DEL MAR, Calif. – Although both stakes Saturday at Del Mar are historically among the most predictable races of summer, a challenging pace scenario complicates matters for favorites in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch and $150,000 California Dreamin’. Hirsch favorites won 14 of 23 since 2000, but front-running favorite Adare Manor is not likely for the same soft trip she exploited in two recent Grade 2 races. The sprinter Elm Drive is expected to set the pace in the Hirsch; Fun to Dream also possesses speed. At a mile and a sixteenth, the $400,000 Hirsch offers a fees-paid berth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. If the pace of the Hirsch gets extreme, late-runners Desert Dawn and Kirstenbosch merit upset consideration over Adare Manor. The Hirsch is race 10 on Saturday. A similar concern faces front-runner Kings River Knight in the California Dreamin’, a California-bred turf stakes won by favorites 9 of 17 times since its 2006 inaugural. Kings River Knight enters the 1 1/16-mile turf race on a two-race, front-running win streak, but he will not be loose on the lead Saturday. :: Visit the Del Mar Handicapping Store for Past Performances, Clocker Reports, Picks, Betting Strategies, and more. Other front-runners in the California Dreamin’ include Larry’s Legend, Jimmy Blue Jeans, and Bally’s Charm. The front end could be crowded, which would be fine for Carmelita’s Man, a late-runner who won the 2022 California Dreamin’. The California-bred stakes is race 9 on Saturday. Bob Baffert trains likely Hirsch favorite Adare Manor, who emerged this year as the top filly or mare in California winning two Grade 2 races at Santa Anita – the Santa Maria and Santa Margarita. In both races, jockey Juan Hernandez put her on the lead and she won by more than four lengths. Adare Manor is unlikely to see the lead Saturday, which does not preclude victory. It only means Adare Manor may need to employ a new style – chasing the pace rather than setting the pace. If she relaxes comfortably, the issue is moot and the parade of Hirsch chalk will continue. But sprinter Elm Drive is the most important Hirsch entrant due to her role as likely pacesetter. All three starts this year were sprint stakes – victories on turf and dirt, and third last out in a Grade 2. Phil D’Amato trains Elm Drive, whose style Saturday is clear. “I would think in that kind of race, we’re the speed of the speed,” D’Amato said. “You have a filly with her speed in good form, in a Grade 1 that doesn’t look like it’s coming up super deep.” Elm Drive, whose rider is Ricky Gonzalez, posted two sharp recent works at Del Mar including a five-furlong drill with a big gallop-out July 30. Elm Drive, who misfired her previous route race, will lead the Hirsch as far as she can. D’Amato also has the Hirsch covered from the back of the five-runner field with Desert Dawn. The trainer said the late-runner “has had two sensational breezes down here.I really think she likes this track.” Desert Dawn finished second in the 2022 Hirsch at Del Mar. Last out, Desert Dawn finished seven lengths behind Adare Manor, partly due to strategy. Desert Dawn is a late-runner, but D’Amato and jockey Umberto Rispoli tried new tactics by asking the filly for speed to press Adare Manor. The strategy backfired. Desert Dawn pressed, cracked, and finished third. “We tried something different,” D’Amato said. “I took her out of her style and maybe I ran her back too quick.” Desert Dawn can drop out early and rally late behind a legitimate pace. Desert Dawn, who last year won the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks and finished third in the Kentucky Oaks, probably has her best chance of the 2023 season on Saturday. Fun to Dream, the second Baffert runner and graded sprint winner, could start as second betting choice. She has not raced since finishing second in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile in March, but worked well for her comeback. Ramon Vazquez, regular rider of Elm Drive, moves for the first time to Fun to Dream. Kirstenbosch, whose trainer John Sadler has won the Hirsch a record five times, will rally late under Hector Berrios. A Grade 3 winner, Kirstenbosch won an allowance in her only start at Del Mar last summer. The likely longest shot in the field is not impossible if the pace gets hot. Ultimately, Adare Manor figures to win the Hirsch if she rations her speed, avoids a pace duel with Elm Drive and Fun to Dream, and holds off the rallies of Desert Dawn and Kirstenbosch. The California Dreamin’ attracted 10 entrants led by Kings River Knight. Three starts for Sadler since he relocated from Andy Mathis in Northern California produced a runner-up finish to The Chosen Vron and two front-running route stakes wins on turf and dirt. Even though Kings River Knight wired the field both recent, he won from off the pace twice last year. Rispoli rides Kings River Knight. Regular rider Hernandez is serving a three-day suspension, but can ride Adare Manor in the Hirsch. :: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.