRICE is going to take a world of betting. Tapit Trice ran precisely the race in the Derby I thought he would, and my position now is he’s still being vastly overrated. People love a big, strong, gray horse – they just do.  Tapit Trice beat Blazing Sevens by several lengths in the Blue Grass, but Blazing Sevens took a leap forward in the Preakness, and I see the Blue Grass more as an indictment of the Preakness than a mark in Tapit Trice’s favor. His vaunted gallop-outs after his recent Belmont works came with his ears pinned; truth be told, I didn’t love those drills. I toyed with wise-guying Tapit Trice’s all but forgotten stablemate, Forte, into the Belmont pick. His Florida Derby shined brighter after Mage’s Kentucky Derby, but the racing and work pattern is just too sketchy for a colt I’d have doubted at 1 1/2 miles in a best-case scenario. NATIONAL TREASURE could shake loose and has enough grind to him that I could see him getting 1 1/2 miles decently. I doubt he’ll relish the trip, but National Treasure does come into this a fresh horse. Blinkers on Angel of Empire – odd timing. Trainer Brad Cox is 5-1-0-1 the last five years with first-time blinkers in graded dirt-route stakes, the win coming with Mandaloun in the 2021 Risen Star. It’s definitely true that you don’t want to fall too far behind in the Belmont, and maybe this keeps Angel of Empire more readily in the game. I do think he’s a better horse than Tapit Trice and might not be treated as such, and a touch of value could even accrue. Anyway, my answer is, none of the above. ARCANGELO only truly caught my eye when he took so much betting in the Peter Pan. The colt made that look like smart money.  You know who’s a better horse than Verifying, the Blue Grass runner-up to Tapit Trice? His stablemate, Bishops Bay, whom Arcangelo ran down with a 12.12-second final furlong in the Peter Pan. Those two colts finished very, very strongly for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on dirt. Yes, it’s going back a way, but Arcangelo’s third dam, Better Than Honour, produced Belmont winners Rags to Riches and Jazil. His sire, Arrogate, adds more stamina. I loved Arcangelo’s relaxed major work for this on May 31. He rolled along like a true staying horse, and the gallop-out went on as long as the supposed work that ended at the wire. Arcangelo is fresh, has a win over the track, has pace to stay in range, and isn’t fully exposed. Sign me up at 8-1. :: DRF's Belmont Headquarters: Contenders, latest news, and more Dan Illman 1. Angel of Empire 2. Hit Show 3. National Treasure 4. Arcangelo ANGEL OF EMPIRE captured two key preps in the run-up to the first Saturday in May, then broke through with a career-best Beyer Speed Figure performance when a good third in the Derby. He worked out a nice closer’s trip as he settled behind a fast pace, saved ground on the backstretch, followed the winner’s move on the second turn, and then stayed on in the stretch. He’s a late-running type who would appreciate a bit of pace help up front, but he looks like a horse that is moving forward with each start. He shows two sub-1:00 five-furlong breezes leading up to this race and appears to have bounced out of his Derby effort in good order. HIT SHOW raced close to that explosive early pace in the Derby, made a four-wide bid into contention turning for home, then understandably flattened out a bit in the final three-sixteenths. His Beyers have improved in every start, and he ran some very competitive races in New York two and three starts back. The underrated colt has the tactical speed to adapt to any sort of pace scenario and boasts a strong stamina pedigree. An interesting contender at a price.  NATIONAL TREASURE took advantage of a heady ride from John Velazquez to upend Derby winner Mage in the Preakness. Velazquez used this colt’s speed from the outset, and they controlled a moderate pace on the backstretch. National Treasure was confronted with a strong stretch challenge from Blazing Sevens, but bravely turned that horse away in the stretch. His early speed should play well in this Belmont, and he should be right there when the real racing commences. ARCANGELO is an interesting new face stretching out around two turns for the first time after taking the local prep for the Belmont, the Peter Pan at nine furlongs. This lightly raced colt has plenty of upside potential and received a competitive Beyer for the Peter Pan. This does appear to be a strong class hike, however.  In many ways, Forte is the one to beat, but will be a short price in this race, and questions abound after he was scratched from the Derby with a foot issue. He is an extremely talented horse and wouldn’t be a surprise in the slightest, but he’ll have to go a demanding 1 1/2 miles off a layoff of more than two months. :: DRF Belmont Stakes Package: Save on PPs, Clocker Reports, Betting Strategies, and more. Mike Weslch 1. Arcangelo 2. Angel of Empire 3. Tapit Trice 4. Forte He won his maiden during the winter of his 3-year-old campaign at Gulfstream Park, won his stakes debut in the Peter Pan in just his fourth career start, and trained as well as anyone locally in the weeks leading up to the Belmont Stakes. Sounds like a description of 2014 Belmont winner Tonalist. It also describes the résumé of 2023 Belmont contender ARCANGELO, who also has come a long way in a short time and may be the value play in this year’s Belmont Stakes.  A couple of  unlucky trips kept Arcangelo from winning his maiden until his third start and even then had to overcome a more eventful run to finally earn his diploma. The good-looking son of Arrogate, who certainly has the pedigree to stay 1 1/2 miles, then took a huge leap forward to beat a slightly lesser experienced but extremely talented Bishops Bay stretching to nine furlongs in the Peter Pan. Equally important is the manner in which he’s suddenly been able to temper his speed in the morning, when bullet works were pretty much the norm prior to the Peter Pan, posting instead a couple of easy and relatively slow five-furlong breezes punctuated by strong gallop-outs of up to 1 1/8 miles in the weeks leading up to this race. Tonalist was a generous 9-1 winning this event nine years ago. Expecting about the same price on this guy Saturday. ANGEL OF EMPIRE has been a model of consistency all season long and while he did come up a bit short in the Derby, he was bogged down in arguably the deeper going along the rail for more than half the race before finishing best of all through the final furlong. Has seemingly trained just as well coming out of the race as going in and will finally get a chance to run in the blinkers he worked so well in on a regular basis prior to and since the Derby. He is obviously going to need some pace as is TAPIT TRICE, who fell to the rear of the field and never really got untracked en route to a disappointing seventh-place finish in the Derby. His Blue Grass effort was a big one, he surely has the looks and breeding of a Belmont winner, and couldn’t be training any better coming up to the race, but for all those reasons figures to be vastly overbet as well. Reigning Juvenile champion FORTE may still be the most talented member of this division and he too has looked sharp in his final preparations leading up to this race, although his ability to stay the distance, which was always a bit suspect, is probably even more so now considering he must accomplish the daunting task without the benefit of having had a start since the Florida Derby ten weeks ago.  National Treasure should again have a pace edge in this lineup, and his final work earlier this week was a very good one but can’t get past the notion he got away with murder on the front end against a softer bunch in Baltimore and now returns on relatively short rest to go 1 1/2 miles off a pretty grueling stretch run just three weeks earlier. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.