Q. The Louisiana Derby was run at 1 3/16 miles in 1:56.47, earning a 91 Beyer Speed Figure. The New Orleans Classic, run earlier on the card, was run in 1:50.27, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 98. This seems very odd as it would equate, approximately, to 1 3/16 miles in 1:56.80, slower than the Derby time. Unless there was some incredible speed-up in the track, it seems to me that the Louisiana Derby Beyer Figure should be much higher than 91. In fact, I would estimate it to be about 102, assuming the track speed was the same for both races. Your thoughts? –John M. Heft, Aliso, Viejo, Calif.   A. The speed of the Fair Grounds track was consistent throughout the card of March 21. The Beyer Speed Figure of 98 made sense for the horses in the New Orleans Classic, and you are correct that the final time of the Louisiana Derby, won by Wells Bayou, was several points faster than the Classic. But if you look at the other races on the card, you’ll see the problems that confronted Randy Moss, who has made our Fair Grounds figures for many years. “If the Louisiana Derby gets a 102,” Randy said, “we must give Bonny’s South’s win in the Fair Grounds Oaks a half-hour earlier a 98.” (None of the top finishers in that field had ever earned a figure as high as 80.) “We’d have to give a maiden race for 3-year-olds a 97.” (The winner Mystic Guide had previously run a 72.) Randy concluded that the key to understanding the day was the slow pace of the New Orleans Classic. This was a solid field of older stakes horses, but the fractional times for the race – a half-mile in 50.09, six furlongs in 1:14.36 – were slower than any of the five other two-turn dirt races on the card. The winner, By My Standards, should have been capable of running faster than the Louisiana Derby, but after the slow pace he couldn’t do it. If we dismiss the slow final time of the Classic as an aberration, all of the other races make sense, with Wells Bayou earning a 91 in the Derby, a number that was consistent with the previous best efforts of the 2-3-4 finishers in the field. But what do we do with the New Orleans Classic? A figure lower than 91 wouldn’t have made sense for By My Standards or the runners behind him. In cases such as this, where the final time has been significantly affected by a slow pace, we “project” a figure – we assign the race a figure that reflects the ability of the horses in the field. We believe that the figures of 98 for the Classic and 91 for the Derby do just that, though we would be happier if the data for the day had been more straightforward.