When Oaklawn Park ran the Arkansas Derby in two divisions, with a stakes for older horses between them, the back-to-back-to-back 1 1/8-mile races offered an ideal way to gauge the ability of the victorious 3-year-olds, Charlatan and Nadal. Unexpectedly, there was another race on the Saturday card that was important and intriguing. It was a low-level allowance event for 3-year-old fillies won by Gamine, a stablemate of Charlatan and Nadal in Bob Baffert’s powerful barn. Those of us who make speed figures were left to wonder if her performance stamped her as a superstar, or if it was an aberration. Horse                 Time               BSF Charlatan            1:48.49            96 Nadal                  1:48.34            98 By My Standards  1:47.80          102 An inexperienced 3-year-old would have to be exceptional to run as fast as stakes-quality older horses, and neither Charlatan nor Nadal could match the time of By My Standards in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. While both colts ran creditably, Charlatan’s 96 was a letdown after he had won his first two starts with imposing speed figures of 105 and 106. The son of champion sprinter Speightstown has a pedigree that may not be suited for classic distances. His stamina now looks like more of a question mark after he regressed 10 points while stretching out from eight furlongs to nine furlongs. He did not look like a potential Kentucky Derby winner. Nadal did, after finishing explosively in his victory. :: To stay up to date, follow us on: Facebook | Instagram | Twitter The calculation of these figures was straightforward, but Gamine’s race was hard to understand. In her second career start, she ran 1 1/16 miles in 1:41.91, which is almost exactly the equivalent of Nadal’s performance at 1 1/8 miles. If the $1.8 million filly had won in a runaway, we would readily believe that she earned a big figure. But Gamine held on to win by a mere neck over Speech, who had won only a maiden race in a four-start career. If the allowance race received a figure of 98, putting it in line with the major stakes on the card, these would be the speed figures for the top four finishers, as compared to the previous three starts of each. Horse             previous starts Gamine           98-87 Speech            97-81-77-86 Queen Bridget  87-73-73-62 Kiss the Girl     78-56-66-52 Can we believe that each of the three fillies behind Gamine improved by 14 or more points over her most recent start? In such cases, the fast time might be due to a change in the speed of the racing surface or a timing error. When results defy logic, we may “project” a figure – assign the race a number that reflects the established ability of the horses. I doubted that this field could have produced a winning figure of 98, but I deferred to Randy Moss, who makes our speed figures for Oaklawn. He has calculated figures at the track since the 1970s, when he was a teenager handicapping races for the Arkansas Gazette, so he knows it well. Randy telephoned the track superintendent, who assured him that the same amount of water had been used before every race. Randy timed the race and confirmed that 1:41.91 was correct. He texted Bob Baffert, asking, “How good is Gamine?” The trainer replied: “Superstar.” Randy confidently assigned the race a 98, establishing Gamine as one of the country’s best 3-year-olds of either sex. But Speech earns a 97, and I am dubious that she is the second-best 3-year-old filly in the United States. We wish that every figure we publish could be as definitive as those for Nadal and Charlatan, but, as every horseplayer knows, this game is filled with uncertainties.